Stormy Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 DMX a bit humorous regarding the models for next week:Beyond Sunday night, models are clueless ranging from a weakridge with shortwaves riding across Iowa with varying intensities toanother deep low dropping out of Canada. Just left the model blendsin for that period since there is no consensus whatsoever.At least they are stating it as it is... models are pretty clueless at times. lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 At least they are stating it as it is... models are pretty clueless at times. lolGFS is clueless in the long term. Has been for a long time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Oh for sure! 11-12 was going to be the Mother of all wicked winters! After (4) above avg snowy winters in a row (a Chicagoland first), we should've known how that'd work out. And honestly, just based on that fact alone (stretching our luck too far) I really felt uneasy with all the hype. Same thing way back with 82-83. After the brutal prior winter, they called for an even more severe winter. I called that the "hind-casting" era. Thinking that what happened before was some kind of trend or something. As for winters being forecast warm-n-dry, as Okwx says, I think 15-16 Super-Nino was the last one expected to be such. That was a FAIL as it went on to be a fairly snowy and at times cold season. But, not to be denied, the following winter that was supposed to be a healthy flip to Nina ended up acting like the Nino we didn't get. Gotta keep us guessing I guess..Yep, nobody knows what next winter will be like. Just because a semi permanent hp ridge or other features such as warm or cold ocean water are forecast to be in certain regions doesn't say how the weather will be like in a month or more because those weather altering features can and do move or change. But us as humans like to know what's in the future so it's interesting to see what it might hold and what's ahead! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 It just became tropical depression 11. Forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm with winds of 40mph. Looks to be a big rain maker in southeast Texas. The NWS said some of that moisture will or could be drawn north into the Midwest increasing heavy rain potential this weekend. Today isn't as warm as the previous two days, but it's still very muggy. Last I checked it was 80°/71° here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 It just became tropical depression 11. Forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm with winds of 40mph. Looks to be a big rain maker in southeast Texas.Wow. That kinda escalated a bit. Yesterday or day before it wasn't forecast to become even a tropical depression. Has a nice, tight little circulation spinning there over TX right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 September in a nutshell....Shows no signs of stopping.After a rain delay of 2 days, summer rolls on...I live in the wrong place. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 This endless Summer is getting irritating to say the least. Not even one day with lows in the 40s on the GFS. We had cooler temps in July here than we have on any model in the next 10 days. Bleh. 75.2*F. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northland09 Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 Since we've had our False Fall and now we are in our Second Summer, the bees have been relentless because they know Actual Fall will be coming here soon. It's tough doing anything outside without really having to watch your back because of them! Reached 91 degrees today at our place. I know we've been spoiled with the cool weather lately, but because of it, my body can't take this heat anymore! I can't wait until this streak is done and hopefully it will stay away after this until next year... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 17, 2019 Report Share Posted September 17, 2019 It's looking like TS Imelda will bring south Texas 5-10" of rain. While east of Dallas will get 3-4' or so. The DFW area still see's .50-1" Temps will be in the high 80's Thurs - Sat, the several days in the low 90's and another chance of rain in a week and high 80's. So, the weather has turned and we will be on our way to Fall. That's how it works down here. One good TS or Hurricane in September and we're on the downhill slide. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Such a beautiful evening outside. Crystal clear skies and calm winds. Temps are at 63F. Splendid!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Still 80 degrees at nearly midnight here with a warm south breeze. Feels more like July than September 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Im so ready for it to be 60s for highs and dipping into the 40s at night. October is probably my favorite month, so I hope things cool off soon. CPC keeps it warm for the next few weeks though, so blehh. Feel bad for you all in Nebraska though lol omg, can’t even imagine how much that sucks right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 This is pretty incredible to see the LRC still cycling back to a similar pattern we saw way back in mid October! When I saw the models start forecasting a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners region for a few days in a row between Sept 23rd-27th, I told myself, "wait a minute, I've seen this before." After looking back at my notes from Oct 15th-19th, wouldn't ya know it, there was a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners that spun around for 4 days. I believe Gary dubbed it "the trough that never left". In any case, the old LRC is mixing in with the new pattern ever so slightly towards the end of the month and boy is it going to produce a very wet pattern across the Central CONUS to close out Sept. Early season cold is going to creep into the northern tier of our Sub and very warm air coming up from the south will likely clash and create a very active pattern/SW Flow. The models are even picking up on the same storm system that targeted the Baja region back on Oct 12th-14th and its due between Sept 23rd-25th near the Baja. 00z GFS is showing it right on schedule! Pretty fascinating... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Using the EAR, we are going to see a large scale storm coming out of the Rockies between Sept 27th-29th and cutting NW. I could see this one bringing heavy early season mountain snows and quite a storm for the northern tier to close out Sept. All the models are locked on a Typhoon tracking from the S/N near Japan between Sept 21st-23rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 This is pretty incredible to see the LRC still cycling back to a similar pattern we saw way back in mid October! When I saw the models start forecasting a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners region for a few days in a row between Sept 23rd-27th, I told myself, "wait a minute, I've seen this before." After looking back at my notes from Oct 15th-19th, wouldn't ya know it, there was a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners that spun around for 4 days. I believe Gary dubbed it "the trough that never left". In any case, the old LRC is mixing in with the new pattern ever so slightly towards the end of the month and boy is it going to produce a very wet pattern across the Central CONUS to close out Sept. Early season cold is going to creep into the northern tier of our Sub and very warm air coming up from the south will likely clash and create a very active pattern/SW Flow. The models are even picking up on the same storm system that targeted the Baja region back on Oct 12th-14th and its due between Sept 23rd-25th near the Baja. 00z GFS is showing it right on schedule! Pretty fascinating... In every cycle this part of the pattern has produced at least 3-7 inches of rain for me. I would expect another 5in over the next 7 days in what has been one of the wettest years on record for western MO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Ridge in the south or southeastern US for the foreseeable future. This september should finish as one the 10 warmest here. Flatly disappointed in this neverending summer. On the other hand, as I've called it earlier in the summer, for vegetable growers and other folks, it's been a year of plenty. Seeing last years weather pattern pop up in the extended range really is just about like a slap in the face, honestly. It's been the most frustrating 4-5 weather years of my life. Talk about learning patience. Geez. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 70/58. That high was cooler then areas near the lake shore but in line to areas to the east of GR. Ionia reported a high of just 65. Hillsdale reported a high of 69. Lansing had a high between reporting hours of 74 (just) 73 during a reporting hour. Mt Pleasant reported a high of 72. And here at my house the high was 73. But at the lake shore reports of highs in the upper 70’s and some 80’s were reported that may have been helped by down slopping. For today September 18th the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 72/52 the record high was 94 way back in 1906 the record low was 35 set in 1973. The warmest minimum was 69 set in 1942 the record coldest maximum was 55 in 1901. Last year the H/L was 83/64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Since we've had our False Fall and now we are in our Second Summer, the bees have been relentless because they know Actual Fall will be coming here soon. It's tough doing anything outside without really having to watch your back because of them! Reached 91 degrees today at our place. I know we've been spoiled with the cool weather lately, but because of it, my body can't take this heat anymore! I can't wait until this streak is done and hopefully it will stay away after this until next year...I agree on the bees. They are absolutely relentless right now. This has been the worst period for bees and wasps that I can remember. I’ve encountered a few ground nests in my yard, and my neighbor stepped into a hornets nest a few weeks ago in her yard. 31 stings. She was rushed to the ER with her vitals going up and down. On the positive side, my raspberry bushes have never been fuller because of the nice pollination taking place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Picked up about 0.3” of rain this morning. Nothing severe but there were some nice cloud to cloud bolts flashing during the drive into work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Sunny skies (not a cloud to be seen) n temps are at 65F. Absolutely gorgeous day outside. This whole week will be spectacular. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Ridge in the south or southeastern US for the foreseeable future. This september should finish as one the 10 warmest here. Flatly disappointed in this neverending summer. On the other hand, as I've called it earlier in the summer, for vegetable growers and other folks, it's been a year of plenty. Seeing last years weather pattern pop up in the extended range really is just about like a slap in the face, honestly. It's been the most frustrating 4-5 weather years of my life. Talk about learning patience. Geez.You should move north (if life allows you to that is) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Hurricane Humberto now a CAT3 (120mph). As for Bermuda, Hurricane Warning has been posted. TS Jerry is expected to become a Hurricane in the coming days. Jerry is likely to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands. The Bahamians are probably not happy w Jerry. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 The cooldown that was expected early next week is gone. The 60s have been replaced by 70s all of next week. There are also chances of storms as well. I could use some severe weather, even in early October, b4 the cold air really locks in and ends the severe weather season until next Spring. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 You should move north (if life allows you to that is)If I move anywhere, it'll be N. Michigan or eastern Tennessee/Western N.C. If the Good Lord allows, I will one day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 I wonder if there is any chance that the line of storms in Central Iowa could move into Eastern Iowa later today. HRRR doesn't show it moving here, but HRRR did not see the storm complex that moved across Iowa back on Saturday that caused the delays of the cy-hawk game in Ames. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 I wonder if there is any chance that the line of storms in Central Iowa could move into Eastern Iowa later today. HRRR doesn't show it moving here, but HRRR did not see the storm complex that moved across Iowa back on Saturday that caused the delays of the cy-hawk game in Ames.Raining good here with quite a bit of thunder and occasional lightning. Southern part of the line fell apart but it's back building a bit west of here. Maybe it will last a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 The line is still holding together. I sure hope it makes it to Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 That's got some southern movement to it, right? Kind of hoping it doesn't make it over here, because I have some grass to cut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 DMX said storm motion may only be 5mph tonight. They are concerned about heavy rain potential and the Saturday setup is looking more interesting. I'm glad to finally have some active weather. No cooldown in sight though. Looks like 70s and 80s through next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 For some reason that storm is severe warned. Outflow was down to I-80 in central Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 DVN had been down today, but it just started back up... just in time for the storms. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 If I move anywhere, it'll be N. Michigan or eastern Tennessee/Western N.C.If the Good Lord allows, I will one day.The winters will probably be still milder if you move east where you mentioned, unless it's up in the hills of the Smoky Mts. Or maybe those mountains aren't in that area? Kind of thought they were. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 It's definitely going to rain just enough to where I can't cut the grass, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Other small cells popping up further southwest too. Wasn't expecting any storms this soon. I like this warm weather if it causes storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Total bust by the HRRR. It had no thunderstorms in Eastern Iowa today. Line is getting really close to the Cedar Rapids area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Urbana spotter report of nearly 1" of rainfall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Flood watch issued for tonight into early tomorrow afternoon here. Could be a noisy night! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 That little cell dropped 0.33" here. Up to 0.90" fell in Marion. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted September 18, 2019 Report Share Posted September 18, 2019 Outflow got here around 5:00pm. Feels good. Two severe warned cells to my west and southwest. Edit: Actually those storms really weakened already. WPC 7 day QPF has a lollipop over or near Kansas City. Rainfall looks to be almost as heavy in Mo. as in east Tx! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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