October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Same with 2002, especially solar wise.

Yes, it has issues. While it’s the closest QBO match going back to the 1950s, solar forcing and the stratospheric chemistry/BDC health overall was quite unfavorable until the mid/late 2000s.

[Timmy]

Anyone have an answer to my bees late in the year phenomenon?

they seem to be gone here.

[Deweydog]

Anyone have an answer to my bees late in the year phenomenon?

1-10-17.

[Timmy Supercell]

74/27 at KLMT. In the category of low temperatures, this looks like the coolest first week of October in some years.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Well. My first winter in Central Oregon. I will bring an epic arctic year with me. -10 here means snow for pdx/seatac.

 

My first in Whatcom County. Weather was hardly the main reason for my moving here, but I'd be lying if I said it played no consideration whatsoever.

[MossMan]

.29” on the day so far. Currently cloudy and 55.

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyway - it was a beautiful day in Everett. Started off with some partial sun, brisk temps, and then was later greeted with a warm south wind with weak gusts. Wind died down, clouds came in from the north, got a bit cooler, and now I have some classic November gray out there.

 

On a side note - please keep the politics, social issues, and whatnot out of this and any other weather thread. Its one thing where it is a quick back and fourth, but another when it just takes up page after page and I have to go hunting for the DJ Droppin or SnowWiz post. I've moved the conversation to the politics thread and will keep doing so. It's October now, so we have stuff to watch for, speculate over, and discuss.

No worries. I just sort of joined in the fray and commented once or twice. I was pleasantly surprised and pleased that everyone remained quite civil and considering the topic that's not common often things turn south real fast when discussing politics.

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

[snow_wizard]

My first in Whatcom County. Weather was hardly the main reason for my moving here, but I'd be lying if I said it played no consideration whatsoever.

 

Whatcom has long fascinated me.  If you want to see what amazing things are possible check out the daily records for Clearbrook in Jan 1950 or the winter of 1936-37.  In my book 1936-37 was the flat out perfect winter there.  I remember various newscasts years ago that showed the north half of the county in conditions that looked more like North Dakota.

[snow_wizard]

Why do you torment yourself like this?

 

Uh....current ENSO conditions are flat azz neutral.  No way to deny it.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at past cases of significant early to mid October cold snaps 1985 and 1949 are really good fits.  Both had similar 500mb progressions and the classic two piece surface high complex with half over the NE Pacific and half over Western Canada.  Given the results of those two events we should have a shot at seeing max temps in the upper 40s in some places over the next couple of day with lows mid 20s to low 30s.  Maybe a low 20s sneaking in somewhere.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looking at past cases of significant early to mid October cold snaps 1985 and 1949 are really good fits. Both had similar 500mb progressions and the classic two piece surface high complex with half over the NE Pacific and half over Western Canada. Given the results of those two events we should have a shot at seeing max temps in the upper 40s in some places over the next couple of day with lows mid 20s to low 30s. Maybe a low 20s sneaking in somewhere.

looking forward to it. Could be another interesting system in the cards in a week or so as well!

[MossMan]

Major dumpage currently.

[TacomaWaWx]

Major dumpage currently.

Just adding on to that half foot of rain you got last month lol. We only got 0.08” so far today and 0.13” for the month now. You probably have received my monthly rain total in the last 30 minutes.

[snow_wizard]

Man this thing looks cold.  Also note the two additional chilly periods showing up now!

 

[GHweatherChris]

11/20

[Blizzard777]

65/44 with .05 precipitation here

Looking forward to the winds coming from the North so leaves go away from my yard!

[snow_wizard]

11/20

 

This could go one of two ways.  We either continue down a pretty steady path to something big in the late autumn / very early winter time frame, or we get into a much milder and stormy pattern with nasty cold in mid winter.  Not sure which is most likely yet.

[snow_wizard]

65/44 with .05 precipitation here

Looking forward to the winds coming from the North so leaves go away from my yard!

 

The wind shift is rapidly spreading southward.  This is essentially an Arctic front, but so early the air is only fairly cold instead of brutal.  This coming cold snap should produce much larger minus departures for the Seattle area than the last one.  Much more favorable evolution on this one.

[High Desert Mat?]

Well. My first winter in Central Oregon. I will bring an epic arctic year with me. -10 here means snow for pdx/seatac.

Jinx!!

[GHweatherChris]

This could go one of two ways. We either continue down a pretty steady path to something big in the late autumn / very early winter time frame, or we get into a much milder and stormy pattern with nasty cold in mid winter. Not sure which is most likely yet.

I am thinking a decent shot of lowland snow at some point 11/20-Thanksgiving, turning mildish until mid December and then we see the hammer coming down through 1/17.

[North_County]

My first in Whatcom County. Weather was hardly the main reason for my moving here, but I'd be lying if I said it played no consideration whatsoever.

Welcome to Whatcom. The exciting/frustrating thing about winter weather here is that we seem to get our best storms when the rest of Western Washington is getting cold rain (see: pretty much all of 2017-2018); and conversely, when Puget Sound is getting the goods, we get icy, dry wind (see: February 2019). And of course, north Whatcom and south Whatcom can feel like entirely different worlds in the right outflow conditions.

[snow_wizard]

Welcome to Whatcom. The exciting/frustrating thing about winter weather here is that we seem to get our best storms when the rest of Western Washington is getting cold rain (see: pretty much all of 2017-2018); and conversely, when Puget Sound is getting the goods, we get icy, dry wind (see: February 2019). And of course, north Whatcom and south Whatcom can feel like entirely different worlds in the right outflow conditions.

 

The true greats deliver for everybody though.  We are quite due for one of those.

[High Desert Mat?]

How old are you snow wiz?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

71/39 on the day. Currently 64F with increasing clouds. There will probly be a crazy temp gradient between me and Jim tonight.  He will get down into the low 40s to upper 30s while I will still be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

[Front Ranger]

This could go one of two ways. We either continue down a pretty steady path to something big in the late autumn / very early winter time frame, or we get into a much milder and stormy pattern with nasty cold in mid winter. Not sure which is most likely yet.

Anything is possible.

 

Including scenarios not listed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How old are you snow wiz?

I think he just turned 86

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like there’s a north wind in Everett but a south wind still in Seattle at the moment.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to be hard to beat last year for snow in this area over here. That is a Honda civic under 30 inches of snow.

[Jesse]

Major dumpage currently.

High fiber diet paying off?

[Blizzard777]

Looks like there’s a north wind in Everett but a south wind still in Seattle at the moment.

The maples to my south are killing me with helicopter seeds today! By morning hopefully the switch will have taken place.

Let the cooling begin

[Deweydog]

If y’all haven’t altered your Thanksgiving plans to make them indoors now is the time.

 

#bringajacket

[Jesse]

Sort of interesting to see my high today a little after sunset. Only hit 65 here this afternoon, but a warming SE wind has kicked in this evening pushing the temp up to 66.

 

Might be a lot of midnight highs tomorrow, and 11:59pm lows.

[ShawniganLake]

Arctic front charging thru Lytton at the moment

[Deweydog]

Sort of interesting to see my high today a little after sunset. Only hit 65 here this afternoon, but a warming SE wind has kicked in this evening pushing the temp up to 66.

 

Might be a lot of midnight highs tomorrow, and 11:59pm lows.

12:53 a.m. low in the weather world, boo.

[Deweydog]

Arctic front charging thru Lytton at the moment

Pics or it didn’t happen.

[Jesse]

12:53 a.m. low in the weather world, boo.

They count the 5 minute obs after 12:53. That’s how the September 24th miracle happened.

[ShawniganLake]

Pics or it didn’t happen.

[Jesse]

ECBF6E02-3B68-4B48-B8E7-0DBEC3AC6124.png

A 13F drop in two hours in a well mixed air mass is pretty good.

[ShawniganLake]

A 13F drop in two hours in a well mixed air mass is pretty good.

Clinton BC

 

[Gradient Keeper]

It is a VERY mild and breezy evening

 

Temp 64.5, Southwest Winds 20-30mph near West Gresham. It *Feels* like Fall out there!

PDX and Troutdale are at 66 degrees now!