December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

They did? Lol. What the hell are you spewing?

The UJEAS was the worst imaginary model in history.

[High Desert Mat?]

You say that like it’s common..we haven’t had a derecho since 2016 and 3 out of every 5 winters has

Right. He lives closer to the coast than you think K. It’s just when they do get a snowstorm it’s plastered all over the news 24/7. And if you weren’t in a weather forum you wouldn’t even hear of such derechos.

[BLI snowman]

December 2019 Justin sounds an awful lot like January 2019 Justin.

Hey, if you want to bet on another historically flukish progression like last winter repeating a year later, be my guest. Probably won't happen again for awhile though.

 

And I'm not even going so far as to say that this winter is a total no-show. Just that it would hardly be be surprising, and there aren't really any encouraging signs at the moment. And early speculation that it would be momentously blocky appears now to be inaccurate.

 

I'd probably actually bet on at least one decent pattern emerging at some point, though.

[Phil]

Doesn't always work like that, though.

I’d think the troposphere would be more receptive to a SSW this winter than last winter, if anything, since we have easterly shear downwelling instead of westerly shear.

 

Whether that translates to a favorable pattern in the Pacific is debatable but it would at least increase the likelihood of Justin eating crow.

[Omegaraptor]

Rain is exciting? Lol.

You have to remember how boring the lowland PNW climate actually is in winter, aside from the once-in-a-blue-moon cold and snow.

 

Thanks to our maritime (Latin for toilet) temperature profile in winter, high temperatures rarely stray more than about 6°F from average. Actual heavy pounding rain is fairly infrequent. Inversions often put a damper on abnormal warmth events that don’t come from ARs (sorry, I don’t find 40°F with soupy fog and poor air quality interesting) until some point in early-mid March. There’s a reason why this forum gets excited over backdoor “blasts” that might deliver one or two sub-40 highs at best.

[Front Ranger]

Hey, if you want to bet on another historically flukish progression like last winter repeating a year later, be my guest. Probably won't happen again for awhile though.

 

And I'm not even going so far as to say that this winter is a total no-show. Just that it would hardly be be surprising, and there aren't really any encouraging signs at the moment. And early speculation that it would be momentously blocky appears now to be inaccurate.

 

I'd probably actually bet on at least one decent pattern emerging at some point, though.

 

I predicted modest, but respectable snow totals for SEA and PDX this winter. I'm not expecting a blockbuster winter, though I do think there are decent odds you get pretty cold at some point.

 

Way too early to make judgements on the cold season...but it has certainly been blocky with a weak jet stream. Doesn't mean super cold, all the time.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

#pray4phil

[Front Ranger]

I take it the 18z was epic!!

 

It looked moderately interesting days 9-10. Cool with low snow levels.

 

The CMC looked more interesting, though.

 

[Blizzard777]

Looks exciting in Seattle. One of the many times I wished I lived there! Winds are picking up here though, so there’s hope for a stormy night!

I can assure you nothing exciting as of yet up here in the south sound. Normal rain with some heavier drops here and there.  

wind calm

.31 for the day so far

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F with occasional light rain.  Most of the action is north.  Feels balmy.

[Guest CulverJosh]

The front will sag south at some point. Then it will turn into California again.

[MossMan]

I must be in the eye of the Cat. 4! Just a few sprinkles and a little breezy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The front will sag south at some point. Then it will turn into California again.

 

It will be splitting as it pulls through Saturday.

[jcmcgaffey]

Over an inch here in north seattle and we are just getting started.

[Guest CulverJosh]

It will be splitting as it pulls through Saturday.

No sheeit. That is what I was saying.

[El_Nina]

Getting warm nosed. 0.90" on the day tho at least.

[Deweydog]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like the NWS is going with the GFS

 

 

 

Hopefully that verifies because the 00z NAM came in way drier.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

I’ll say it is nice to finally get some good heavy rain. I feel like we have been stuck in an inversion pattern with no sun or good solid rain. Is there any season when a split flow pattern is a good thing?!

[umadbro]

Up to .86" today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully that verifies because the 00z NAM came in way drier.

 

 

NAM will likely verify.

[Requiem]

[jcmcgaffey]

Leavenworth looks beautiful right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like orographic flow is keeping the precip going at my place right now... Was in the low 60s and sunny here in NE Oklahoma today. 

 

Speaking of the 18z... It was pretty nice. Some ensemble noise around the 30th. Who knows. I still have some hope for January.

[MossMan]

Over an inch here in north seattle and we are just getting started.

Up to .08” on the day here! However my weather station is angrily flashing rain clouds so there is that!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Lol. The Portland dome is so ridiculous sometimes. Worse in Clackamas County.

 

There is literally heavy flooding rain everywhere but Portland metro. It skips Portland and then orographic lift is soaking the mountains.

[TacomaWaWx]

We have picked up .46 so far and .77 since yesterday evening. Raining pretty good outside, temp shot up from 43 a couple hours ago to 50 now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[GHweatherChris]

20 inches of melted snow has fallen here since 9 AM. Based on 10:1 ratio.

[Winterdog]

Only .14” here so far. I’m being followed by a rain shadow, rain shadow, rain shadow

[Timmy]

Looks like most places Salem to pdx have picked up .5 -.75” of rain so far. Future models will show less every time because a good chunk of rain has already fallen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like most places Salem to pdx have picked up .5 -.75” of rain so far. Future models will show less every time because a good chunk of rain has already falle

 

 

True

[Deweydog]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just had our best CFS run in about a week today. It was not great, but better than what it has been showing. 

[Deweydog]

Toasty out.

[MossMan]

Toasty out.

Yep, up to 46.

[Requiem]

I'm hoping the wind forecasts pan out-- though I'm skeptical.

[El_Nina]

Days start getting shorter in just 6 months.

[Omegaraptor]

54 at HIO. 55 is looking probable, wonder if we can crack 56+.

 

NAM gets us up to 57.