Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Christensen87]

It’s amazing how the mid week low is all over the place in the models, like it’s 3 days away and still we have no idea what’s going to happen. Crazy. At least it looks like there won’t be as much east wind, so hopefully that’ll help accumulation around the Sound.

[MossMan]

It’s amazing how the mid week low is all over the place in the models, like it’s 3 days away and still we have no idea what’s going to happen. Crazy. At least it looks like there won’t be as much east wind, so hopefully that’ll help accumulation around the Sound.

Deep negative PNA is hard on the models. Gives them fits.

[MikeInEverett]

CZ is setting up just a few miles south of me for now lol

[MikeBC]

I haven't posted here for several years. I decided to doit today as the observation of the arctic front has always intrigued me. This front definitely remains me of January 2012 but this coming one is moving faster than this one. The front is just before Agassiz now as it has already past Hope.

 

Hope obv.

11am-33F

Now- 25F

[kokaneekidz]

The million dollar question is can we possibly end up with as bad of an outcome as depicted on the 12z ECMWF.  Probably the most dramatic model change I have seen at this time frame for that model in years.  It is worse on literally every aspect of this.  We'll see how the 18z GFS and the 0z runs look tonight.

ET phone home fix broken hardware and software promptly...

[bainbridgekid]

Big looking stuff moving into Bellingham off the Straight of Georgia.

 

Will be interesting to see how that energy impacts things further South this evening.

[bainbridgekid]

I haven't posted here for several years. I decided to doit today as the observation of the arctic front has always intrigued me. This front definitely remains me of January 2012 but this coming one is moving faster than this one. The front is just before Agassiz now as it has passed Hope.

 

Hope obv.

11am-33F

Now- 26F

Good to have you back! Let us know when the North winds hit you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I haven't posted here for several years. I decided to doit today as the observation of the arctic front has always intrigued me. This front definitely remains me of January 2012 but this coming one is moving faster than this one. The front is just before Agassiz now as it has passed Hope.

 

Hope obv.

11am-33F

Now- 26F

 

I remember you. Welcome back. Should be a good event up there!

[The Swamp]

Marysville to Bothell is looking ripe.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

40F with some drizzle here. The breezy SW winds are subsiding

 

Currently 41F here with strong westerlies pushing down the Juan de Fuca. Once the low passes a little further east it will go from working against the incoming outflow to assisting it. EC still hasn't issued a snowfall advisory for our area so we still have a chance.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Timberline's base just hit 100".

[jcmcgaffey]

Stupid.

 

I said to Jim last night that a blend might work out. I have been positive for the areas that I think have a good chance. Not going out of my way to say anything bad just to say it.

 

I posted the WRF and the ECMWF maps. What else are we going to use? I never said this will not happen at all.

 

But hey... attack the guy posting the snow maps. If the ECMWF is bad then it's really me saying it's bad.

 

I have no idea why the mets were so aggressive. I don't know what they were thinking.

. I’m not trying to attack you just give some feedback and really it doesn’t matter cause I agree with you that people should be able to post what they want and what they are thinking and you have done that well from my perspective but the last few days I feel like you changed a bit to being more pessimistic than normal about what everyone else was posting even though there weren’t being wishcast thoughts.

[GHweatherChris]

[Front Ranger]

Nice little squall line with a burst of wind and downpour here currently. Friend reported heavy hail on South Whidbey from the same squall about 20 minutes ago.

 

Looks like that AFD writer was right. Convective!

[Bham_Guy]

Big looking stuff moving into Bellingham off the Straight of Georgia.

 

Will be interesting to see how that energy impacts things further South this evening.

 

We'll probably see some ice pellets mix in with these showers and a decent temp drop. Just hoping we get some more organized precip later this afternoon and evening.

[Deweydog]

12 PM 925:

 

925mb (17).gif

Bearing down on us!!!

[wxmet]

Healthy c-zone. Let’s hope enough CAA can push it further south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I love the look of the satellite picture.  I have a feeling there is going to be a massive CV somewhere up north that just nukes them. 6-10" of snow.

 

Why thank you.

[seattleweatherguy]

Marysville to Bothell is looking ripe.

So far just rain and 35 per car thermometer

[MikeBC]

I remember you. Welcome back. Should be a good event up there!

Thanks, looking forward to post here more often again.

[IceKing]

Mammatus clouds from Marysville

 

 

This guy had a better view from Arlington, however.

https://twitter.com/f3akhil/status/1216459947765952512?s=19

[seattleweatherguy]

Getting mixed now

[wxmet]

Looks like Seattle will spend the majority of the day being shadowed until if/when the c-zone arrives.

[MossMan]

My pile of shoveled deck snow from Friday has mostly survived!

[TT-SEA]

. I’m not trying to attack you just give some feedback and really it doesn’t matter cause I agree with you that people should be able to post what they want and what they are thinking and you have done that well from my perspective but the last few days I feel like you changed a bit to being more pessimistic than normal about what everyone else was posting even though there weren’t being wishcast thoughts.

 

I have not randomly changed to pessimistic.   The ECMWF and WRF changed.   I don't have much else to go on.  I am not going to sit here and make up stuff just to make people feel better.     There is no point in that.   Other people do that... look to them for that kind of stuff.   That is never going to be me. 

 

But I sure as hell am not being negative just to be negative.   I have made literally hundreds of positive posts based on genuinely positive things I have seen.   Those seem to be universally ignored by some people.       

[Requiem]

I have not randomly changed to pessimistic.   The ECMWF and WRF changed.   I don't have much else to go on.  I am not going to sit here and make up stuff just to make people feel better.     There is no point in that.   Other people do that... look to them for that kind of stuff.   That is never going to be me. 

 

But I sure as hell am not being negative just to be negative.   I have made literally hundreds of positive posts based on genuinely positive things I have seen.   Those seem to be universally ignored by some people.       

 

Tim-- positive things for the Portland area that you have observed for later this week?

[Deweydog]

Tim!!!!

 

Make it snow at my house!!!

[MossMan]

Mammatus clouds from Marysville

 

20200112_125504.jpg

 

This guy had a better view from Arlington, however.

https://twitter.com/f3akhil/status/1216459947765952512?s=19

What part of Marysville are you located?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43 in Bellingham. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing!

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like Seattle will spend the majority of the day being shadowed until if/when the c-zone arrives.

The average person walking the street today would just think it’s nice and blustery.

[Perturbed Member]

Like the NAM 18z ICON is coming in weaker and further south with that Wednesday low FWIW. Hopefully a trend we will see on other models. 

[bainbridgekid]

Reinforcements are coming from the North.

 

That is the energy I would expect to set off additional shower/CZ activity this evening.

 

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hope is down to 26F from 33F 2 hours ago, time to start the Fraser Valley stations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim-- positive things for the Portland area that you have observed for later this week?

 

12z GFS. 

[MossMan]

43 in Bellingham.

37 here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Agassiz BC showing strong NE winds now. Closing in on Chilliwack BC.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This reminds me of a tamer December 1990. That day of the big arctic front was much like today. There were hail showers and heavy rain showers that fueled the front.

[TT-SEA]

Just looking at the precip map (not snow)... here is the 12Z ECMWF from 12-3 today.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like Seattle will spend the majority of the day being shadowed until if/when the c-zone arrives.

That's often happens before they get hit with CZ/Arctic front snow. 

 

Same thing happened on 12/17/08. Was entirely shadowed the whole day from the system and then the CZ gave a widespread 3-6" late that night.