Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Randyc321]

Randy will have 8 inches on ground by 10am. Bets??

 

That's better than having it at your back door!

[MossMan]

It’s running!!!

The DeweyMattLawyer GFS run of the decade!

[Deweydog]

The DeweyMattLawyer GFS run of the decade!

Been waiting over 109 hours for this....

[kokaneekidz]

Been waiting over 109 hours for this....

How much for a retainer?

[Chewbacca Defense]

Wind still "calm" but rain is now hitting the north side of the house instead of the south side.  Temp has dropped 2 degrees in the past hour and the pressure got down to 29.44, and is starting to rise again.  I'm guessing the low has passed by.

[GHweatherChris]

Graupel and snow!!

[Deweydog]

How much for a retainer?

How much you got?

[TT-SEA]

My son is in Ellensburg now. I can tell it was pretty scary for him over the pass. He is usually confident driving but not today.

 

He just sent me this pic...

 

[Bham_Guy]

Wind still "calm" but rain is now hitting the north side of the house instead of the south side.  Temp has dropped 2 degrees in the past hour and the pressure got down to 29.44, and is starting to rise again.  I'm guessing the low has passed by.

 

A few flakes mixing in on the northwest side of town.

[GHweatherChris]

My son is in Ellensburg now. I can tell it was pretty scary for him over the pass. He is usually confident driving but not today.

 

He just sent me this pic...

 

https://i.postimg.cc/s2d6CKJ9/Screenshot-20200112-134547-Gallery.jp

Texting while driving...

[Blizzard777]

Anvil has formed

[bainbridgekid]

Giant wet flakes briefly mixed in here in South Everett.

[umadbro]

Hrrr with steady bands of light snow over Clark county tonight.

[Requiem]

Superb. GFS is folding to the EURO. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crazy gradient. Low 30s just across the US/CA border and almost 50F here. This sucks.

[TT-SEA]

Anvil has formed

You have such a cool view of it from your area. Its dry here but there are lots of low clouds so we can't see it to the north.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Current conditions in Hope:

 

[jakerepp]

Temps are being lowered directly as a result of the c-zone. That is not arctic air on the north side. This is just a traditional c-zone that happens all year long with rain after a departing low.

Yeah I wasn’t claiming it was at all. Just thought it was interesting. Very, very wet snow here.

[Deweydog]

Anymore trolling is just going to be a ban.

Does this include you?

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Looks amazing in Hope. Actually above freezing here now and things are thawing.

[wxmet]

GFS showing the trough further west over Canada (which has been a trend over the past few runs) with a stronger high at the surface and a stronger low for the mid-week system. Trough further west increases the upper level confluence and allows the shortwave to tilt negative.

[Blizzard777]

You have such a cool view of it from your area. Its dry here but there are lots of low clouds so we can't see it to the north.

Torment to view sometimes when it’s so close. Although I am getting huge rowdy winds feeding this monster!

nice consolation prize 

[Requiem]

Time to live vicariously through Seattle traffic cams for the second year in a row, I guess...

[kokaneekidz]

How much you got?

88 loonies and zero toonies

[Deweydog]

GFS is still clueless for mid week.

 

Sorry guyz. I was wrong.

[mtep]

Very wet snow in Bham!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Down from 41F to 38F here with WNW winds, getting into that colder offshore airmass.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My son is in Ellensburg now. I can tell it was pretty scary for him over the pass. He is usually confident driving but not today.

He just sent me this pic...

Sure as fuckk dont look like that 5 miles east. I am stuck in traffic west boubd

[bainbridgekid]

Getting crazy about 3 miles South of here in Lynnwood.

 

[wxmet]

Still works out nicely for many.

 

[BothellTransplant]

Snowing pretty hard in Bothell. It's trying to stick to the grass.

[Deweydog]

I have never seen a surface low dissipate that quickly. Not even close. It’s very likely.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There was a foot of snow cle elum

[TT-SEA]

Time to live vicariously through Seattle traffic cams for the second year in a row, I guess...

Don't worry... highly unlikely the 18Z GFS has it figured out. Although it did move towards the ECMWF and EPS and the control run.

[OysterPrintout]

Superb. GFS is folding to the EURO. 

 

Pretty big difference between mouth of columbia (18z gfs) and vancouver island (euro). Still a lot of runs to go.

[snow_wizard]

Color me impressed.  The 18z GFS not only doesn't go toward the ECMWF it's actually colder than the previous few GFS runs.  510 thickness line much further south.

[TacomaWaWx]

Color me impressed.  The 18z GFS not only doesn't go toward the ECMWF it's actually colder than the previous few GFS runs.  510 thickness line much further south.

I was about to say probably best gfs run in days. Colder thicknesses and 850s.

[OysterPrintout]

Dewey if I'm being totally honest this doesn't feel like a run that gave us a very clear picture.

[HighlandExperience]

Color me impressed. The 18z GFS not only doesn't go toward the ECMWF it's actually colder than the previous few GFS runs. 510 thickness line much further south.

Looks snowy. But I’ll be skeptical if we don’t get decent snow tonight

[wxmet]

I have never seen a surface low dissipate that quickly. Not even close. It’s very likely.

 

500mb tells the story. The energy with the shortwave de-amplifies as it approach the coast and subsequently the surface reflection weakens as well.