snowstorm83 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Only hope here is that models are overdoing the WAA. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Almost all of those are really nice hits for me That's why WPC has you in the Hvy Snow contour no doubt. They go by percentages and right now they're in your favor. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 If one recalls the 11/30-12/01 storm, it also shot a SLP rather far N, then due to the blocking, it stalled, headed E about a state, state and a half before dipping back a bit ESE skirting the southern edge of Michigan before devolving eastward as the EC energy took over. The models showing a multi-wave scenario where the initial gets kinda northward, and a secondary re-develops would kinda fit the LRC's take on this event. Ofc, nothing set in rock yet, but I'm not going to presume the GFS's warmer look is the "final answer" either. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks like this storm will have less ice to content with than the previous storm, thankfully. So, either you are getting all snow, mix snow n rain, or snow to rain and etc and etc. There will be no warm air overriding the cold air this time to create that darn ice. Yayyyyyyyy!!!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro also has the surface trough extending into MN and has a lot more rain than previous runs. Snow totals for CR/IC halved to 3”. God this winter sucks 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro is now trending toward the warmer GFS. Just end this stupid winter already. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 If one recalls the 11/30-12/01 storm, it also shot a SLP rather far N, then due to the blocking, it stalled, headed E about a state, state and a half before dipping back a bit ESE skirting the southern edge of Michigan before devolving eastward as the EC energy took over. The models showing a multi-wave scenario where the initial gets kinda northward, and a secondary re-develops would kinda fit the LRC's take on this event. Ofc, nothing set in rock yet, but I'm not going to presume the GFS's warmer look is the "final answer" either. What about the Euro's warmer look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Sigh... well maybe they will all be wrong again and we’ll end up with a surprise this time? I’ll roll with that for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 So snow late Thursday night then as the low drags north freezing rain sets in. The maybe some rain. Friday looks like crap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Shows a pretty widespread ice storm, which if that’s the case, I’d 100% rather it just flat out rain. I absolutely hate ice, which is probably the rreason we’ll get some. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well, not sure what to say other than I fully expect the models to start lowering those ridiculously high totals. Although 1-2” is from tomorrow’s system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Snow, then ice, then rain. If it was all going to mix like that, I wish it was the other way around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gonna be a Fargo-Duluth special yet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 One thing I have learned this winter: don't trust the models until flakes are flying. They have been really overdoing things up until showtime in this neck of the woods. Cautiously optimistic is how I will approach this storm. Hope for a healthy sbow, expect 4 inches. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 If one recalls the 11/30-12/01 storm, it also shot a SLP rather far N, then due to the blocking, it stalled, headed E about a state, state and a half before dipping back a bit ESE skirting the southern edge of Michigan before devolving eastward as the EC energy took over. The models showing a multi-wave scenario where the initial gets kinda northward, and a secondary re-develops would kinda fit the LRC's take on this event. Ofc, nothing set in rock yet, but I'm not going to presume the GFS's warmer look is the "final answer" either. Yes sir! I agree. I mean, its only Tuesday! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z EPS snow mean... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 watching but not overly invested in this one, but wasnt it last Tues where things looked stronger and NW then corrected back to previous runs? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 watching but not overly invested in this one, but wasnt it last Tues where things looked stronger and NW then corrected back to previous runs?You read my mind and I was just about to say the same thing! It was 3 days prior where the storm track was right over the top of Chicago and then the SE trend began. To the contrary, however, this set up is a bit different and I could see this system end up where its being modeled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 15z SREF mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Oh yeah right on cue! But it’s not done moving north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gonna have to accept this is at best a 3-5" for most of E Iowa, which is what we typically get around here with snow storms. I'll still take it, especially if it's a daytime snow, that would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GRR forecast office calling for "Dry Slot" then PLAIN RAIN Saturday. More flooding. Yay! This winter is epic. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's ok everyone, winter always starts two weeks from now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Thinking MPX holds off on a possible watch until tomorrow to avoid confusion with tomorrow mornings snow. Plus this thing has slowed a bit. That stalled 1045mb high in S ON causing a stall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 850s on the NAM look colder compared to other models FWIW 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro is now trending toward the warmer GFS. Just end this stupid winter already.Couldn't agree more! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 The NAM sure looked good, but must be a ton of sleet and ice down here, because it only drops about 2" of snow on .7" qpf all with temps below freezing. Neat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 The NAM sure looked good, but must be a ton of sleet and ice down here, because it only drops about 2" of snow on .7" qpf all with temps below freezing. Neat.What's it look like for snow up this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 TT vs. Pivotal illustrates the sleet/ice once again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Des Moines afternoon AFD is still going with widespread snow and not much confidence in mixed precip. Interesting: The well advertised stormsystem will begin to lift across the state and while models havedelayed the start somewhat...beginning mid Friday morning, butonce it begins, snow will fall in earnest. We continue to havehigh confidence is widespread moderate to heavy snowfall...especially north and east but exact locations and amounts a stillsomewhat in question. Models hint at warmer air nosing in aloftfor a period late Friday/Friday night. This would lead to aperiod of mixed precipitation if it materialized which willimpact snow amounts somewhat. Models do not have a handle on thedetails of this so confidence is lower with respect to the mixedprecip. With freezing precip to deal with tonight and bonechilling cold Wednesday night, headlines for Friday are best leftfor a little later time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 DVN already going with 3-5" during the day Friday FridaySnow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.Friday NightSnow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 My grid has me at 100% chance of snow fri and fri nite. No mention of amounts or mixed precip yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 And I had to do a double take because DVN never does ranges (I wish they would), they always state an exact # of inches. Weird. I'm sure this will continue to change as models dry up and get warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 ^^ same here. I expect mine to change soon. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS back to colder and snowier for eastern Iowa. Hooray! Until the next run when it reverts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 ^^ baby steps, but no upper air. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 NWS here is calling for snow on Friday with a gradually transition to all rain by Saturday. Also mentions a northerly trend with this system. What did we ever do to Mother Nature that has us being tortured by her over and over again! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's ok everyone, winter always starts two weeks from now! Seems we've been hearing that since early December! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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