bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Hi-Res GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Whoops that was the 12z, here is the 18z. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I just want some D**n snow to plow so I don't go broke...jeesh 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I just want some d**n snow to plow so I don't go broke...jeeshUnfortunately, many people don't realize the economic impact of low snow winters - landscaping services that plow in winter, ski resorts, retailers that sell winter sports equipment, retailers that sell snow removal equipment and likely many more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Even if people understood what can they do! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 The opposite is true for those that pay for snow removal. Iam sure they love snow less winters. Not me, even if I couldn't do my own but just saying. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 TWC calling for 6-10" for mby. ha!!! 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 TWC calling for 6-10" for mby. ha!!!Yeah they never over do anything lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 6-12” in the point for Friday and Friday night with heavy snow wording. Still snowing into early Saturday. Afternoon disco was a total snooze fest. Must have been the winter intern at the desk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Local met has "several inches" in the forecast. Also 40mph wind Saturday. Blowing snow will be an issue. And how bout the cold coming? Single digit highs and teens BELOW zero next week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 6-12” in the point for Friday and Friday night with heavy snow wording. Still snowing into early Saturday. Afternoon disco was a total snooze fest. Must have been the winter intern at the desk.I just chatted with an old friend of mine who moved up there and he’s been loving this winter. Told him how crappy ours has been down here so far. Def a bit jelly! Good luck and enjoy another dose of white Gold! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 And I had to do a double take because DVN never does ranges (I wish they would), they always state an exact # of inches. Weird. I'm sure this will continue to change as models dry up and get warmer.Yeah since when do they do ranges? Maybe cause it’s a couple days away yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I just chatted with an old friend of mine who moved up there and he’s been loving this winter. Told him how crappy ours has been down here so far. Def a bit jelly! Good luck and enjoy another dose of white Gold!Thanks bud. It’s been a good winter so far overall. I hope this storm pans out. Would be nice though if we could get a storm that hits the majority of us. We’re way overdue for one of those. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DVN has me at 1-3” Friday then 100% chance of snow Friday night....no numbers yet for the night. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Anyone have 18z Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I heard a tad north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Snow, then ice, then rain. If it was all going to mix like that, I wish it was the other way around. Gee, sounds just like the thread title..hmmm imagine that. Doesn't say "Major Winter Storm" either like another one did. Don't know why Peeps were expecting to see 12+ over their place non-stop for (7) days in a row of model runs? That never happens in our part of the country anyways. Now for me, I'd be thrilled if the models were still showing me with 6+", but to some that's cause for "storm cancel" mode with 4 days to go until it's a wrap. As we've seen, nothing ever changes during a 4 day period of active developing dynamic weather - nothing. I'm not a fan of trends the past 24 hrs. Still, if I can snag a 3+" snowfall with cold coming on it's heels, it would be the biggest score here in 2 full months and I'd be stoked in an otherwise craptastically hostile pattern to date. Now back to following the weather and hoping for a reverse of the trends to a more favorable outcome for all. My highs are below freezing for the 2 days leading into the storm - that alone is a vast improvement over every event this cold season and is never a bad thing here. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Gee, sounds just like the thread title..hmmm imagine that. Doesn't say "Major Winter Storm" either like another one did. Don't know why Peeps were expecting to see 12+ over their place non-stop for (7) days in a row of model runs? That never happens in our part of the country anyways. Now for me, I'd be thrilled if the models were still showing me with 6+", but to some that's cause for "storm cancel" mode with 4 days to go until it's a wrap. As we've seen, nothing ever changes during a 4 day period of active developing dynamic weather - nothing. I'm not a fan of trends the past 24 hrs. Still, if I can snag a 3+" snowfall with cold coming on it's heels, it would be the biggest score here in 2 full months and I'd be stoked in an otherwise craptastically hostile pattern to date. Now back to following the weather and hoping for a reverse of the trends to a more favorable outcome for all. My highs are below freezing for the 2 days leading into the storm - that alone is a vast improvement over every event this cold season and is never a bad thing here.I was just saying I would rather it be rain, then ice, then snow, so we could end with snowfall and now rain on top of the snow that fell. Not sure if all that was aimed at me, but I think if it was, you missed the point of what I said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Anyone have 18z Euro?Here ya go. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Here is what my office is saying for the weekend, basically they don't know. Thursday - Saturday:A cold airmass will settle into the area Thursday/Thursday night ashigh pressure builds into the upper Midwest. Thursday morning lowsmay be in the single digits across northern Missouri with teenselsewhere. Thursday`s highs will be below freezing north of theMissouri river with mid 30s and warmer south. Thursday night, astemperatures fall below freezing across the forecast area, strongwarm and moist advection aloft will spread precipitation northinto the area. This sets the stage for a wintry mix/mess liftingnorthward through the day Friday. For now, have only a fewhundredths of an inch of ice forecast with several inches of snow.There could be more icing, particularly if temperatures arecooler than forecast and the warm, moist advection aloft isstronger. This is the route the NAM is going with significanticing across much of the forecast area. The GFS accumulates lessice and seems more reasonable at this time. The main uncertaintieswith this time frame come from the wide range of temperaturespossible and just how strong the warm, moist advection is and theresultant precipitation amounts. The good thing is that it lookslike we`ll warm up through the day so the main impacts will beduring the morning time frame across the KC area southward,lasting into the afternoon for northern Missouri. The other aspectof this system is the light snow accumulations possible. Theheaviest snow should be further north where the depth of the coldair would keep any mixed precipitation to a minimum. Of coursefurther south, where there is the warm layer aloft leading tomixed precipitation and/or freezing rain, snow amounts are muchless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 NOAA: Uncertainty pertaining to the Winter System Saturday...Great continuity has existed amongst the medium range model guidancein advancing a deep Pacific trough across North America lateThursday through Sunday. Consensus of the solutions suggests that asurface low will track right through portions of the cwa. There hasbeen some question regarding the timing of the parent PV anomaly.Stonybrook Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of 00Z GEFS suggested thatan overwhelming amount of the uncertainty amongst the members couldstill be explained by east to west variance of the main PV anomaly.This is on top of the d(prog)/dt trend that has existed recentlywith the slowing of the GFS operation runs. Interesting to note thateven the EOF2 explained signal shows some uncertainty with themagnitude of the MSLP over Lake Superior which is likely due totiming of the very strong inverted surface trough and is anotherindication of significant timing uncertainty. The overall patternsetup and synoptic scale features suggest a very high amount of warmair advection occurring in advance of the low due to both a +65 knotlow level jet in warm sector and also because of slab/layer liftfrom hard cyclonic rotation. Expecting a lot of warm advection. A fewthoughts...1. Be mindful of Ptype algorithms as forecast soundingssuggest precipitation rates will again be very important for groundtruth. 2. Given the large wavelength of governing features and ad(prog)/dt tendency in 12Z ECMWF for some broadening/less wrap up ofabsolute vorticity expect warm air advection to be flashing rapidlyto the east. 3. Signs suggest that high rate accumulating snowfallcould fall in a period of 6 hours or less before turning over to amix or all rain. Exact timing, duration, and snowfall intensityremains unknown at this time. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 0z NAM still bringing the sauce. C MN slam job, up towards Fargo. Nearly 12” for the metro and still snowing at the end of the run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 No show for most of iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I was just saying I would rather it be rain, then ice, then snow, so we could end with snowfall and now rain on top of the snow that fell. Not sure if all that was aimed at me, but I think if it was, you missed the point of what I said. Not at all. I merely used that part of your post to make my point that this was always known to be a "mixed bag" event/system. It wasn't billed as the Big Dog Bliz we've all been dreaming about. As for the order of precip, yeah I'd prefer it was better but what can you do? As is, I'm looking at more of a "rain sandwich" with snow-mix-rain-snow-LES. Even with the poor trends and my southern locale my grid has a mere 7 hr period of potential rain. That could be a deluge or a few hrs of drizzle and 35F (tbd). It's not beyond the realm of possibility to get that 7 hr window of warmth closed somewhat or even eliminated altogether. That's where I'm at with this. Good luck to you out there! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 No show for most of iowa Something is screwy with the NAM's snowfall maps on Pivotal. A solid band of good snow moves across the entire area, which should lead to fairly uniform snow amounts, but what Pivotal is showing is a strange series of alternating wet and dry bands. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 ICON continues to warm, now much more mix and less snow in Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 @ Niko ^^^ Looks a lot like the 18z Euro ENS 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 ICON continues to warm, now much more mix and less snow in Iowa. Yep ICON is now 99% sleet/zr for Lincoln when it was showing 8" of snow in the past. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS going to being warmer 850's this run -- pretty sure.-- but seems heavier front end snow for W IA. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 850 +0C now in MN Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I'll take the GFS- this winter has proven you can't be picky, 9" for MBY. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011500&fh=90&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The GFS actually has 4-7 inches of snow for CR/IC and areas north of I-80 in Iowa. No rain here, mostly snow with a little bit of sleet/freezing rain. I am not writting this one off here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Probably more realistic. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 @ Niko 20200114 hazards_d3_7_contours.png ^^^ Looks a lot like the 18z Euro ENS ecmwf-ensemble-c00-central-snow_72hr-9456800.pngThere ya go buddy...... Awesome...feels good to be in the "Heavy Snow" zone . 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 There ya go buddy...... Awesome...feels good to be in the "Heavy Snow" zone . Oddly, it kinda follows the path of that Dec 1st storm and where the snow line would have been during mid-winter. Ofc, it can still fall apart but yeah, it's nice to be inside the bubble, even if it's only for a day 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Oddly, it kinda follows the path of that Dec 1st storm and where the snow line would have been during mid-winter. Ofc, it can still fall apart but yeah, it's nice to be inside the bubble, even if it's only for a day Absolutely....tbh, this is turning out to be a very interesting storm. It will get very engrossing during the next couple of days. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 During the height of the storm.....no accumulation expected? Someone fire the intern.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I would take that amount of snowfall. That’s not the issue. Just don’t like the idea of rain/ice being mixed in as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 During the height of the storm.....no accumulation expected? Someone fire the intern.... GRR has put crap like that in my grid in recent winters. They need to go back to using "Light Snow" "Snow Showers" or "Flurries" like they used to do. Apparently that's too confusing or they think this hyper-reflex gen is just going to skip right to amounts so it doesn't matter. Idk but yeah, that's super lame 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 During the height of the storm.....no accumulation expected? Someone fire the intern.... That's absurd. I've noticed the grids getting goofy lately. Just yesterday the updated PM grids has low of 25F in downtown DSM while just W where I reside it was 33F. WAA worked in over night and stratus was all ready present so there was going to be no clearing of the skies. I don't think these grids get proofread - at least not a majority of them. Forecaster just changes something on computer and it's fully automated. Fully automated stuff that needs more attention than if they did it the old school way. Much like automated weather sites that crap out just when weather starts to happen. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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