August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not nearly as nice just to your north in Seattle.   Smoke models showed this happening with lingering smoke hanging tough over Seattle while it cleared faster to the north and south of there.   It's basically a c-zone signature in smoke in an area of lighter wind directly downwind from the Olympics with westerly flow. 

I can’t ever recall it clearing out so quickly. At 3 pm it was murkier than this morning. A really nice sw breeze has kicked up, which I’m sure is what pushed the smoke out. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, T-Town said:

I can’t ever recall it clearing out so quickly. At 3 pm it was murkier than this morning. A really nice sw breeze has kicked up, which I’m sure is what pushed the smoke out. 

Yeah... here is the wind map for right now.   You can see why Seattle is the last place around the Sound to clear out.  

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... here is the wind map for right now.   You can see why Seattle is the last place around the Sound to clear out.  

Getting gusts towards 20 mph here at Eastside Tacoma and also seeing that in Spanaway.

[TT-SEA]

The wind map for tomorrow during the day shows a SW breeze across the entire area.   No c-zone signature.  

 

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... here is the wind map for right now.   You can see why Seattle is the last place around the Sound to clear out.  

The Olympics play a role in our weather on a daily basis (almost). 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Grotesque

https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1693780836980543795?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Now we just need a record breaking winter ridge parked over Alaska!

[TT-SEA]

Air quality looks vastly improved in Spokane as well... with a mid level cloud deck overhead.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Grotesque

https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1693780836980543795?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Lawrence, Kansas had a 103 dew 84 obs today. Wow.

[Phishy Wx]

couple raindrops on the way back from the grocery.  might be all we get oof

[T-Town]

Mariners score 13 runs with Julio sitting. Trade Julio!!

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Mariners score 13 runs with Julio sitting. Trade Julio!!

The White Sox are a joke. Castillo had no idea where his pitches were going and it didn’t matter. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke at the lower levels is sooooo slow to clear... been watching the line move NE towards the Seattle area all day.   Its moves much slower than clouds.    But its making progress and should be all gone by morning.

It cleared out rapidly up here, but there was never much near the surface to begin with. By noon you could already see across the Strait to the Olympic Mountains again.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Mariners score 13 runs with Julio sitting. Trade Julio!!

14.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like smoke has basically cleared in Seattle in the last hour... you can see the back edge of the smoke heading east finally.  

[Cloud]

Cliff Mass posted a blog about how good the smoke models are and I have to agree… it pretty much played out how it was being forecasted and hopeful that these models will continue to improve down the road. A valuable tool for forecasting smoke.
 

it was forecasted that as the smoke leaves, the Sound lags behind a little bit with the clearance, we’re seeing that now. Extremely accurate.

I’m also seeing a turkey at Kamloops!

[RentonHill]

40 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The White Sox are a joke. Castillo had no idea where his pitches were going and it didn’t matter. 

47 straight fastballs…bold strategy cotton etc etc 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Cliff Mass posted a blog about how good the smoke models are and I have to agree… it pretty much played out how it was being forecasted and hopeful that these models will continue to improve down the road. A valuable tool for forecasting smoke.
 

it was forecasted that as the smoke leaves, the Sound lags behind a little bit with the clearance, we’re seeing that now. Extremely accurate.

I’m also seeing a turkey at Kamloops!

I was thinking the same thing... models did incredibly well even though smoke seems like a really difficult thing to predict.    

 

[skywatcher]

Smoke cleared up rapidly here. Hello, onshore flow!

[MWG]

What a nasty day out here with the smoke. There's a chance of showers tonight so let's see how it goes! 

[MV_snow]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking the same thing... models did incredibly well even though smoke seems like a really difficult thing to predict.    

 

Yup, and unfortunately the evening Canadian smoke model shows it returning on Thursday. I’ve learned not to bet against it even at 3 days out. Not sure if the model only forecasts smoke from the fires as they are now or if they incorporate possible improvements from the forecasted rain over southern BC.

[Cloud]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking the same thing... models did incredibly well even though smoke seems like a really difficult thing to predict.    

 

Great minds think alike!

[Meatyorologist]

In Vancouver BC until Thursday to see an old friend. First time out of the country. Smoke was gone from the low levels by the time I got there around 1pm, and was dissipating aloft by sunset.

[TT-SEA]

SW breeze finally punched through here.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS vs 18Z ECMWF.    I trust the ECMWF!

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like smoke is completely gone now up in Bellingham. 

No unfortunately its not.  The camera just isn't picking it up.  The low level smoke is gone, but I could not see Mt. Baker or any of the foothills tonight from the soccer complex, and the sun got very orange as it got towards the horizon.

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately the smoke is definitely back already by Thursday afternoon on the 00Z Canadian smoke model.   Maybe not as thick though.  

[TT-SEA]

And we probably won't be able to get rid of the smoke so easily next time without the benefit of a ULL moving inland.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately the smoke is definitely back already by Thursday afternoon on the 00Z Canadian smoke model.   Maybe not as thick though.  

Looks pretty thin to me… under 10 µg/m³ in most areas west of the Cascades. Anything under 50 is considered good air quality.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks pretty thin to me… under 10 µg/m³ in most areas west of the Cascades. Anything under 50 is considered good air quality.

Also... the ECMWF shows decent rain over the fire areas in southern BC which is the main source of the smoke.   

[TacomaWx]

Was barely any smoke when I went out to fox island this evening. 77/52 today. 

[TacomaWx]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS vs 18Z ECMWF.    I trust the ECMWF!

 

Would’ve been awesome to get precip further west with Hilary…but still much needed beneficial precip to the south and east. Looks like we should see some beneficial rains to BC and WA coming up too. 

[NWbyNW]

Glorious.

[NWbyNW]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke seems to be clearing at the lower levels out here too.

Currently 73 degrees.

A 10 degree difference at about the same time.  Big change.  Your current temp then was our projected high.  We only reached 65F today. 

[Phil]

12 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

Normally I'd agree, but since Dvorak technique was able to classify it, it was either transitioning and just not complete at the last dot (54N, 138W, this is the most likely scenerio since it takes 12 to 24 hours to complete, and this looks like it took 18-24 if NHC best track is to be believed), or it was able to change into subtropical and was able to be more resistant. On the flipside, I'd question the last dot since it was hour 18 and while SST's would've been 14C if we use the current maps as an analog, plus interaction with the cold front. 

 

As explained in my original post, the 2006 storm formed over 18C temperatures, and the SSTs never got warmer. 2016's Alex transitioned into a hurricane with 20C temperatures, but the NHC noted that since the "upper troposphere temperatures [were] estimated to be around -60C," (discussion 4) that extra instability was able to overcome the requirement. Now the SST's off the coast are even colder (14C on a warm day), so you would not only need the perfect conditions for the cyclone to form, but those conditions need to be there at least to the (non-existent) trench. I would bet Portland hits 120F before that happens. I would also bet we get a CDS repeat, and a 49-50 repeat despite the warming that has occured before this happens. 

No. Dvorak method tells you nothing about whether the system is tropical or subtropical. It only aims to gauge intensity of a cyclone via satellite presentation.

The intensity of subtropical cyclones can be gauged via dvorak method but often underestimates transitioning systems, hence the development of the ETT method.

This was an un-named subtropical/extratropical system. Period. There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that a warm core/tropical cyclone survived for 2+ days in waters 20°F too cold to support warm core cyclogenesis.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Lawrence, Kansas had a 103 dew 84 obs today. Wow.

That’s a big yikes.

Haven’t had a day like that since the July 2011 heatwave. Easily the worst 3 weeks of weather I can remember in my life.

[Phil]

PNW pollution starting to wrap up in the death ridge. End this season already. No one wants it.

https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693812254792171956?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[BetweenTwoFerns]

7 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks pretty thin to me… under 10 µg/m³ in most areas west of the Cascades. Anything under 50 is considered good air quality.

Think you might be confusing ug/m3 with AQI, 50 ug/m3 would be firmly in the “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups” for AQI.

[Cloud]

Euro still holding firm with precip for late Tues night - Wed morning. While GFS is blank. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

PNW pollution starting to wrap up in the death ridge. End this season already. No one wants it.

https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693812254792171956?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Some of that might be regular home-grown pollution as well trapped under the ridge. 

Meanwhile itn Seattle... we need to enjoy it while it lasts.

[TT-SEA]

48 minutes ago, BetweenTwoFerns said:

Think you might be confusing ug/m3 with AQI, 50 ug/m3 would be firmly in the “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups” for AQI.

That is my concern.    The Canadian smoke model implies a decent amount low level smoke and haze by Thursday and air quality that is less than good.