November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Kolk1604]

Did someone say the weeklies run daily now? 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

Hang in there.  We're all pulling for you.  And sorry you're going through that.

[Gradient Keeper]

I can't do Night Shift tonight. Exhausted and up early. Good night

6z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Hey man, I hope you are doing okay. There are good things coming for you, I know it! Take care of yourself because you deserve it and your family deserves to have you. Then rest up so you can do some coaster riding with us after you're feeling better. Your positive attitude in the face of some really challenging situations is an inspiration to many of us who don't know you but see you post. You will get through this! As much as we all root for snow, we're all rooting for you multitudes more.

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

I empathize with you. I’m lying awake in agony here at 3AM myself. Back hurts so bad I’m dripping with sweat. honestly don’t know what I’m doing to do, can’t sustain this much longer. Will probably end up needing surgery.

just know you’re not alone. And you’re as appreciated by everyone as you are of them.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

I empathize with you. I’m lying awake in agony here at 3AM myself. Back hurts so bad I’m dripping with sweat. honestly don’t know what I’m doing to do, can’t sustain this much longer. Will probably end up needing surgery.

just know you’re not alone. And you’re as appreciated by everyone as you are of them.  

Hows the numbness?  Have they Saud what kind if surgery?

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The things I like about this forum specifically is that it seems to be the only weather discussion outlet I've found where people actually understand and share the appeal of autistically f5ing individual model runs that you know will almost certainly never happen.

People here seem to inherently understand that sharing a long range GFS frame is not an endorsement or a statement that you 100% think that solution will happen. They get that there is an appeal to this kind of stuff beyond simply discussing the cold and often boring reality of what is for sure going to happen.

Personally, I find entertainment and value in seeing various extreme model outputs that I am well aware are highly unlikely fantasies. I also find value in cheerleading for a given scenario to play out by following it from run to run, even though I know full well that it is highly unlikely to happen as the 282 hour 18z GFS predicts. Seems like most people here feel similarly.

Literally anywhere else on the internet you will immediately get shouted down and berated by a dozen people if you even mention the existence of a single model run beyond ~72 hours. People elsewhere seem completely unable to comprehend that some others find value in looking at these hyperspecific and unlikely solutions without believing it's actually going to happen like that. I have to be an entirely different person if posting on WxTwitter or a weather subreddit somewhere, and it's usually incredibly boring.

When the GFS ensembles were hinting at Hurricane Hilary actually forming and hitting Southern California, it was a full week and a half before I could even *hint* at the possibility of it occurring on any other weather discussion outlet without getting called an irresponsible moron. There's really no community I've found like this place for anywhere except the PNW, so it makes discussing weather events outside the PNW unbearably dull.

100% agree

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

Stay safe man. Drink water.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

110% this.

I still vividly remember the funk following the December 2008 monstrosity. Between the fact it was face meltingly epic, it ended essentially on Christmas and we had two ankle biters at the time, the backside malaise was intense. 

Ouch. Must've made cleaning up those drool stains on the living room window a hefty chore.

[North_County]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Northsound snowstorm on the control next Monday/Tuesday. 

How can I sign up?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well... The models sure fell apart quickly. 

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS sure was dry.

[Snownerd3000]

Talks about idea of long range cold into western US. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... The models sure fell apart quickly. 

Still have decent EPS 

[LowerGarfield]

8 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I do really like Daniel, but he's definitely more in the camp of ultra-conservative professionals when it comes to calling big events in advance. I definitely get why he is that way, because he's a public figure at this point and can't get the general public of normies all worked up over something that isn't locked in yet. He's good at what he does, but it doesn't scratch the same itch for me that the schizoposting does here, haha. I'm super excited to move to the PNW full time so I can model ride with this place 100% of the time and not just for the times when I'm up there visiting.

When are you moving here? How's that process going? I'm a big fan of Daniel as a former Californian because just like Dr Levi, they do a good balance of laymen's terms and professional expertise. But yes, Daniel is careful but perhaps for good reason.  I met him at Picnic Day in Davis once when he was still an undergrad.

[Deweydog]

A reminder that there will be a price to pay after the big chill!

https://www.king5.com/amp/article/traffic/traffic-news/emergency-pothole-repairs-sr-18-near-tiger-mountain/281-a6272fc3-1043-4383-817a-31c83cc93cf5

[Chewbacca Defense]

So, now we're in winter cancel mode?  Anyone keeping a tally on the mood/model flip index for this round? 

 

Got 0.50" from the system yesterday/last night, and the temp got down to 41.

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So, now we're in winter cancel mode?  Anyone keeping a tally on the mood/model flip index for this round? 

 

Got 0.50" from the system yesterday/last night, and the temp got down to 41.

An interesting statistic year by year would be the number of winter cancel posts.  Which one do you think had the most?  2020-2021?

I couldn't even begin to remember which "storm" had the most number of winter cancel moments?  Gotta be one that trended north at the end.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

After winter being canceled by all of the models last night, was super nervous to check the 00Z EPS this morning, and to my surprise and I'm sure most of you were surprised too, it's about the same as yesterday 12Z. I noticed Y'all saying the 00Z EPS was worse, but atleast in my location it barely improved, ensemble mean for Thanksgivings high temp, -4.9 on the 00Z, and it was -4.8 on the 12z. Yesterday's 12z had 12 members showing above freezing high temps, and 00z only had 11.

 

I wouldn't say it really improved, but it definitely didn't get worse.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

An interesting statistic year by year would be the number of winter cancel posts.  Which one do you think had the most?  2020-2021?

I couldn't even begin to remember which "storm" had the most number of winter cancel moments?  Gotta be one that trended north at the end.

There were at least two such storms in the last two winters where the models drifted aimlessly with respect to amounts, generally in the 3–6" range, only to converge on 8–12" in the last few runs… and then verified. Fun times, those.

[jcmcgaffey]

8 hours ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

It's that excitement and enthusiasm for weather that publicly most professional mets can't seem to have because they have to be unbiased and have to make forecasts rather than rooting for a particular outcome. 

A little tangential, but I remember the first day of my Atmospheric Sciences 101 course at UW. March 31, 1997. And we had had an unpredicted wind storm the day prior. My professor basically threw out the days lesson plan to talk about the windstorm and show pictures from the radar of the low pressure system and just kind of geek out with us, most of whom would never be taking another class about weather. It was so cool to just see his love of the subject shine and teaching us through that bits of what we needed to know. We're not in that same level here (sorry to those who are mets), but that crazy enthusiasm is. Thr desire to know what's going on now, what might happen in the future, and to understand what happened in the past is in so many posters here. Gotta love it!

 

(And no, for those who might be wondering based on my name, Professor Mass was not teaching ATMOS 101 at that time. )

I took the same class at UW but 8 years later. I can’t remember who the professor was. Definitely wasn’t Mass. 

[Kayla]

12z GFS still not on board but the Canadian is a lot better. White Thanksgiving for PDX.

 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GFS still not on board but the Canadian is a lot better. White Thanksgiving for PDX.

 

just beat me to it! was going to say the same thing. 

[RentonHill]

12 hours between winter cancel and uncancel. I think that's about normal? and maybe one more hour until its canceled again. Just so everyone's on the same page. If you cant handle the heat....

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GFS still not on board but the Canadian is a lot better. White Thanksgiving for PDX.

 

The 12z GEM is now showing big time Blocking setting up in Alaska. It’s just a little too east of our desired sweet spot but it’s still over a week out. But it’s close enough for snow west of the Cascades with the setup it’s showing at the end.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

12 hours between winter cancel and uncancel. I think that's about normal? and maybe one more hour until its canceled again. Just so everyone's on the same page. If you cant handle the heat....

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

just beat me to it! was going to say the same thing. 

Looks kinda similar to the EURO with the big anomalous Alaskan Block.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

Tiger, hang in there and never give up fighting for hope. You’ve made it this far and you will continue to get better. With advances in medical technology you are in good hands. Hoping you don’t have to move to Indiana since you have lots of friends here but always do what’s best for you. 

[the_convergence_zone]

31 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

After winter being canceled by all of the models last night, was super nervous to check the 00Z EPS this morning, and to my surprise and I'm sure most of you were surprised too, it's about the same as yesterday 12Z. I noticed Y'all saying the 00Z EPS was worse, but atleast in my location it barely improved, ensemble mean for Thanksgivings high temp, -4.9 on the 00Z, and it was -4.8 on the 12z. Yesterday's 12z had 12 members showing above freezing high temps, and 00z only had 11.

 

I wouldn't say it really improved, but it definitely didn't get worse.

The EPS has remarkable run to run consistency even in instances with high uncertainty like next week. It's better dispersed than the GEFS, has more members, higher resolution, etc. It's the perfect antidote to the wild swings of +240h deterministic runs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.52" of rain overnight. Up to 6.77" on the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking forward to the EURO today, the GFS was a total trainwreck! 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The EPS has remarkable run to run consistency even in instances with high uncertainty like next week. It's better dispersed than the GEFS, has more members, higher resolution, etc. It's the perfect antidote to the wild swings of +240h deterministic runs. 

I thought I read somewhere, or maybe heard from someone here or on twitter, that the Euro (and I cant remember if it was specific to the Deterministic, or the EPS, or both or whatever) is basically a blend or average of its previous run(s) and current one, or that only changes vs previous runs that are over some threshold of significance are incorporated into the latest runs. Have you heard anything like that? I wish I knew who said something to that extent...maybe it was Snyder. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, RentonHill said:

I thought I read somewhere, or maybe heard from someone here or on twitter, that the Euro (and I cant remember if it was specific to the Deterministic, or the EPS, or both or whatever) is basically a blend or average of its previous run(s) and current one, or that only changes vs previous runs that are over some threshold of significance are incorporated into the latest runs. Have you heard anything like that? I wish I knew who said something to that extent...maybe it was Snyder. 

Hmm...that could be a reference to their data assimilation method which does incorporate previous forecasts. I feel like that is pretty standard practice but I'm not enough of an expert to know what is different relative to the GEFS. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last nights 00z CFS shows Arctic air arriving days 9/10. Even colder air by day 12.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z CFS was not good in the long range though.

Edited November 13, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

What is going on?! lol

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

I empathize with you. I’m lying awake in agony here at 3AM myself. Back hurts so bad I’m dripping with sweat. honestly don’t know what I’m doing to do, can’t sustain this much longer. Will probably end up needing surgery.

just know you’re not alone. And you’re as appreciated by everyone as you are of them.  

Hows the numbness?  Have they Said what kind if surgery?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

By the way, don't bother to look at the GEFS.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

By the way, don't bother to look at the GEFS.  

What a dumpster fire. The world's premier model is NOT on board.