November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Or they can win and make Oregon's win over UW in the Pac12 title game end their hopes, thus making Oregon's win vs them look better and putting the Ducks in the playoff.

What would be the most Pac-12 thing ever would be Oregon State winning this weekend, Oregon losing to ASU, beating Oregon State, and then beating UW in the title game to ensure no Pac-12 team in the playoff. 

[Phil]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve seen daffodils poking up as early as late December.  So could be less than 8 weeks away. 

Well hopefully it won’t be *that* warm. I don’t know how early they start in the PNW, figured it would be slower than here due to less sunlight.

Earliest I can remember imby was Dec 2015. That month was absolute nightmare fuel, started sprouting a week before Christmas and were 2-3” tall by Christmas Eve, when it was 73°F and raining at 2AM.

Funny thing is they were buried in 3 feet of snow in late January, but somehow managed to grow by 1-2” while buried under the snow, and were blooming by late February. Those f**kers are invincible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil going all in on the 1991-92 redux is the best news yet.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil going all in on the 1991-92 redux is the best news yet.

No way, stratospheric ozone/MC was already screwed to hell by Pinatubo that year. Not to mention the strongest solar/wind geomagnetic activity of the modern maximum in solar activity.

Impossible to get a worse setup than that. Even if current ENSO were a perfect clone of that year (which it isn’t) the ET outcome would still be quite different.

[runninthruda206]

16 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Sucks that you can't be there when there's sub zero temps, but hey atleast you get to be there in winter! I've spent 4 winter seasons working at Lake Louise Ski resort, and it was the most beautiful ski resort I've ever worked at, Banff is such a amazing area. I remember being there in January 1997 when it got to -40ish, can't remember what it exactly got down to, it was really darn cold!

 

Hope you have a great trip up there!

Thank you! And that sounds like such a cool experience! I've only ever been there in the summer as a kid and it was magical. My dream since then has been to see it in the winter and while I won't get to be there in sub zero, as long as there's snow on the ground, it should be as amazing as last time

Do you have any recommendations for places to go or see besides Louise?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can't wait for Ohio State to curb stomp UW and Oregon every year in the big ten. Doubt they'll ever be better than 8-4.

Fun fact, Stanford has more PAC12 championships since 99 then UW. UW is not a football school.

Oregon beat Ohio State on the road a couple years ago. I'm sure I was as shocked as you were by that one. At the end of the day Oregon has to much talent to lose more than 3 games a year. I'd say over the next decade I would expect Oregon to compete for #2 in the Big 10 with Michigan. 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Got down to 33°F and frosty this morning. Dry and blue skies currently, but 10.20" of rain for the month. Migratory ducks have been enjoying the replenished neighborhood lake. 

[TT-SEA]

Beautifully sunny day right from the start today... but chilly.    Only up to 44 in North Bend right now.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon beat Ohio State on the road a couple years ago. I'm sure I was as shocked as you were by that one. At the end of the day Oregon has to much talent to lose more than 3 games a year. I'd say over the next decade I would expect Oregon to compete for #2 in the Big 10 with Michigan. 

Yea they did props to Oregon (I was shocked when it happened). That was the second worst OSU team in 25 years and they still beat the PAC12 champ in the Rose Bowl that year. I think UW and Oregon will finish 4-7th on average in the Big Ten standings.

I believe OSU goes to Eugene next fall. I am definitely making the trip down. I'll have to hit y'all up!

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautifully sunny day right from the start today... but chilly.    Only up to 44 in North Bend right now.  

I have been loving these cold sunny days. It has been refreshing!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon beat Ohio State on the road a couple years ago. I'm sure I was as shocked as you were by that one. At the end of the day Oregon has to much talent to lose more than 3 games a year. I'd say over the next decade I would expect Oregon to compete for #2 in the Big 10 with Michigan. 

Yeah, long-term Oregon will pretty much always be up there toward the top. They've been one of the most consistent teams over the last 30 years. Especially when you compare it to the era before it. When other teams get bad, Oregon is still usually pretty good, then another team takes a shitt for a few seasons...Oregon is still usually pretty good.

Now we just need a proper snow game when Washington comes to Autzen next season for Thanksgiving weekend.

[Kolk1604]

Improvement in the medium range at least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea they did props to Oregon (I was shocked when it happened). That was the second worst OSU team in 25 years and they still beat the PAC12 champ in the Rose Bowl that year. I think UW and Oregon will finish 4-7th on average in the Big Ten standings.

I believe OSU goes to Eugene next fall. I am definitely making the trip down. I'll have to hit y'all up!

My wife had season tickets at Oregon from 2002-2019, was tough for her to let them go, but with young kids now and other priorities, setting aside 6-7 weekends every fall was just no longer something she wanted to do... And her whole crew that started going to games together in middle school also grew up and started getting obligations as well.

[Slushy Inch]

Very minor reversal. Pathetic but there is time for further changes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Improvement in the medium range at least. 

EURO is OK

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Average temps and a little rain would be a blessing, if we can pull off 4,000' snow levels it's a major win.

[Slushy Inch]

Gets chilly on Euro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Gets chilly on Euro. 

Looks like the dreaded N/S gradient. Though it is my understanding that was reversed quite a bit last winter. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Finally got the turkey up. Low of 29 this morning.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the dreaded N/S gradient. Though it is my understanding that was reversed quite a bit last winter. 

It’s headed south and Alaska ridge is shifting west and strengthening.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the dreaded N/S gradient. Though it is my understanding that was reversed quite a bit last winter. 

Turned out to be a pretty good winter for most of Oregon. Only the south Willamette Valley saw paltry amounts, everyone else did well. I'm trying to think of what areas are most due for a proper snowfall that covers the roads?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Turned out to be a pretty good winter for most of Oregon. Only the south Willamette Valley saw paltry amounts, everyone else did well. I'm trying to think of what areas are most due for a proper snowfall that covers the roads?

Albany didn't get much either. That one day in late February that PDX and Salem had a nice snow, I drove down to Albany and once you got a little south of Independence there was no snow on the ground. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I've kept quite for awhile about the reversal in the models. The models have been picking up something next week (which still to far out) but I think the models are having a difficult time figuring out what exactly is going to happen. I've seen this to many times. They show it then they take it away then show it again. As you can see, the 12Z Euro is starting to show it again. I think we need to wait until this weekend to actually know what will happen. It's a waiting game from here on.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can't wait for Ohio State to curb stomp UW and Oregon every year in the big ten. Doubt they'll ever be better than 8-4.

Fun fact, Stanford has more PAC12 championships since 99 then UW. UW is not a football school.

Stanford isn't anymore either, it appears

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

EURO has promise for next weekend. 

[Deweydog]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Average temps and a little rain would be a blessing, if we can pull off 4,000' snow levels it's a major win.

That’s coming.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

But I like snow.   

I just prefer that spring get started in February rather than winter just getting started then as we have seen in recent years.  

These are the PNW seasons.

November = early winter

December = winter

January = early spring

February = late winter

March = who the F knows and Graupel season

April = Spring

May = still Spring

June = blazing hot early fire season or late Spring

July = Summer

August = Smoke season, leave and go visit fam on the east coast

September = still smoke season

October = Leaves

[the_convergence_zone]

The Euro is showing a decent occluded front with a maritime cold airmass behind it. Better start prepping for graupel showers. Or is it ice pellets? 

[iFred]

https://github.com/google-deepmind/graphcast

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I've kept quite for awhile about the reversal in the models. The models have been picking up something next week (which still to far out) but I think the models are having a difficult time figuring out what exactly is going to happen. I've seen this to many times. They show it then they take it away then show it again. As you can see, the 12Z Euro is starting to show it again. I think we need to wait until this weekend to actually know what will happen. It's a waiting game from here on.

I also notice the models sometimes rush the pattern change and it ends up being a week later than originally projected…I think the end of November is still in play! 

[Meatyorologist]

29 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s headed south and Alaska ridge is shifting west and strengthening.

Delayed, not denied?

[Phishy Wx]

the pivot and the push back (to later)?

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I've kept quite for awhile about the reversal in the models. The models have been picking up something next week (which still to far out) but I think the models are having a difficult time figuring out what exactly is going to happen. I've seen this to many times. They show it then they take it away then show it again. As you can see, the 12Z Euro is starting to show it again. I think we need to wait until this weekend to actually know what will happen. It's a waiting game from here on.

 wait to Saturday. then do your excitement dance (or cliff dive)

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

this is why a said two days ago, wait to Saturday. then do your excitement dance (or cliff dive)

We had the same pull back in Feb '19 and in Dec '21, where we lose everything for 48-72 hours, and then features start to emerge again. If I recall correctly, it would always have to do with an upstream low not being resolved out.

I'm still leaning to "glancing blow before we split flow" but Tonga and Climate Change have shuffled the deck a bit.

[Cold Snap]

Low of 29 here this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, iFred said:

We had the same pull back in Feb '19 and in Dec '21, where we lose everything for 48-72 hours, and then features start to emerge again. If I recall correctly, it would always have to do with an upstream low not being resolved out.

I'm still leaning to "glancing blow before we split flow" but Tonga and Climate Change have shuffled the deck a bit.

Probably a good bet, at least in regards to the "glancing blow." As a cold weather junkie, just establishing some low level cold would be a tremendous blessing. 

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, Timmy said:

@Phil @Deweydog

regarding low back and sciatica. The start of Covid I had herniated a disc in my low back, horrible site pain as well as shooting pain down my leg.  The best things I learned in the process. PT was most helpful, it was slow going but they used KT tape to improve my posture to take pressure off my low back which gave me enough to begin some strengthening excerises.  (Took about 18 months to get to that point, a couple steroid injections too, I rented a low back traction device as well, that helped a ton!). Once I was not in terrible pain rehab began and it’s all about strengthening your transverse abdominus, find hip adduction machine at a local gym, it’s a game changer high reps (15-20) low weight. Glute bridges and clam shells can be done at home. Good luck!

Good advice. I never went the PT route but part of it was probably out of stubbornness. My issues stemmed from a hip flexor injury about 10 years ago which jacked up my posture for quite a while and started a chain reaction. As for exercises, I’ve never been a gym rat but planks and 90/90 stretches help me immensely. That and drinking a sh*t ton of water.

[RentonHill]

[LowerGarfield]

37 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

These are the PNW seasons.

November = early winter

December = winter

January = early spring

February = late winter

March = who the F knows and Graupel season

April = Spring

May = still Spring

June = blazing hot early fire season or late Spring

July = Summer

August = Smoke season, leave and go visit fam on the east coast

September = still smoke season

October = Leaves

With an exception for April 2022.

[Omegaraptor]

42 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

These are the PNW seasons.

November = early winter

December = winter

January = early spring

February = late winter

March = who the F knows and Graupel season

April = Spring

May = still Spring

June = blazing hot early fire season or late Spring

July = Summer

August = Smoke season, leave and go visit fam on the east coast

September = still smoke season

October = Leaves

1/10 Novembers: epic winter month

9/10 Novembers: useless deadweight limbo month