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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Just so I'm clear, those maps are from the run start to the end (or date listed, right)? 

If it says “total snow” then yes

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

Posted Images

LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s been a fun 0z

heath ledger joker GIF

IMG_8218.png

IMG_8219.png

IMG_8220.png

Way too far out to speculate but if this happens, I'd hope my brother/sister in-law stay home in Camas rather than drive or friend of ours flying to Spokane and driving ( they are from FL) for mother-in-law's celebration of life when they all travel the day after the run ends. But until then I want snow!

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

image.thumb.png.b4073e89ab9f6b69572f29b781a3fe7c.png

Incredible!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

If that run were to verify I might need to find an excuse to fly in and visit the office in Bellevue before it hits.

I would get stuck there for a while but hell, I gotta experience something like that in person. For old times sake. 

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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Might as well shoot for the 50 burger at this point. 

gfs-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-5622400.png

Over 60” here.  Pretty good.  I actually think I’ve seen a snowier GFS run before but this is right up there. 

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AlTahoe Veteran

AlTahoe

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Can we talk about the pepto in SACRAMENTO??

gfs-deterministic-california-total_snow_kuchera-5622400.png

The 157" for my house is fun. I think the Gfs spit out 301" for a 15 day period last year on one of the runs that I saved. Highest I had ever seen on a run. We ended up with 91" for that 15 day period. 

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Can we talk about the pepto in SACRAMENTO??

gfs-deterministic-california-total_snow_kuchera-5622400.png

What we saw in Feb(?) Was pretty much the limit of plausible snow in extreme events for CA. This map won't verify there. But in an extreme event you can see snow in places like Red Bluff / Cottonwood or Auburnm, CA and down to sea level in Eureka (I only know of that event and maybe one other). I mean you had accumulating snow in Oakland, my home town at about 2k ft. Insane.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

If that run were to verify I might need to find an excuse to fly in and visit the office in Bellevue before it hits.

I would get stuck there for a while but hell, I gotta experience something like that in person. For old times sake. 

1916?

A forum for the end of the world.

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SpaceRace22 Mentor

SpaceRace22

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What we saw in Feb(?) Was pretty much the limit of plausible snow in extreme events for CA. This map won't verify there. But in an extreme event you can see snow in places like Red Bluff / Cottonwood or Auburnm, CA and down to sea level in Eureka (I only know of that event and maybe one other). I mean you had accumulating snow in Oakland, my home town at about 2k ft. Insane.

You realize Los Angeles has had measurable snow before, right?

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The Seattle area only ends up with a quarter inch of ZR after that.  Perfect run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

This works!

1704240000-46vX8Rzrl1s.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

These are the two prettiest maps tonight. Hopefully dom daddy Euro will follow suit.

gem_z500a_namer_31.png

gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

Majestic!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

850s bottom out at -7 on the GEFS tonight for the mean.  Very solid.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Blizzard777 Grand Master

Blizzard777

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Was the website down? I had a difficult time refreshing it.

I had to finally close the tabs and then I was allowed back in.  I thought Fred was giving everyone a break from the models.  I enjoyed a round of Oculus golf 😊

.38 of precipitation so far today

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Phil said:

Dr. No is running..

If the ECMWF looks like the other models....Oh boy!

Do you think the current MJO wave could be playing into this?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

how's the GEFS?

Very good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What we saw in Feb(?) Was pretty much the limit of plausible snow in extreme events for CA. This map won't verify there. But in an extreme event you can see snow in places like Red Bluff / Cottonwood or Auburnm, CA and down to sea level in Eureka (I only know of that event and maybe one other). I mean you had accumulating snow in Oakland, my home town at about 2k ft. Insane.

Sea level snow did happen in the Bay Area as recently as February 5, 1976. Less likely now of course with climate change but still probably just a matter of time before it happens again.

Snow 1976

 

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