January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Wolf Reid did a good write up back in the day about the 12/90 north wind event…

https://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/

Ha…

[Cold Snap]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting to see the models trying to extend the cold out a bit now, or even have a reload a bit down the road.

Yeah the 12z Euro looked like it wanted to reload at the end.

[jakerepp]

Close to 200 guests viewing right now. Pretty wild. How's everyone feeling?

[SeanNyberg]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sean, my Mom just told me she read your facebook post about the incoming cold spell! She thinks your profile is very funny; she found your story about Rob recommending his phone's weather app particularly amusing

I’ve been doing those Facebook weather updates for like 15 years. That’s amazing!!! It’s really a lot of humor mixed in with “no one really knows” hedging. Lol

 

tell your Mom Hi!

I’ve been told a few major school districts (won’t say which) have used my posts as a guide for closing, along with Starbucks corporate offices. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This really caught my eye on the 12z ECMWF.  I can't recall seeing heights that low here.  I have speculated that late Jan 1893 could have been around 498 though.  A lot of various runs have shown a PV lobe swinging through WA.  I would love to see it.

1989 verified at around 507dm at basically the same location. I do remember one or two GFS runs that showed sub-500dm stuff getting into eastern WA. I won’t mention when that was.  

[NorCal55]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This really caught my eye on the 12z ECMWF.  I can't recall seeing heights that low here.  I have speculated that late Jan 1893 could have been around 498 though.  A lot of various runs have shown a PV lobe swinging through WA.  I would love to see it.

Why can’t these ever just slide down to Northern CA and sit and spin for a few days? Is the pacific jet stronger? Lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Might even see a little something IMBY on Monday morning. Several model runs have hinted at this.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Close to 200 guests viewing right now. Pretty wild. How's everyone feeling?

Cautiously optimistic. I do expect to see at least some snow IMBY next week. Maybe a little, maybe more. Maybe fleeting slush, maybe powder that lasts a few days.

[RentonHill]

 

25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The incredible thing about 1990, at least in the south sound, was the north wind. It accelerated over the open water areas and hammered north facing shorelines. The road along Redondo in Federal Way was washed out by wave action. 
 

https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/December1990.html

@snow_wizard isn’t the reason that Denny and the others moved from Alki across the bay because they got blasted with an Arctic north wind and were like efff that. Got any research about a cold winter 1851/1852??

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Close to 200 guests viewing right now. Pretty wild. How's everyone feeling?

Ready to have my heart shredded to pieces again 

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, Requiem said:

To my knowledge the strongest period of gorge winds in recent history for the metro area was sometime in late January to early February 1996. Curious about that setup, actually, which I've never really looked into.

Pretty traditional setup with just a steroidal cold pool as the low level air mass got capped. January 1996 was an impressive event, but it was a bit of a clip job as it transitioned pretty quickly to a low level affair which only enhanced the gorge aspect as the basin was brutally cold. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

34 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

This is the biggest run to run change I can remember seeing for surface temps. 18z is like "shut up 12z, no one asked you!"

What about Oregon? 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

1989 verified at around 507dm at basically the same location. I do remember one or two GFS runs that showed sub-500dm stuff getting into eastern WA. I won’t mention when that was.  

Why was the 1989 event so dry... seems like such a deep low would have to spin in a bunch of moisture on its way south through western WA.   Did the cold/dry air overwhelm the moisture?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

 

@snow_wizard isn’t the reason that Denny and the others moved from Alki across the bay because they got blasted with an Arctic north wind and were like efff that. Got any research about a cold winter 1851/1852??

Wind in general. It’s very exposed.

The settlers were like “This is great! No trees to clear for our town site!” Then they discovered why trees didn’t grow there.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cautiously optimistic. I do expect to see at least some snow IMBY next week. Maybe a little, maybe more. Maybe fleeting slush, maybe powder that lasts a few days.

If that Arctic front drops and we get outflow going I’ll score over 2’

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Why was the 1989 event so dry... seems like such a deep low would have to spin in a bunch of moisture on its way south through western WA.   Did the cold/dry air overwhelm the moisture?

It did here. The metro area was pretty much snow free as the depth and momentum of the CAA was off the hook. At the coast we had several inches between the insanely cold onshore flow stuff(12/21’s daddy) and the Arctic front itself. Salem got absolutely nuked.  

[T-Town]

14 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Close to 200 guests viewing right now. Pretty wild. How's everyone feeling?

It sounds like at worst we’ll see some chances for flakes in the air in the lowlands and some pass closing snows in the mountains. Compared to the boring drizzle of the last few weeks, that sounds great to me. 

[SeanNyberg]

An insider friend of mine called and said he got tipped off about the 00z ICON run and apparently the Icon is fine.

Who would've guessed...

[SeanNyberg]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

What about Oregon? 

Same

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hot off the presses. Arctic Blast update from Rod Hill.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I still haven’t said anything to my family.

[MV_snow]

42 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I got married IMBY June 20th 2021. The Sunday before the heat dome. So it ranks high for me.

Yeah good thing you didn’t plan it 6-8 days later. It got to 116 unofficially here on the 28th. Guessing it was a little cooler at least in PA.

[Deweydog]

Might be time for a conference call.

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Hot off the presses. Arctic Blast update from Rod Hill.

 

Using the GFS... 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Uh idk if anyone posted this earlier, but we might need to keep an eye on tommorow night

Temps are slightly realistic too... 850s a little warm though, but that could change easily in a day...

 

Gone on the 00z short range models ☹

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Might be time for a conference call.

Dome buster, where are you?

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Gone on the 00z high resolution models ☹

Ktvz just came in the tv and said Saturday we’d need to shovel some snow along the 97 corridor. Lol. One inch maybe?

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Using the GFS... 

Last nights 00z... 

[SpaceRace22]

While we wait for the 00z runs, just wanted to share this frame from the 12z Spire. Looks like it's flirting with single digits for everyone from YVR to EUG. So yeah, it's on board.

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Why was the 1989 event so dry... seems like such a deep low would have to spin in a bunch of moisture on its way south through western WA.   Did the cold/dry air overwhelm the moisture?

There was a ton of snow in western WA.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ktvz just came in the tv and said Saturday we’d need to shovel some snow along the 97 corridor. Lol. One inch maybe?

I'd say it's maybe looking like .5-2" in bend and Redmond, it could overpreform though. Here in Sunriver I might wake up to a few inches on Saturday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

48 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah the 12z Euro looked like it wanted to reload at the end.

Almost all of our great cold spells have a few day thaw and then we go back into the freezer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I still haven’t said anything to my family.

I’m sorry but my wife and I have no secrets. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m sorry but my wife and I have no secrets. 

Same here. I told my wife jokingly on Christmas that there'd be widespread record all-time lows on the 17th, now it's looking theoretically possible, although very unlikely. The fact that it's still possible is funny to me. 

 

Keeping her updated about the models each and every run, I'm sure it's getting annoying...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

11 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

While we wait for the 00z runs, just wanted to share this frame from the 12z Spire. Looks like it's flirting with single digits for everyone from YVR to EUG. So yeah, it's on board.

RIP Montana 

[BLI snowman]

38 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It did here. The metro area was pretty much snow free as the depth and momentum of the CAA was off the hook. At the coast we had several inches between the insanely cold onshore flow stuff(12/21’s daddy) and the Arctic front itself. Salem got absolutely nuked.  

It actually snowed quite a bit on the west and south sides of the metro with that. 4-6" I think for most of Washington and Clackamas Counties as the gradient switch was more gradual.  Portland itself just had a bit of snow with the onshore flow portion and then pixie dust with the front. 

We managed about 2-3" in Clark County up a little further from the river so it wasn't a total loss for snow, but not quite enough to maximize the radiational cooling potential of that airmass since a lot of it sublimated or blew away by the time things finally decoupled on the 4th.

Edited January 5 by BLI snowman

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

25 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Yeah good thing you didn’t plan it 6-8 days later. It got to 116 unofficially here on the 28th. Guessing it was a little cooler at least in PA.

103/104/103 was the peak here. All the trout in my pond died. It was 97 in my house. Wedding would have been canceled.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There was a ton of snow in western WA.

Not in Whatcom County.  Wind gust of over 100 MPH.  Not much snow at all.

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

While we wait for the 00z runs, just wanted to share this frame from the 12z Spire. Looks like it's flirting with single digits for everyone from YVR to EUG. So yeah, it's on board.

I was reading up on their platform yesterday while the forum was down. Seems pretty legit. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

45 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

103/104/103 was the peak here. All the trout in my pond died. It was 97 in my house. Wedding would have been canceled.

Peaked at 112 here, then the following morning got all the way down to 49, so we had a 63 degree range in 24 hours