January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

FWIW- all four local Seattle and Portland network affiliates have been on the forums in the past 6 hours. Someone at KOMO has multiple tabs open.

Are they lurkers?

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Next Friday night.  Amazing that the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS have all had an epic cold run within the last couple of runs.

GEM has actually been the warmest of the 3 (not this run, that's obviously warmer) but it hasn't gone as extreme cold as the euro or gfs (at least on this side)  not sure if that that's good, bad or indifferent but just an observation

[Doinko]

Little slider brings some snow to the valley. Temps are in the teens and single digits

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Everyone lets relax. I know there like a million posts and pages, but the Euro did this last night. It corrected itself the next run 

It’s very normal to see the windshield wiper effect around a week out. GFS is onboard. Confidence is growing now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wtf is that line of cold air on the gem, the rockies do a lot but not THAT much

I spy a 60 burger!

[snow_wizard]

Gorgeous run.  Just keeps going.

[Kolk1604]

GFS much colder than the 18z 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Little slider brings some snow to the valley. Temps are in the teens and single digits

 

LFG! THATS WHEN IM IN THE VALLEY!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s actually true. If the GEM is on its own I really don’t care, I’ve seen it throw around some wild stuff in the 7-10 day range. 

Yup.  We need to just chill out until the ECMWF runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Little slider brings some snow to the valley. Temps are in the teens and single digits

 

Cute . 

[Ken in Wood Village]

6 minutes ago, Timmy said:

This is gfs-level waffling

That's not the GFS?

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

GEM has actually been the warmest of the 3 (not this run, that's obviously warmer) but it hasn't gone as extreme cold as the euro or gfs (at least on this side)  not sure if that that's good, bad or indifferent but just an observation

Not sure what gem you were looking at. Here was the 12z

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I love how people are ignoring the GFS in favor of a bad GEM run. 

Why not?  We ignored the 12z GFS when the 12Z GEM was so good.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

GFS much colder than the 18z 

And there is widespread snow going into it.  January cold waves are the absolute best in our region compared to other months.  We have just forgotten.

[Timmy]

Just now, Ken in Wood Village said:

That's not the GFS?

Right, it’s the gem acting like the gfs and waffling 

[Doinko]

 

[AbbyJr]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The good news is no other model has showed this on any run.

Good chance it's a warm outlier but I'll start to get nervous if the Euro follows suit tonight. The 00Z GFS was much improved. Looked similar to the 12Z Euro today. The model ride continues.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Why not?  We ignored the 12z GFS when the 12Z GEM was so good.

I think the screaming message is all 3 models have had a really good run today.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Good chance it's a warm outlier but I'll start to get nervous if the Euro follows suit tonight. The 00Z GFS was much improved. Looked similar to the 12Z Euro today. The model ride continues.

I think the chances are at least 80% the ECMWF won't follow the GEM.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

GEM looks good! 50-burgers for everyone!

[SnowySeeker50]

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wtf is that line of cold air on the gem, the rockies do a lot but not THAT much

Lol, almost seems broken. Stays like that for the last 40 hours of the run

[snow_wizard]

And more cold.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Nice slider! They tend to overpreform in the WV, so it could be even more snow if the run verifies!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  We need to just chill out until the ECMWF runs.

And even if the ECMWF is significantly worse tonight it could come back tomorrow.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the screaming message is all 3 models have had a really good run today.

There has been mediocre runs lately, but none did what the GEM did.  This was totally out of left field.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wtf is that line of cold air on the gem, the rockies do a lot but not THAT much

Even a 60-burger for Pasco!

[Mercurial]

8 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Wtf is that line of cold air on the gem, the rockies do a lot but not THAT much

lol... super unrealistic look for here at least.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Nice high temp

[snow_wizard]

Seeing some near -40 stuff in NE WA.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Even a 60-burger for Pasco!

Sun angles are making a difference

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like how the GEM gives me almost 20” of rain in the next 10 days.

[GHweatherChris]

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Not sure what gem you were looking at. Here was the 12z

I have not seen a GEM run approach -30 at KGEG.  Euro and GFS both have in the last 2 days unless I missed something.  I haven't watched every single run.  it's just an observation.  localized, yes

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

THIS RUN IS A TOUUUUUUUUUUUCCCHHHHHDOWWNNN!

 

[Mercurial]

Heavy rain in the high Bitterroots in January?  Lol GEM get bent

[Snownerd3000]

We're about to be slammed by that system to the west 

[Doinko]

Overrunning snow

 

[AbbyJr]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the chances are at least 80% the ECMWF won't follow the GEM.

Especially since the 18Z Euro control looked better at 144 hours than the 00Z GEM at the same timeframe. It's really a game of inches here where the slightest adjustments to the GOA block and polar lows can be the difference between extreme cold and a milder outcome. Time will tell but I'm not yet buying the GEM solution at all.

[snow_wizard]

I'm betting this will work out well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the seed @TT-SEA planted on this GFS run. Don’t think I didn’t notice.