January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SpaceRace22]

While obviously -30F in Portland is sure as never going to happen, it's worth reminding everyone that the 12z Euro showed us flirting with 0F, and the 00z Spire showed widespread below 0 temps for the whole region. Obviously the 6z is never going to happen in a thousand years, BUT there is some support still for some really shockingly cold scenarios here. I wouldn't completely discount the possibility of SEA or PDX flirting with 0 degrees or below.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Can you show me just the Day 7 totals? Please.

Next week's total snow. Most of this falls right here at the end of this 6-7 days.

[CasuallyFoxy]

Imagine working for the NWS, waking up in the morning and seeing this.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

While I fully agree with you that obviously something just straight borked in the GFS here and this run is clearly a straight up calculation error... this is also exactly what people were saying in June 2021 when the models started showing 120 degrees in Portland. Without a doubt this run will be the most extreme solution we see on this event and things will come back to reality in the 12z runs, but *if* they somehow don't... it might not be wise to 100% discount it as a complete impossibility.

If there’s ever a run worthy of framing, this would be it. Just straight insanity. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Next week's total snow. Most of this falls right here at the end of this 6-7 days.

Awesome thanks! Unlike just about every other time we see these snow maps the surface temps and 850mb temps will all be cold enough to support snow!

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah if anything even remotely close to that solution continues to show up, I am unironically going to purchase extra survival blankets and stuff on Amazon this weekend before there's a rush on anything. If/when the power goes out, we would be in serious trouble.

Get extra toilet paper too. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

Imagine working for the NWS, waking up in the morning and seeing this.

I don't envy any pro met over this next stretch. Buckle up...

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS also has gusty east winds from Day 7.5 + for PDX pulling in bitterly cold air.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, Requiem said:

At face value that run features conditions that would collapse roofs, kill anyone unfortunate enough to be exposed for any significant length of time, destroy infrastructure and devastate crops, and create a nightmare flooding scenario for whenever it does decide to melt. You're on the money about apocalyptic

Poor kiddos, the ones that survive anyways, are going to be going to school all summer to make up for all these snow days. 

[Cloud]

35 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

LoL

Quite obvious the Rockies, the Cascades and whatever else in between no longer exist. Just blend everything in.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I just woke up and I feel like I'm still sleeping because I think I'm having a nightmare I can't believe what I'm seeing on the models. If anything, something major is going to happen, what...I don't know but I'm guessing some cold temperatures and snow, how much is still undetermined. I think we will know more by Monday if not by Wednesday. 

I just looked at the PNA, looks like this upcoming cold weather will last for awhile. 

There's a movie (which I can't remember what movie it is) that says, "it's time to buckle up" lol. Looks like we could be in for an extended period of cold weather 🌨

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS Day 11.5 uhhhh that looks quite similar to the Op..... With the arctic air stuck over us, east winds keeping PDX in the deep freezer and undercutting jet...

[RayRay]

[ShawniganLake]

31 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Save this loop! 6z GEFS full run 500mb height anomaly

Looks like the block is trying to reset at day 16.  Crazy. 

[RayRay]

Over 100 people online at 4am… crazy.

[SpaceRace22]

06z GEFS Ensemble *mean* down to 9F at Troutdale. 13F in Seattle. lmao 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

48 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Save this loop! 6z GEFS full run 500mb height anomaly

Looks very similar to the operational 

[SpaceRace22]

What ChatGPT says downtown PDX will look like in a little over a week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow GEFS Day 14 and PDX still hasn't moderated with more snow falling.

It sure is fun seeing these crazy model runs and with the GEFS trending colder you start to wonder if this is possible. I need to see 6 more solid/cold runs with timing moving ahead perhaps by Sunday 00z, or Monday 12z. Then I would become quite confident. A long ways to go. Cautiously optimistic.

12z GFS in 3 hours 18 minutes
12z ECMWF in 5 hours 28 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looks very similar to the operational 

Oops typo. I'm so freaking tired. That was the 6z Op. lol

[Requiem]

If I were to add my amateur opinion to the pile-- I feel as though we could see something like early 2004. We'll see though.

[SpaceRace22]

Ensemble mean approaching 20" for PDX and 12" for SEA before the end of the run. Without a doubt the snowiest ensembles yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Ensemble mean approaching 20" for PDX and 12" for SEA before the end of the run. Without a doubt the snowiest ensembles yet.

Snow maps that aren't outlandish for once with temps more than cold enough. Wow

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Oops typo. I'm so freaking tired. That was the 6z Op. lol

No wonder, LOL.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

No wonder, LOL.

To be fair, the GEFS honestly has a very similar pattern progression.

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright can't believe I'm still awake, but can't keep going. Cya later today

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wow, I had to sleep early last night so couldn’t stay up for the EURO. I just saw the 00z EURO and 06z GFS and I’m speechless ! The EURO has the Arctic Front down to Puget Sound by Thursday afternoon. The GFS has great overwater trajectory with the Arctic Front that will allow for lots of moisture. Thursday into Friday is going to be fun watching the Arctic Front blast on South!

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Wow, I had to sleep early last night so couldn’t stay up for the EURO. I just saw the 00z EURO and 06z GFS and I’m speechless . The EURO has the Arctic Front down to Puget Sound by Thursday afternoon. The GFS has great overwater trajectory with the Arctic Front that will allow for lots of moisture. Thursday into Friday is going to be fun watching the Arctic Front blast on South!

You really should look at the full 384 hour run snowfall maps and the 24 hour minimum 2m temp at hour 384 on the 06z GFS. I can tell you haven't seen that part yet by this post. 

[SpaceRace22]

06z GEFS ensembles. What the hell is this snow signal that it's seeing for PDX? Good lord. Worth noting that the ensembles are all 10:1 ratios, too. The kuchera ratio amps up these totals big time with how cold our temps will be.

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

06z GEFS ensembles. What the hell is this snow signal that it's seeing for PDX? Good lord. Worth noting that the ensembles are all 10:1 ratios, too. The kuchera ratio amps up these totals big time with how cold our temps will be.

That Control though for seattle... almost 4 feet?

What is going on? 

[catnip]

[catnip]

[catnip]

6z EPS

 

 

[T-Town]

Seattle NWS is starting to believe. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=AFD&issuedby=SEW

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, RayRay said:

Over 100 people online at 4am… crazy.

Woke up at 4 and laid in bed trying to go back to sleep but finally couldn’t resist any longer and grabbed my phone and went to the kitchen to check the forum. Good lord we are going to be zombies by the end of this thing…I will probably be a zombie by the end of this weekend lol! 

[RCola]

Wow, 6z EPS is looking good at the end of its range. Healthy ridge, clean transition to a ridge bridge. No southeast ridge, but who cares? This is chef's kiss. 

[TT-SEA]

-14 in Seattle.   Yep.   Makes sense.

[SpaceRace22]

I can't wait to see people's reactions this morning as they wake up and see that the 6z GFS spit out 4-5 ft of snow and -20 to -30F 2m temps for the entire Willamette Valley

[TT-SEA]

The GFS runs make me think of a Tonga fueled 'Day After Tomorrow' scenario for the PNW.   

[RCola]

Anyone have the 6z Euro operational yet? Does hr 144 match the EPS?