January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

More interesting notes... the 500mb pattern on 12Z ECMWF by day 10 looks very similar to its 00Z run at the same time.

But the arctic air was much farther east on the 00Z run.   And yet that even that didn't matter because even the 00Z run showed snow and temps in the 20s at the end.   

In other words... its coming.  

Thank you GOD!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Did we have massive runs like we've had with this one?

Yes that was gonna be a big one also…

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Don’t love the delay on the Euro. It might not mean anything, but I’ve seen delays then into delays turn into delays turn into bust.

True, but they all arrive late for the most part.. 

[TT-SEA]

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More interesting notes... the 500mb pattern on 12Z ECMWF by day 10 looks very similar to its 00Z run at the same time.

But the arctic air was much farther east on the 00Z run.   And yet that even that didn't matter because the 00Z run showed snow and temps in the 20s at the end.   

In other words... its coming.  

Let's get that Arctic air through western WA within 120 hours. Getting close.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I didn't follow the June heatwave,  how was it handled in the models? Just a summary. 

[BLI snowman]

GEM and Euro agree on a lot, right down to the clipper dropping down on Sunday.

18z GFS is going to be dramatically different from the last few runs.

[AbbyJr]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fraser outflow is ripping by Friday. Single digit temps and windchills below -10F in Whatcom county

Is it just me or are we still walking on a very thin line with a skinny GOA block on both the Euro and the GEM? Both still work out for us but it looks like an incredibly fragile setup and to be honest, a strange evolution. Thoughts?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I agree it sucks. However, we just did have a rug pull in 2020 not too long ago. 

Pretty much all other have worked out in recent years though.  People forget the models have improved since 2005 for instance.

We still get these nasty bad runs though.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

20 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

This is really great communication for the information we have right now. The only thing I think the general public would be confused by is the top line of the graph because it's not intuitive. Most people will read it as a 90% chance that that's the high of the day rather than a 90% chance it gets that cold. Communicating probabilities to the population is really, really hard. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Is it just me or are we still walking on a very thin line with a skinny GOA block on both the Euro and the GEM? Both still work out for us but it looks like an incredibly fragile setup and to be honest, a strange evolution. Thoughts?

Not as fragile as it seems.  Kona low is there and that's a huge deal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

GEM and Euro agree on a lot, right down to the clipper dropping down on Sunday.

18z GFS is going to be dramatically different from the last few runs.

I wouldn't be surprised if that strong low mid week fizzles out or even vanishes like runs of a couple days ago.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

Power is back on! Temp down to 37!

.38” so far on the day. 

Have you considered investing in a generator?

3 hours ago, Mercurial said:

On a happier note!

I’m missing a snowstorm by 50 miles right now. Gut punch.

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't trust its tendency to go crazy with the blocking. 

The difference between the GFS and GEM a week out is about as big as it can get at that range.  

 

Why does the GFS only score coups when it’s pulling the rug? It’s always wrong when it’s showing something interesting.  

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

So many people are experiencing what I did last season…I would just finish up with one and the next illness would take its place. My order of festivities was RSV, followed by COVID, followed by the Flu. I was non stop sick from the beginning of November to just before Christmas 2022. It was truly horrible. 

My symptoms are gone but I’m testing as positive as ever. I’m done with this stupid virus.

2 hours ago, Andstorm said:

I think Phil said operational are worthless outside 7 days. He’s clearly an expert but I thought it was more like 3 days at most. 

I’m not an expert, but yeah in sensitive/threshold situations, ensembles will tell you much more.

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The tie in to the NAO block is everything on this.

Not “everything”, but it’s important.

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There isn't even much NAO blocking in North America when this gets set into motion. It's a pretty weird pattern progression, tough to find any matching analogs.

The wavebreak associated w/ -NAO is actually significant on that map, it just hasn’t showed up in 500mb anomalies yet.

[Kolk1604]

Oh oh 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I didn't follow the June heatwave,  how was it handled in the models? Just a summary. 

They did well.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could you post the GEM and EURO for PDX? Thanks!

[MWG]

All I know is I can't do this for another week . I'm just glad I saw snow fall even though it didn't stick.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Oh oh 

Graph Cast.

[MikeInEverett]

IIRC in Jan 2020 the GFS was mostly the only modem that was ever fully on board, I remember we kept waiting for the Euro to jump on board but it never really did. The temperatures the GFS was spitting out within 144 hours was pretty nuts.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I didn't follow the June heatwave,  how was it handled in the models? Just a summary. 

GFS was right on it if I remember. No one believed it.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I didn't follow the June heatwave,  how was it handled in the models? Just a summary. 

I think the Canadian lagged, but it was handled pretty well from about 6-7 days out. Of course no one really believed the numbers it was spitting out until we were 48 hours out or so. Absurd.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They did well.

Was there a big pull back at all?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

IIRC in Jan 2020 the GFS was mostly the only modem that was ever fully on board, I remember we kept waiting for the Euro to jump on board but it never really did. The temperatures the GFS was spitting out within 144 hours was pretty nuts.

This is definitely a different situation…little more confidence in this one than that model ride. 

[SeanNyberg]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Oh oh 

It’s fine. Calm down. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS and control run following the operational for first 7 days like it always does.   

[BLI snowman]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

IIRC in Jan 2020 the GFS was mostly the only modem that was ever fully on board, I remember we kept waiting for the Euro to jump on board but it never really did. The temperatures the GFS was spitting out within 144 hours was pretty nuts.

Yeah, this would be a way bigger whiff from the Euro if this thing fizzles. It never looked remotely this good in 2020, let alone for 5-6 consecutive runs and coupled with the EPS support.

[LowerGarfield]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow going into the cold needs some work, but this is far from decided yet.

Oh I like this!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Could you post the GEM and EURO for PDX? Thanks!

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

IIRC in Jan 2020 the GFS was mostly the only modem that was ever fully on board, I remember we kept waiting for the Euro to jump on board but it never really did. The temperatures the GFS was spitting out within 144 hours was pretty nuts.

Euro briefly caught on which for about a day/day and a half had it feeling like the momentum was in our favor. Just enough of a weak, slop over block to magically drive the PV southwest.

[T-Town]

Nice to see snow on the Olympics. 

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This is definitely a different situation…little more confidence in this one than that model ride. 

Yeah I know. I just saw people making comparisons. This is a very different situation.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... those charts for PDX show that the ECMWF really does follow the GEM!

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Was there a big pull back at all?

The models don't struggle with pattern during the warm season like it does in the cold season, not even close.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I guess what I'm wondering is say in the last 15 years have we had a situation where at 1 week out every model was showing a big arctic event and have it all taken away and not happen at all?

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Wow, those look extremely similar. Both look great

[lowlandsnow]

Nice improvement

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, this would be a way bigger whiff from the Euro if this thing fizzles. It never looked remotely this good in 2020, let alone for 5-6 consecutive runs and coupled with the EPS support.

The way the GFS just mows down the GOA blocking looks suspicious to me. Good chance the Euro/CMC trend more progressive, but I’ll wager the GFS is overdoing it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Graph Cast is rock steady.  It hasn't blinked once.  -18 850s for Seattle.

I just saw the 12z GraphCast. You weren’t kidding, it’s not backing down at all! Go Google!

 

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

The models don't struggle with pattern during the warm season like it does in the cold season, not even close.

I think shorter wavelengths help. Harder for one little kink in the snake to f*ck things up so magnificently down the line.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

This is like the war of 1812.... UK/Canada vs USA. Hopefully the same people win again!