January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Requiem]

Fwiw, the low the GEM shunts into Northern CA next weekend also exists on the 12z EURO

[SpaceRace22]

This is pretty wild. The GEM gets -30C 850s into interior NE California, and -9C all the way into the Bay Area. Eureka is at -13C at one point.

 

[Phil]

Interestingly the NPAC block is weaker on the 00z GEPS because it bridges with the -NAO, but the result is the trough ends up farther west in Canada.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

August 29, 1997 at 2:14 a.m.

That's your birthday?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Out to 132hrs GEPS is slightly better with the block and more negative tilt to the trough but operational run is still a major outlier.

Nice little improvement for sure.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This is pretty wild. The GEM gets -30C 850s into interior NE California, and -9C all the way into the Bay Area. Eureka is at -13C at one point.

 

when I lived in Santa Cruz we had a cold outbreak in dec 2013 and I think we saw similar in the bay area

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

When does that AI overlord model come out? 

I have no idea but I was able to sneak a pic of “IT” !  
 

[RentonHill]

Outlier is misleading, imo. It’s just part of the cold cluster @Phil

[High Desert Mat?]

What time does the euro start tonight exactly? 10:30?

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ah yes, classic Phil, a twinge of encouragement but still gets that unneeded shot of reality in there........

 

Sorry about that. The GEPS mean is light years better than the OP GooFuS, but the OP CMC is definitely on shrooms too. Huge outlier.

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

What time does the euro start tonight exactly? 10:30?

About 10.

[snow_wizard]

One nice thing is the GEFS keeps us high and dry with offshore flow after the Arctic air gets cut off.  That means it stays cold.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Blizzard777 said:

I have no idea but I was able to sneak a pic of “IT” !  
 

Spire is not AI, lol. It just has a bunch of extra satellite data for its input that the other models don't have, but it still calculates things like the traditional models do. GraphCast (and a few others) are the AI models.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Outlier is misleading, imo. It’s just part of the cold cluster @Phil

Plus he was saying that when it was only out to hour 132 lol...

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Outlier is misleading, imo. It’s just part of the cold cluster @Phil

Surprised to see that many really cold ones.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Outlier is misleading, imo. It’s just part of the cold cluster @Phil

It’s colder than every ensemble member D5-10. Let’s just call a spade a spade.

[Requiem]

The witching hour starts at 10 folks, prepare accordingly 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This is pretty wild. The GEM gets -30C 850s into interior NE California, and -9C all the way into the Bay Area. Eureka is at -13C at one point.

 

-8 over San Francisco. How much snow is it calling for SF to get?

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS puts the center of the troughing over the Midwest and NE part of the country next weekend.   Completely opposite of GEM.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The truth will set you free. The GEPS mean is light years better than the OP GooFuS, but the OP CMC is definitely on shrooms too. Huge outlier.

That is just so obnoxious.  Almost like a flashing neon sign.

[Phil]

Just now, Requiem said:

The witching hour starts at 10 folks, prepare accordingly 

9:45 PST, actually.

Most important Euro run of the winter, probably.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

9:45 PST, actually.

Most important Euro run of the winter, probably.

What about tomorrow?

[Chewbacca Defense]

Down to 33 IMBY.  No moisture but everything is still really wet from the rain earlier, so depending on how this plays out, could get pretty icy overnight here in parts of Whatcom County.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

-8 over San Francisco. How much snow is it calling for SF to get?

Nothing since by that point the northern jet is hanging out in Tijuana. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s colder than every ensemble member D5-10. Let’s just call a spade a spade.

Are you ok dude

 

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Spire is not AI, lol. It just has a bunch of extra satellite data for its input that the other models don't have, but it still calculates things like the traditional models do. GraphCast (and a few others) are the AI models.

Thanks for the info!  Just started paying attention today to these new tools being used

Fascinating stuff 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

9:45 PST, actually.

Most important Euro run of the winter, probably.

Every ECMWF run has been cold.   It will be cold and there will be lowland snow.    That is a given.   Are we just seeing if Seattle will record its coldest temp in history?  

[RentonHill]

There it is!!! It IS an outlier by day 10

[SouthHillFrosty]

I’ve never experienced single digits in my life. Hoping for a first!!

[MossMan]

I think Phil needs to take another flight! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

9:45 PST, actually.

Most important Euro run of the winter, probably.

We say that every night. If it stays cold till tommorows 00z, we'll say it again tommorow. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

There it is!!! It IS an outlier by day 10

Actually no it isn't, if we use a ruler straight across, still not the coldest..........

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Actually no it isn't, if we use a ruler straight across, still not the coldest..........

Nevermind, I am crosseyed tonight, super tired, starting a new career soon lol

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’ve never experienced single digits in my life. Hoping for a first!!

It’s amazing! The lowest I have been in would be -12 in Moses lake. I don’t remember the year but it was prior to 2013 when my mom still lived on the lake. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

There it is!!! It IS an outlier by day 10

It’s actually quite insulting. 

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Thanks for the info!  Just started paying attention today to these new tools being used

Fascinating stuff 

The Spire is actually super fascinating to me. They have 127 satellites taking GNSS-RO measurements of the atmosphere to generate significantly more input data than other agencies. Traditionally, GNSS-RO has required a very large satellite, which has made it cost prohibitive to get too many into orbit. However. Spire figured out how to miniaturize them so that they could spam out tons of them and get basically complete global coverage with their network. Their satellite fleet is the 7th largest of any nation or corporate entity in the world, and far more than any other meteorological organization has. Definitely going to be watching this model closely in the future. Better input data is the answer to more accurate forecasts for sure.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’ve never experienced single digits in my life. Hoping for a first!!

Single digits with wind be brutal!!! 
When I experienced 0* with winds calm in Leavenworth it was a none event though. Didn’t really feel horribly cold.  

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

There it is!!! It IS an outlier by day 10

That doesn’t contradict what I said. If you take each ensemble member and average it from D5-10, none are as cold as the operational run.

That doesn’t mean the operational run is coldest the whole time, but it’s the coldest over that timespan.

That make more sense?

[MossMan]

Currently 35 with light rain currently.

.39” on the day. 

[Sandy rocks]

It has been my experience that overrunning events generally only involve a lot of ice, so if you are saying this to be comforting, don't. I have live east of Portland for almost forty years and I hate ice. If I never, never see another ice storm, I would be very, very happy. Thanks,