January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would there be freezing spray at places like Cape Perpetua with this setup?

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You mean your waiting for the GFS to not be stupid? 

 

 

Didn’t know euro cold bias was a thing. It’s clearly 500mb that matters as well.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You mean your waiting for the GFS to not be stupid? 

 

 

euro has a cold bias?  How come I missed that somehow

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the night shift GFS caves it's gonna be one helluva party on here overnight!

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Didn’t know euro cold bias was a thing. It’s clearly 500mb that matters as well.

Me neither. It's usually the GFS you see with the crazy temps. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

I love how Cliff Maass says that "other media sites" are causing harm by trying to make predictions >5 days out.  And then in the same blog post, he has the cajónes to say this (his own bolded emphasis).

Quote

Several local outlets have gone for a major snow/cold event over the Washington lowlands this week (Wednesday through Friday), which is becoming increasingly doubtful.

WTF is he doing if not making a {looking more likely wrong} prediction by saying that.  And he has a microphone.  We're just a weird weather enthusiast forum.  How is his >5 day prediction any different than ours?

God he annoys me.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

EPS looks similarly improved

Not quite to the same extent, but did shift in the same direction.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Anyone see graohcast yet?  On the ECMWF site it says not available.

[snow_wizard]

The site with the Graph Cast has apparently crashed.  A lot of people getting excited.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You mean your waiting for the GFS to not be stupid? 

 

 

And once again he doesn't talk about the Canadian or icon. 

[Slushy Inch]

EPS moves towards pattern extension 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Don't wanna be a party pooper, but the GFS and UKMET still say no.  I'm not there yet.

It’s bad to bet against the Euro.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

euro has a cold bias?  How come I missed that somehow

Probably read one of Tim’s summer posts berating the Euro when it’s 1°F too cold at SEA (but ignoring when the GFS is 10°F too warm, of course). 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensemble is 4F colder for much of the run.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Didn’t know euro cold bias was a thing. It’s clearly 500mb that matters as well.

high five

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The site with the Graph Cast has apparently crashed.  A lot of people getting excited.

It's our fault.

Though with so many people across the country potentially affected by this, maybe it really is our fault.  

I was hoping Weatherbell had it 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I love how Cliff Maass says that "other media sites" are causing harm by trying to make predictions >5 days out.  And then in the same blog post, he has the cajónes to say this (his own bolded emphasis).

WTF is he doing if not making a {looking more likely wrong} prediction by saying that.  And he has a microphone.  We're just a weird weather enthusiast forum.  How is his >5 day prediction any different than ours?

God he annoys me.

that guy is soooo terrible

[SeanNyberg]

Just wanted to show how things have changed among the models since we were all sitting here last night.
These are surface temperatures for Seattle for next Saturday late morning (10am, 11am, 1pm ... the models have varying hours available). I will show the temp from the most current 00z, the temp from 24 hours earlier, the previous 00z, and show the difference. And let's see if we see a trend.

(I couldn't get both the current 00Z Icon and the 00z Icon from the day before, so for the Icon I compare the OOz to the previous 12z)

LOCATION: Seattle
PARAMETERS: Surface Temperatures in Farenheit
24 hr Change in forecasted Temperature for Saturday January 13th

1/7 00z Euro: 11°
1/6 00z Euro: 17°
One Day Difference: 6° Cooler

1/7 00z Euro Ens: 22°
1/6 00z Euro Ens: 29°
One Day Difference: 7° Cooler

1/7 00z Canadian: 15°
1/6 00z Canadian: 33°
One Day Difference: 18° Cooler

1/7 00z Canadian Ens: 22°
1/6 00z Canadian Ens: 26°
One Day Difference: 4° Cooler

1/7 00z GFS: 40°
1/6 00z GFS: 36°
One Day Difference: 4° Warmer

1/7 00z GEFS: 27°
1/6 00z GEFS: 32°
One Day Difference: 5° Cooler

1/7 00z ICON: 8°
1/6 12z ICON: 42°
One Day Difference: 34° Cooler

AVERAGING ROUGHLY: 10° Cooler in 24 hours

None of this means anything. LOL! Except to show that the trends today have been overwhelmingly positive.

[LowerGarfield]

29 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Who's driving the golf cart?

I usually think it looks like the old Twitter bird most of the time. Sometimes an angel or a stingray because I'm often just outside of it.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the night shift GFS caves it's gonna be one helluva party on here overnight!

Not sure I can make it that long. about to take 20mg Zaleplon and nod off, lest my insomnia consume me.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Probably read one of Tim’s summer posts berating the Euro when it’s 1°F too cold at SEA (but ignoring when the GFS is 10°F too warm, of course). 

Good Lord.   The ECMWF was consistently too cold by 3-5 degrees on sunny days in the warm season for years.   Just a fact.   But the last upgrade seemed to fix it and I did not really notice it as much last summer.   And this was entirely a warm season thing.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Beautiful.

Poor Friday Harbor.

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep, until the block retrogrades into NE-Siberia.

Then the NAO wanes and the pacific jet begins to extend again. But based on history there should be another multiweek period of heavy blocking (-NAO again) in February!

Any chance a brief -PNA block joins to help?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[fubario]

26 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

This is the beginning of the great Polar migration.  the North Pole will relocate to around Nelson, BC.  we will be in the dome.  the arctic as we know it will melt. the PNW will become uninhabitable within 10-15 years.  the new ice age starts next week.  I can't believe Tonga actually pulled it off

Eat my shorts.

 

-Al Gore

[Kolk1604]

Doesn't look like NWS Seattle is sold yet, probably waiting for the GFS to cave. All models (except GFS) suggest temps crash on Thursday and frigid until next week. Don't worry, UKMET will come back around 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Troughing over the Pac
NW, with onshore flow, will keep the air mass cool and wet with
additional snowfall in the Cascades on Wednesday. Total amounts
are not as heavy compared to the Monday-Tuesday system, though.
Tides will be high again and will continue to monitor for
possible high tides and minor tidal overflow.

The air mass cools further as we head toward the latter half of
the week with northerly flow aloft and brief offshore winds. The
focus then shifts to how cold we get and the potential for lowland
snow. There is still a lot of uncertainty in how cold we get
based on the ensemble spreads. However, even lows in the 20s (most
likely scenario) is much below normal and cool enough for snow. So
with cool temps and low snow levels there is a threat of seeing
some lowland snow Wed night through Friday although at this time
total amounts are not super impressive. There`s at least a 20-40%
chance of seeing 1" or greater, but seeing significant amounts of
4" or greater is less than 10%. Moving forward, a wetter system
approaches Friday night into Saturday and we do see the air mass
moderate a bit as the flow turns (or tries to turn) onshore. We
could see a scenario of snow turning over to rain and where/when
this changeover occurs is always tricky thus keeping a rain/snow
mix in the forecast. 33

[SnowySeeker50]

Looks like some warmer Euro members got eliminated. Been consistently 2-5f cooler since hour 132 now

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.   The ECMWF was consistently too cold by 3-5 degrees on sunny days in the warm season for years.   Just a fact.   But the last upgrade seemed to fix it and I did not really notice it as much last summer.   And this was entirely a warm season thing.   

The GFS warm 2m bias in summer is even more egregious though. Will never forget the day it showed 93°F at SeaTac and the result was 79°F. Only time I’ve seen it bust like that inside 12hrs was during CAD events out here (or MCS debris failing to clear in summer).

No excuse for that kind of bust in the PNW in the summer, though, when there’s basically nothing going on weather wise.

[Slushy Inch]

Wow the run to run looks like a cold pattern by itself.

[Cloud]

Look, I like Snyder but he is wrong. Since when does the Euro has a cold bias? If this was summertime, sure I’d agree with his assessment. The cold and wet usually belongs to the GFS in the wintertime. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

The GFS warm 2m bias in summer is even more egregious though. Will never forget the day it showed 93°F at SeaTac and the result was 79°F. Only time I’ve seen it bust like that inside 12hrs was during CAD events out here (or MCS debris failing to clear in summer).

Those kind of busts can happen near water more easily.   A slight error in wind direction.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I love how Cliff Maass says that "other media sites" are causing harm by trying to make predictions >5 days out.  And then in the same blog post, he has the cajónes to say this (his own bolded emphasis).

WTF is he doing if not making a {looking more likely wrong} prediction by saying that.  And he has a microphone.  We're just a weird weather enthusiast forum.  How is his >5 day prediction any different than ours?

God he annoys me.

He's just a idiot .

If he would stop sniffing glue maybe he could take a better look at the models. 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

Well that was a lovely Euro run to wake up to…Fell asleep on the couch for a bit. 
Go team Europe and Canada! 

[lowlandsnow]

We are only 120 hours out from when Seattle goes below freezing

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I love how Cliff Maass says that "other media sites" are causing harm by trying to make predictions >5 days out.  And then in the same blog post, he has the cajónes to say this (his own bolded emphasis).

WTF is he doing if not making a {looking more likely wrong} prediction by saying that.  And he has a microphone.  We're just a weird weather enthusiast forum.  How is his >5 day prediction any different than ours?

God he annoys me.

Save the fuckking receipts.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS like this and temps could be below freezing for like 4 days at least

[Doinko]

What does the daily high/low chart look like for PDX?

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Those kind of busts can happen near water more easily.   A slight error in wind direction.

It wasn’t the water. OLM and other stations were modeled similarly warm and all ended up around 80°F. I archived those GFS fails in a folder on my phone because they were so damn spectacular.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Doinko said:

What does the daily high/low chart look like for PDX?

Meteograms aren't out yet. EC ensemble is still rolling out.