January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Hot takes from the forum over the last 24 hours:
"ICON is WILD, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"EURO is WAY too cold, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"Canadian is INSANE, don't believe the extreme event it shows"
"GFS is DRUNK, don't believe the extreme snow it shows"

I know this is just y'all hedging after years of being disappointed and the trance that this forum can put people in, but the evidence is right in front of our face. This is going to be a big event, the question now is just how big and how long.

This is nothing. Not even close to witnessing complete meltdown from a rug pull. 

[MossMan]

Not to change the subject, but I am hearing rumors that there could be a big westerly surge down the strait on Tuesday, could someone post some wind speed maps? Those typically give me some lengthy power outages. 

Edited January 7 by MossMan

[iFred]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Jan 2020 vibes, minus the crippling lack of EPS support. 550dam AK ridge ain't gon send that lobe much past the border. But we'll still probably be soaked in its frigid blood 

Moderation is usually underdone here. Unless you live by the Gorge or near Hope, this “event” ain’t it.

After putzing around the Euro and GFS, I see that Gulf of Anadyr low is very simple looking, kind of adding to my idea that we are working without enough data.

I think it’d do some good for folks to to post some AI images or local snow scapes and do some meditation about waist high snow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Torch in the long range

[lowlandsnow]

GEFS is much better, it's coming

[MikeInEverett]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not to change the subject, but I am hearing rumors that there could be a big westerly surge down the straight on Tuesday, could someone post some wind speed maps? Those typically give me some lengthy power outages. 

The storm last year that had that was powerful! Very memorable wind event.

[Ken in Wood Village]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not to change the subject, but I am hearing rumors that there could be a big westerly surge down the straight on Tuesday, could someone post some wind speed maps? Those typically give me some lengthy power outages. 

Here is a close up on what you wanted. Looks like the winds could be really strong. 

[MossMan]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

The storm last year that had that was powerful! Very memorable wind event.

The one in November 2022? I was without power for nearly 4 days! 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Moderation is usually underdone here. Unless you live by the Gorge or near Hope, this “event” ain’t it.

After putzing around the Euro and GFS, I see that Gulf of Anadyr low is very simple looking, kind of adding to my idea that we are working without enough data.

I think it’d do some good for folks to to post some AI images or local snow scapes and do some meditation about waist high snow.

A more chaotic low in that position, rather than a simple blossoming LW trough, would probably transfer more of its forward momentum into its own vorticity and building the block up even more... But that's not the point of this post 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The one in November 2022? I was without power for nearly 4 days! 

That was the only event that cut power to my neighborhood, which also took out DT Everett for 36 hours.

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The one in November 2022? I was without power for nearly 4 days! 

Yup! Massive maple trees on my street took some serious damage, and Lowell Larimer road between Everett and Snohomish was closed for a few days due to downed power lines in multiple spots. 

[Kayla]

44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It happens here if there's a blizzard predicted.

Never happens in Bozeman! I do kind of miss the nostalgic of everyone hunkering down when a big snowstorm is forecasted.

[Sandy rocks]

You guys sure all have your biases about these models. It's terrible with all the technology available that there can't be more consistency this close to an event. I know that the variability can make things exciting but it also can make it frustrating. I good if I get a little snow, just no ice please.

[Requiem]

Hmm-- I really do think one of those lows next week could impact the southern WV. Not analogous in the slightest, of course, but February 2014 was assumed to be a dry blast until maybe 4 or 5 days out 

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A more chaotic low in that position, rather than a simple blossoming LW trough, would probably transfer more of its forward momentum into its own vorticity and building the block up even more...

No it won’t. I consulted with Judah and he agreed, that ridge falls apart and we go zonal by Monday. Feb looks like our best chance for some slush and snark posts.

[flya00]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

so I was mistaken, the north pole doesn't actually relocate to Nelson but instead Kelowna.  fine, I'll take that too

Even better for me

[eastvancouver]

Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the most extreme frame of any run I've ever seen, which the GFS spat out a couple of days ago?

[jakerepp]

Frontier A321 just had to go-around right in front of me as it had been following a Citation Latitude too closely on final. 

Sorry for the spam, but I figure if anyone could appreciate plane spotting, it's you lot. Blustery conditions and the contrasty background is making this fun.

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Yup! Massive maple trees on my street took some serious damage, and Lowell Larimer road between Everett and Snohomish was closed for a few days due to downed power lines in multiple spots. 

Still had to drive that to pick up my kid. Nothing like navigating downed electrical lines with no where to turn around.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Yup! Massive maple trees on my street took some serious damage, and Lowell Larimer road between Everett and Snohomish was closed for a few days due to downed power lines in multiple spots. 

Then I had snow two days later while the power was still out! 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, eastvancouver said:

Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the most extreme frame of any run I've ever seen, which the GFS spat out a couple of days ago?

It was a truly special run.

[The Cats Meow]

1 minute ago, eastvancouver said:

Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the most extreme frame of any run I've ever seen, which the GFS spat out a couple of days ago?

What is that?  Like 5' of snow in Olympia.  Ha!  bring it on.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Hmm-- I really do think one of those lows next week could impact the southern WV. Not analogous in the slightest, of course, but February 2014 was assumed to be a dry blast until maybe 4 or 5 days out 

February 2014 actually evolved in about 24 hours. Prior to that pretty much anyone north of Roseburg or so was high and dry but COLD.

[JW8]

Not enough snow in the Central Sound- throw it out. #kidding#weenie

1 minute ago, eastvancouver said:

Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the most extreme frame of any run I've ever seen, which the GFS spat out a couple of days ago?

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Deweydog said:

February 2014 actually evolved in about 24 hours. Prior to that pretty much anyone north of Roseburg or so was high and dry but COLD.

What led to such a drastic change in that short amount of time?

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, eastvancouver said:

Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the most extreme frame of any run I've ever seen, which the GFS spat out a couple of days ago?

That was such a stupid run.

[SeanNyberg]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is nothing. Not even close to witnessing complete meltdown from a rug pull. 

I don't think you get the point I was making.

We've had nothing but rounds and rounds of confirmation and positive trends. I think there comes a point when we say "well, it looks like there is a story being written here"

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

No it won’t. I consulted with Judah and he agreed, that ridge falls apart and we go zonal by Monday. Feb looks like our best chance for some slush and snark posts.

 

[eastvancouver]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

That was such a stupid run.

If it doesn't happen, I'm going to go to the GFS manager and demand my four feet of snow.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I don't think you get the point I was making.

We've had nothing but rounds and rounds of confirmation and positive trends. I think there comes a point when we say "well, it looks like there is a story being written here"

And the point I was making was no matter what you say, nothing is ever gonna change here. Preach on! 

[AbbyJr]

52 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure there’ll be much watering down with this one, unless people are expecting runs like 00z CMC or 18z ICON to verify, in which case yeah those will be “watered down” from all-time greatness to normal greatness.

Unfortunately, the Euro starts shifting that PV lobe eastward on the weekend. Do you think it’s being too progressive or probably accurate?

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What led to such a drastic change in that short amount of time?

Complicated setup with the elongated TPV stretching to the point where it went somewhat cyclogenic off Vancouver Island. Initially it was progged to just sag south and suppress the undercut even further. Instead it bucked the jet just enough to create a stationary front/deformation zone.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

5 minutes ago, The Cats Meow said:

What is that?  Like 5' of snow in Olympia.  Ha!  bring it on.

Ain't no crazy like a GFS Hour 384 run in winter.  And it wasn't even the 18z!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Hmm-- I really do think one of those lows next week could impact the southern WV. Not analogous in the slightest, of course, but February 2014 was assumed to be a dry blast until maybe 4 or 5 days out 

 

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What led to such a drastic change in that short amount of time?

 

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Complicated setup with the elongated TPV stretching to the point where it went somewhat cyclogenic off Vancouver Island. Initially it was progged to just sag south and suppress the undercut even further. Instead it bucked the jet just enough to create a stationary front/deformation zone.

It took 3 systems to finally scour out the cold air at PDX. That was a fun week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Blizzard warning for the Cascades 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like Andrew got 2.5” of snow yesterday.

[Eugene-5SW]

Quite the snowpack-killer AR in the long range

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, BurienSnowGlobe said:

If it makes you feel better, the thermal underwear I bought for my seven year old only included a top with the bottoms missing. I paid in cash so no receipt. I'm glad he still fits in the snow pants at least.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GraphCast looks great again. Arctic air settles in on Friday, then a system arrives on Monday. This could be a big snowstorm for many.

 

Just noticed the GraphCast has a Nor’easter for the east coast. It would be crazy if we’re getting pounded at the same time as @Phil. Let’s see how well Google does.

[High Desert Mat?]

For every Jim there’s a Tim.

Some are pessimists, some are optimists.