January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

And the GFS manages to fumble again.  Nice snow event, but it ruins the cold wave.

[Front Ranger]

GEM is a step back too with the cold air not penetrating as far south.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like it could be a rainy weekend here. GEM looks similar to GFS. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Worst case scenario BIG ice storm PDX metro

[Doinko]

[Mid Valley Duck]

Gem produces biblical snows for Seattle

[Phishy Wx]

lol

GFS'd

[TacomaWx]

One hell of a battleground of the air masses on the gfs. Doesn’t fully scour out the cold in western Washington. 

[BLI snowman]

Unfortunate trend tonight, CMC took a big jump towards the GFS.

[SimplySmoothWX]

uh oh....

[SeanNyberg]

00z GFS looking a little more realistic than the insane deep freeze the other models are showing.

[Requiem]

If the Euro blinks I'll just have to ponder how these well funded models are so consistently rancid for any sort of prediction in this region 

[SpaceRace22]

Lots of Pepto for Seattle on the GEM

[Gradient Keeper]

King GFS?

[Kolk1604]

lol 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS showing a foot of snow and half inch of ice for Seattle. That would be bad for my commute

[TacomaWx]

Well yeah if you were hoping for a big regional event those hopes took a big hit this evening…hopefully the models back off on that idea a bit. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

00z GFS looking a little more realistic than the insane deep freeze the other models are showing.

My non event call looks to be playing out. Break out the champs @Rubus Leucodermis

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty huge step towards the crap GFS on the GEM. The arctic front doesn't make much southward progress, that low offshore is nowhere near as suppressed and now heads way north. 

Compare 00z vs 12z GEM

This looks much closer to the gross 00z GFS

 

By comparison, the 12z Euro had that low near the OR/CA border.

 

If the Euro doesn't hold its ground tonight, it could get pretty ugly. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Well yeah if you were hoping for a big regional event those hopes took a big hit this evening…hopefully the models back off on that idea a bit. 

No they haven't. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty huge step towards the crap GFS on the GEM. The arctic front doesn't make much southward progress, that low offshore is nowhere near as suppressed and now heads way north. 

Compare 00z vs 12z GEM

This looks much closer to the gross 00z GFS

 

By comparison, the 12z Euro had that low near the OR/CA border.

 

If the Euro doesn't hold its ground tonight, it could get pretty ugly. 

I could see a compromised solution taking place. 

[snow_wizard]

How on Earth can everything look just the same as every other run and then it just goes totally different?

Going to have to think about this one.

[Phishy Wx]

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

No they haven't. 

If you’re south of OLM this is terrible news. Regional meaning the PNW.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gonna save the best model runs for last tonight. UKMET and EURO.

[Requiem]

I think PDX is still in play but this is reminding me somewhat of February 2021-- nasty ice storm for places south of downtown Portland 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty huge step towards the crap GFS on the GEM. The arctic front doesn't make much southward progress, that low offshore is nowhere near as suppressed and now heads way north. 

Compare 00z vs 12z GEM

This looks much closer to the gross 00z GFS

 

By comparison, the 12z Euro had that low near the OR/CA border.

 

If the Euro doesn't hold its ground tonight, it could get pretty ugly. 

 

Will be kind of a cruel twist if the wet snow threat on Tuesday night winds up being our main event.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Gem produces biblical snows for Seattle

The GFS has a lot of snow too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Seen this movie too many times with that arctic trough hanging up over southern BC or northern WA.

[Meatyorologist]

It's not that the GEM is bad. It's just that I've seen this movie before w/rt vanishing midlatitude support. And I keep falling for it 

In EPS we trust

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

If you’re south of OLM this is terrible news. Regional meaning the PNW.

But if you've been following this isn't the first time. A couple of days ago the GEM had a run that didn't dig as far south and switched back to a cold solution a couple of runs later. Both models will come around. 

[Phishy Wx]

probably why the nws and local media are playing it safe, no?

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Seen this movie too many times with that arctic trough hanging up over southern BC or northern WA.

Yeah. Honestly the models have done this to us more often in the last 5 years than they even did when I was younger. Maybe this pattern has just been more common lately. This will join a list of other recent events where the Euro shows a major regional blast 5-8 days away and we just end up with a trickle of cold (or nothing) down here. Models still haven't mastered our weird corner of the world. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

But if you've been following this isn't the first time. A couple of days ago the GEM had a run that didn't dig as far south and switched back to a cold solution a couple of runs later. Both models will come around. 

Time is pretty well running out on that....

[Meatyorologist]

How the north end of the lobe phases with the AK trough and immediately initiates an AL pattern is just classic poo tier pattern breakdown. This might be just a bad GFS run, or perhaps a FAT dose of El Niño reality.

[Requiem]

I feel like we saw this sort of situation in Feb 2021 wrt to how far the low dragged the Arctic air south-- and models had pretty much given up until 48 hours before the event. It's just copium but we've seen this before 

[the_convergence_zone]

Someday the GFS is going to be replaced with a good model and we’re going to look back fondly on the good old days when it pulled random guesses out of a hat. 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

Will be kind of a cruel twist if the wet snow threat on Tuesday night winds up being our main event.

My thoughts too. 

I got a bit cocky and assumed the GFS would cave to the other models tonight and we would have consensus. 

Hopefully we can make something happen Tuesday night since this entire event could end up being just a 30-40 mile stretch of wet isothermal slop somewhere on I-5 and nothing after.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

But if you've been following this isn't the first time. A couple of days ago the GEM had a run that didn't dig as far south and switched back to a cold solution a couple of runs later. Both models will come around. 

It's a bad time for models to flip the wrong way...not a lot of time left to correct the other way. Could certainly happen, but if the Euro makes a move this way tonight, odds will look a lot worse for regional cold.

[SpaceRace22]

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