January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Perturbed Member]

Thinking the surface temps being cold here Friday-Sunday is probably a lock as long as the cold gets delivered to the Columbia basin. Arctic front or not, the backdoor will bring in the cold via the gorge and keep it there for a while. This is of course assuming that system doesn't go full GFS and go way north. 

Not loving how much WAA is happening here though. Lot of the precip used up as ZR. The 850s don't stay below freezing too long.

Last 2 Euro runs show a kind of fun snow to zr and then back to snow again as the 850s cool and the low sinks south. Classic battle of the airmasses. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS trended wet and it has led the way. 

To be fair, the GFS is generally too wet. At the bigger picture, it may win this one but at the mesoscale level the Euro is still far more superior. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, we got 2.5" total on Saturday, 2" in the morning and then another half inch in the evening. Hoping for some decent snow Tuesday-Thursday, we'll see. 

I was surprised how much snow there was down in the Hoodland corridor last evening, Andrew. Rhododendron looked like it got several inches.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Even when they do bring snow the main show is inevitably later. The only exception I can think of is Dec 1990 in Seattle.

Feb 1989, Nov 2010, Feb 2011...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Its been more wet than EURO for a few days now. Since it has been largely correct for this event I'm figuring it wins here.

Not sure... the GFS always seems to overestimate precip.   The GFS might be doing well with the overall pattern but with surface details its hard to beat the ECMWF once the upper level pattern is locked in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Complete snow now and 32 degrees at home. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO system looks to arrive earlier now for Friday afternoon.

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Thinking the surface temps being cold here Friday-Sunday is probably a lock as long as the cold gets delivered to the Columbia basin. Arctic front or not, the backdoor will bring in the cold via the gorge and keep it there for a while. This is of course assuming that system doesn't go full GFS and go way north. 

Not loving how much WAA is happening here though. Lot of the precip used up as ZR. The 850s don't stay below freezing too long.

Last 2 Euro runs show a kind of fun snow to zr and then back to snow again as the 850s cool and the low sinks south. Classic battle of the airmasses. 

East wind is humming too as that parent low approaches, a small surface low gets out ahead of it and flips the wind switch. This has major snow/ice event all over it. That is a big time AR pointed at an arctic airmass to our east.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Complete snow now and 32 degrees at home. 

Nice... another Hood Canal special!   Just drizzle with a few snowflakes mixed in here.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... the GFS always seems to overestimate precip.   The GFS might be doing well with the overall pattern but with surface details its hard to beat the ECMWF once the upper level pattern is locked in.

My guess is it is too far south with everything. The trend north shown on the GFS is the climo norm and that is how this entire system has progressed. 

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know... but we were talking about highs in the teens a couple days ago so just clarifying.  

I see. Yes, the Euro has definitely been pulled toward the GFS MUCH more than the GFS was pulled toward the Euro.

We still have no clue how anything will play out. I mean, the Euro may totally cave to the GFS at the end, but then we may end up with 10 degree highs.

So, it is funny to hear folks talk about which model was right or wrong, when ALL we have are wobbling models, we have no clue what is going to happen and no way to determine which model was actually right or wrong. (this last part has nothing to do with you, lol, just got tacked on to my reply)

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

My guess is it is too far south with everything. The trend north shown on the GFS is the climo norm and that is how this entire system has progressed. 

Yeah... definitely agree that the ECMWF could very well trend north with the Friday/Saturday systems over the next few days since that is what the GFS is showing.

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks good for the Raccoon guy. 

hardly

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

I see. Yes, the Euro has definitely been pulled toward the GFS MUCH more than the GFS was pulled toward the Euro.

We still have no clue how anything will play out. I mean, the Euro may totally cave to the GFS at the end, but then we may end up with 10 degree highs.

So, it is funny to hear folks talk about which model was right or wrong, when ALL we have are wobbling models, we have no clue what is going to happen and no way to determine which model was actually right or wrong. (this last part has nothing to do with you, lol, just got tacked on to my reply)

It really is interesting how no model has won this battle... they all have had ups and downs.  

[Deweydog]

Here’s a “fun” 12z trip down memory lane… 

Edited January 8 by Deweydog

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Feb 1989, Nov 2010, Feb 2011...

Maybe in Seattle but wasn’t living there in those years and they were dry or mostly so IMBY.

Even in Dec 2021 (5" Christmas Eve into Christmas Day) got a little over twice that a few days later, so the arctic front snow was a prelude and not the main show.

[Sandy rocks]

Boy it sure isn't very warm today. My phone said it was supposed to be 59 but it is only 37. Temperature is going down instead of up this morning.

[Winterdog]

It looks like I'm likely not getting any snow out of this.  Gets chilly for a couple days.  I'm pleased that I spent many hours each day for the past 8 days surveying every little wiggle in all the models to end up with essentially a zero result.  Speaking of wiggles.  Pretty cool how the Euro wiggled it's way eastward over the past several runs.  Those little wiggles add up!

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

hardly

Was that you in the racoon gif? Do you have lots of raccoons in your area? We do have them but here the roadkill is overwhelmingly deer, pheasants, or quail. Racoons aren't often seen in my rural area.

[TT-SEA]

850mb temp loop from 12Z ECMWF... basin cold is important factor over the weekend.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It really is interesting how no model has won this battle... they all have had ups and downs.  

Hagler vs Hearns.

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It really is interesting how no model has won this battle... they all have had ups and downs.  

And the problem with this forum (and this isn't personal, it's a general problem with PNW weather) is that Ups for some are Downs for others and vice versa. So... this event should provide for a good post-mortem

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maybe in Seattle but wasn’t living there in those years and they were dry or mostly so IMBY.

Even in Dec 2021 (5" Christmas Eve into Christmas Day) got a little over twice that a few days later, so the arctic front snow was a prelude and not the main show.

Well the other poster is in Seattle. It's weird that he's been there 11 years and said he's seen hardly any snow with Arctic fronts...there have been several that delivered to vast majority of Seattle metro. And many more before that.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Sandy rocks said:

Boy it sure isn't very warm today. My phone said it was supposed to be 59 but it is only 37. Temperature is going down instead of up this morning.

59??  

That sounds totally wrong... no model ever showed anything like that.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Well the other poster is in Seattle. It's weird that he's been there 11 years and said he's seen hardly any snow with Arctic fronts...there have been several that delivered to vast majority of Seattle metro. And many more before that.

2006 and 2010 were good in Seattle... but that is more than 11 years ago. 

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp loop from 12Z ECMWF... basin cold is important factor over the weekend.

Gotta have that "cold pool" consolation prize.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

East wind is humming too as that parent low approaches, a small surface low gets out ahead of it and flips the wind switch. This has major snow/ice event all over it. That is a big time AR pointed at an arctic airmass to our east.

Looks like it starts off as snow for PDX, switches to ice then back to snow. Hopefully we can stay all snow for as long as possible.

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through day 8... western Oregon and SW WA is the big winner on this run with multiple events.   But obviously a trend north is definitely possible for the weekend systems.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

2006 and 2010 were good in Seattle... but that is more than 11 years ago. 

Justin mentioned 2019 and 2021 more recently. 

Really, the only Arctic fronts that have been really dry for the Puget Sound this century (unless I'm forgetting one): Feb 2006, Dec 2009, Dec 2013, and Feb 2014. And the latter two ended up delivering for OR.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Gotta have that "cold pool" consolation prize.

Keeps Portland chilly for a long time... still going even next Tuesday when the upper levels are warm.  

[Requiem]

Ice accumulation this run doesn't look insignificant 

[RayRay]

What is everybody whining about?

I see 28 inches of snow in Redmond Wa in the next ten days…

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Justin mentioned 2019 and 2021 more recently. 

Really, the only Arctic fronts that have been really dry for the Puget Sound this century (unless I'm forgetting one): Feb 2006, Dec 2009, Dec 2013, and Feb 2014. And the latter two ended up delivering for OR.

Good point... he must have had snow with the 2019 and 2021 events.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

For what it’s worth, I am not expecting a completely dry arctic front this time. Pretty much every model run has shown it touching off something between flurries and a light accumulation. But I’m also expecting any main event to come later.

 

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Interesting to see some posters so active again now that the runs have more or less gone to sh*t. At least compared to where they were a couple days ago.

team glass half empty

[Slushy Inch]

24 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The Euro is... yes. But experience has shown that these things tend to have a hard time picking up light precipitation that can add up quickly.

I know that you know that. Or that you know that I think that. LOL. So when I comment on your posts, I'm not directing it at you, I'm just adding some experiential context for the 300+ guests who are following along.

I’ve yet to see light precip add up quickly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Keeps Portland chilly for a long time... still going even next Tuesday when the upper levels are warm.  

This is great, low level cool/cold air and many days with negative temp anomalies, Only the GFS is not showing this!!!

[Requiem]

The January 1998 agenda still verifying 

[Sandy rocks]

Absolutely no ice, it can go away. I'd rather haver cold rain than ice any day. Maybe you guys up north would like it, I can try to push it that way.

[MossMan]

Welp…Since my area is now going to get skunked in the snow department, perhaps the possible windstorm tomorrow will still be decent?