January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SeanNyberg]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Welp…Since my area is now going to get skunked in the snow department, perhaps the possible windstorm tomorrow will still be decent? 

Yep! Enjoy

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Absolutely no ice, it can go away. I'd rather haver cold rain than ice any day. Maybe you guys up north would like it, I can try to push it that way.

It’s looking like a snow to ice to back to snow event.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is great, low level cool/cold air and many days with negative temp anomalies, Only the GFS is not showing this!!!

Portland temps will be more impressive with this event than Seattle in the end despite arctic front probably not making it there.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Welp…Since my area is now going to get skunked in the snow department, perhaps the possible windstorm tomorrow will still be decent? 

You won't get skunked. This moisture is going to trend north. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Portland temps will be more impressive with this event than Seattle in the end despite arctic front probably not making it there.  

Grateful for the Gorge!

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good point... he must have had snow with the 2019 and 2021 events.   

I had snow but nothing more than the 0.5-1.0" that various Euro runs have been showing. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Ice accumulation this run doesn't look insignificant 

Rough for the Willamette Valley. A lot of the Euro snow is very wet snow, roughly 7:1 ratios. If it's overdoing the WAA aloft at all this is a major snowstorm.

[iFred]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Here’s a “fun” 12z trip down memory lane… 

Oh man, I thought I missed out on canceling you over the dead loved ones "joke", but maybe this post could be it!

[Doinko]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Rough for the Willamette Valley. A lot of the Euro snow is very wet snow, roughly 7:1 ratios. If it's overdoing the WAA aloft at all this is a major snowstorm.

Weather apps are showing stuff now, my app shows a 10-16" snowstorm. Probably going to get the general public to notice more

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Absolutely no ice, it can go away. I'd rather haver cold rain than ice any day. Maybe you guys up north would like it, I can try to push it that way.

Formal protest noted : No ice

I’ll second the motion and please do not push it my way

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Rough for the Willamette Valley. A lot of the Euro snow is very wet snow, roughly 7:1 ratios. If it's overdoing the WAA aloft at all this is a major snowstorm.

That's.... really rough actually. Lot of moisture to work with

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Rough for the Willamette Valley. A lot of the Euro snow is very wet snow, roughly 7:1 ratios. If it's overdoing the WAA aloft at all this is a major snowstorm.

This would be horrific. 

[ShawniganLake]

There is frozen precip falling Right Now.  

Roads are slushy but it’s mostly melting as fast as it falls. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You won't get skunked. This moisture is going to trend north. 

If I had to bet..  I would go with this scenario.    Seems to happen more often than not.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Welp…Since my area is now going to get skunked in the snow department, perhaps the possible windstorm tomorrow will still be decent? 

Models are going to change 20 more times between now and next weekend.  You’ll probably do fine  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Grateful for the Gorge!

Bring it Gorge! We are ready to get Blasted!!!

 

 

[SnowWillarrive]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... definitely agree that the ECMWF could very well trend north with the Friday/Saturday systems over the next few days since that is what the GFS is showing.

Friday is eternity with this situation. Seems like every run is vastly different. 

[iFred]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

If I had to bet..  I would go with this scenario.    Seems to happen more often than not.

Really thinking this a Skagit north situation. Already looking forward to the next reset, hopefully in a few weeks.

[Doinko]

What do high/low temps on the Euro look like for PDX?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Rough for the Willamette Valley. A lot of the Euro snow is very wet snow, roughly 7:1 ratios. If it's overdoing the WAA aloft at all this is a major snowstorm.

Icy! What do the sleet maps look like?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

If I had to bet..  I would go with this scenario.    Seems to happen more often than not.

Climo norms have won out with every new model output they shift to climo norms. What usually happens here? Cold air gets hung up and arctic front stalls. Everything pushes East. That pulls the moisture north. Todays 12z GFS is probably going to be where the EURO ends up tomorrow night. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Oh man, I thought I missed out on canceling you over the dead loved ones "joke", but maybe this post could be it!

Hasn’t been the Euro’s finest hour. Canceling anyone over it won’t change it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If any of these runs other than the GFS verified we would see a nice run of below average temps. At face value much better than 1998. 

[TacomaWx]

42 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I'm on my 11th winter here. 

Hmmmm definitely been some arctic frontal snows since then. I’m not sure why you think every arctic front leads to no snowfall. I’d say it happens more often than not. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen this week but I think it’ll end up happening IMO. 

[Olive1010]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Weather apps are showing stuff now, my app shows a 10-16" snowstorm. Probably going to get the general public to notice more

Yeha same, it says "potential winter storm" I live just west of Bethany too.

[Perturbed Member]

11 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Rough for the Willamette Valley. A lot of the Euro snow is very wet snow, roughly 7:1 ratios. If it's overdoing the WAA aloft at all this is a major snowstorm.

Yeah I am hoping the upper levels will hold on better than modeled. We don't need that kind of ice damage again in the valley...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Climo norms have won out with every new model output they shift to climo norms. What usually happens here? Cold air gets hung up and arctic front stalls. Everything pushes East. That pulls the moisture north. Todays 12z GFS is probably going to be where the EURO ends up tomorrow night. 

Whiskey tango November!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

If I had to bet..  I would go with this scenario.    Seems to happen more often than not.

Even if the low doesn't trend north, the moisture shield will probably be further north than anticipated. 

At this point the Seattle area looks very good for cold, and I'm sure some moisture will make it up there. I'd rather be sitting there with the most important ingredient (Deep KOLD) than have 6-8" of precip but be sitting with freezing rain or 33F rain (Though that would be better than ZR.). 

 

[ShawniganLake]

34F and slushy. Gonna get very windy late tonight here. 
 

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah I am hoping the upper levels will hold on better than modeled. We don't need that kind of ice damage again in the valley...

GEM, UKMET, and ICON show great events for Portland, hoping those win out. I wonder what the ensembles will be like for this system

[SouthHillFrosty]

Control is good for Oregon

[Sandy rocks]

I realized I typed in the wrong number, I meant 49 not 59.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Control is good for Oregon

OMG! Control ALWAYS delivers the goods. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Even if the low doesn't trend north, the moisture shield will probably be further north than anticipated. 

At this point the Seattle area looks very good for cold, and I'm sure some moisture will make it up there. I'd rather be sitting there with the most important ingredient (Deep KOLD) than have 6-8" of precip but be sitting with freezing rain or 33F rain (Though that would be better than ZR.). 

 

Overall deeper cold further south is better for everyone in the region. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Control algorithm just isn't programmed to show ZR, shows it as snow. 

Just kidding. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Olive1010]

Does anyone know what those snow tool things are called where they average all the models out and come up with like an averaged snow amount?

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

Really thinking this a Skagit north situation. Already looking forward to the next reset, hopefully in a few weeks.

Wasn’t there another SSW event that could happen soon? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

From what i can see we have received about 1/2 of snow.

[Blizzard777]

11 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Bring it Gorge! We are ready to get Blasted!!!

 

 

I got to enjoy living there 5 years at the mouth of the gully!  Fantastic weather extremes ! Glad I experienced it 

lol, found out it was useless to plant trees