January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[RaleighHillsRunner]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ronaldo sure has a way about him, nightmare fuel for sure but it’s coming   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Currently 50F with some rain.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Suppression depression.

Right, I guess specifically I meant temps.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Are we doing a forecast contest for this one? The ones last year were fun

And let's average all of the forecasts out and see if we do better than Cliff and NWS.

That'll show 'em.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Ronaldo sure has a way about him, nightmare fuel for sure but it’s coming   

He has been a wreck.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Currently 50F with some rain.

52 at PDX. Send that cool air up this way!

[AlTahoe]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like forecast is for South Tahoe to get 6-12" by Thursday. Hopefully more over the weekend!

yeah Wednesday storm is looking good and should be enough to open all the bases at Heavenly. The Euro weekend Storm would be enough to open all advanced terrain. Gfs solution would be a disaster with warm temps and no storms after Wednesday for the foreseeable future 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like that whole area benefits from a rich man’s Forest Grove/Hood Canal affect.

Yeah, when there's any sort of easterly component cold air dams up against the Vancouver Island Range and since the Strait of Georgia narrows at the north it takes a lot to scour it. It's also closer to the key cold sources with the Fraser Valley and a bunch of other inlets pouring down into it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Goofus back the Pepto a bit for Saturday, but I'd be happy with this.

[Sandy rocks]

Wow that is a dramatic change in temperature. I was 39 a thirty minutes ago, now my temperature is 50.

[Mid Valley Duck]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the GEM.   Shifting north seems to have to have stopped in the models at least for now.  

The GEFS have shifted slightly south tonight. Most 12z EPS members favored NW oregon/SW Washington. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

52 at PDX. Send that cool air up this way!

So strange, it was 38 degree rain late morning south side of sylvan hill, felt like winter…now tonight it’s balmy?

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

He has been a wreck.

Safe to say this event has moved solidly ahead of Jan 2020 and Jan 2011 as far as potential all-time rug pulls.

[Kolk1604]

GEFS and GEPS in agreement on cold and snow 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Wow that is a dramatic change in temperature. I was 39 a thirty minutes ago, now my temperature is 50.

Yeah I have gone up 5 degrees very quickly. Up to 45 and windy. 

[Phishy Wx]

so a late 4th Quarter rally?  for a football analogy.  soon to be a come from behind victory?

 

hoping to score record cold over here, that's what I'm invested in

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Safe to say this event has moved solidly ahead of Jan 2020 and Jan 2011 as far as potential all-time rug pulls.

Ya, the sting of it is far less than it could have been.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Safe to say this event has moved solidly ahead of Jan 2020 and Jan 2011 as far as potential all-time rug pulls.

Jan 2011 still burns, but at least that February 2011 event was pretty epic.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

GEFS and GEPS in agreement on cold and snow 

Suppose I could live with that. 

[TT-SEA]

All GEFS members for the early Saturday morning period... 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Right, I guess specifically I meant temps.

Still plenty impressive. Downtown Seattle ripped off 9 subfreezing highs that month, and a couple more 33s for good measure. Good enough for their 4th most on record in a winter (only 1915-16, 1949-50, and 1968-69 had more).

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Safe to say this event has moved solidly ahead of Jan 2020 and Jan 2011 as far as potential all-time rug pulls.

Shhhh  

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Speaking of snow, it's still dumping down around Campbell River. Must be around 4~6" up there so far:

Pretty snowy around Nanaimo too. Inland areas on the east side of Vancouver Island sure don't need much to get a decent snowfall.

Black creek is showing a little over 8” for a storm total.  Depth is just under 6” there.  1/2 mile visibility in moderate snow at CR airport. 
 

Picked up 1.3” here today.  Better than I expected. 33F and absolutely pouring right now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Suppose I could live with that. 

Wouldn't complain about that 13.6 either.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All GEFS members for the early Saturday morning period... 

i spy some spread

[Olive1010]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

GEFS and GEPS in agreement on cold and snow 

Win-win for every body really

[TT-SEA]

All Canadian ensemble members for the early Saturday morning period... fair number of them look like GFS.  

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All GEFS members for the early Saturday morning period... 

LOCKED IN

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All Canadian ensemble members for the early Saturday morning period... fair number of them look like GFS.  

Feels like Puget Sound is well positioned

[Chewbacca Defense]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Temps will be in the 40s in Seattle on Thursday... no issues down here that day until maybe the evening.   Should be good as long as you can back home by 1 p.m.

it's interesting though, most of the weather apps are dropping the temp to 29-31 overnight Wednesday/Thursday morning.  I didn't do a weatherbell subscription this year, so I'm having to rely on apps and this forum.  He would be getting on the road in Bellingham at 3am Thursday morning.  He gets home Sunday afternoon and will be driving back then.  We will figure that out later. 

They were showing rain/snow for the corridor this afternoon, but now I'm seeing all snow for about Mt. Vernon north, and rain/snow with accumulation down to about Marysville....

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All GEFS members for the early Saturday morning period... 

This is why averaging ensemble snow totals isn't a great prediction tool. Probably better to take the median solution.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i spy some spread

Somewhat... Pretty good alignment tbh. Just some ensembles are a bit faster/slower

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

it's interesting though, most of the weather apps are dropping the temp to 29-31 overnight Wednesday/Thursday morning.  I didn't do a weatherbell subscription this year, so I'm having to rely on apps and this forum.  He would be getting on the road in Bellingham at 3am Thursday morning.  He gets home Sunday afternoon and will be driving back then.  We will figure that out later. 

They were showing rain/snow for the corridor this afternoon, but now I'm seeing all snow for about Mt. Vernon north, and rain/snow with accumulation down to about Marysville....

Ahhh... 3 a.m. could be a little more problematic but guessing freeway will be just wet.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Win-win for every body really

I-guess no body really lives south of Salem

[GHweatherChris]

I will take one Canadian please!

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Wow that is a dramatic change in temperature. I was 39 a thirty minutes ago, now my temperature is 50.

Gradients flipped around ahead of the next cold front. 

But yeah, up until the last few hours, my spread for the day had only been 42/39. Up to 48 now.

 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Jan 2011 still burns, but at least that February 2011 event was pretty epic.

No doubt. The most impressive Arctic event for pure anomalies this century, imo. If that blast had happened 4-8 weeks earlier, the numbers would have been eye-popping.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Somewhat... Pretty good alignment tbh. Just some ensembles are a bit faster/slower

6-hours snow amounts provide a little more detail to the picture for the same time (during the day on Saturday).   Only a few look like the operational run.  

[Snownerd3000]

16 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

He has been a wreck.

We all have

[MWG]

17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Currently 50F with some rain.

Dang! High today here was 41F and keeps bouncing down to 39F.