January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[LowerGarfield]

29 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

I believe that 74. Our back door window was starting to physically move with the big gusts recently. Had to hold some with tape. Need to do the outside too when it subsides.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here’s the freezing rain totals.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM looks a little south on Friday continuing a southward trend the last 3 runs... further updates to follow.

It's so close it's hard to say

 Some frames look a little north and some look a little south.

[markjb]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

My current favorite model is the 01Z HRRR, it shows me getting 3-4" of snow overnight, oh and look he returned home.....

sorry man... now your screwed for sure !!!!

[MikeInEverett]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Must have been that morning! 

Yeah it must’ve been. The GFS and the NAM both showed almost a foot IMBY the day before and I got 2” I remember having a weenie meltdown now that I think about it. (Picture is bad quality because my phone is out of storage lol) I think most of the precip just ended up going to the north.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's so close it's hard to say

 Some frames look a little north and some look a little south.

Definite shift north on the 12Z run which has been reversed now.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I have been completely without power since Monday. What did I miss, is it coming? Give me a serious answer please lol

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Saturday morning very cold temps and wind chill is going to make it feel around 0 for both SEA and PDX.

 

[icyasf]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I really don’t want to jinx it, but I don’t think it is a far stretch to say that Corvallis might see some action if we are lucky and this thing trends just a few miles south

[SnowWillarrive]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM also looks a little snowier in King County with the arctic front Thursday.

Looks nice for EPSL. The NAM seems schizophrenic at times. But I’ll take it. 

[Phishy Wx]

yep, cold will be the big story over here.  I'm here for it.

[westcoastexpat]

Anyone think this event will be colder than Dec 21/22 of last year? We hit 8F lows here both nights

Might be difficult to best Dec 27, 2021 where we got down to 4 F

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Yeah it must’ve been. The GFS and the NAM both showed almost a foot IMBY the day before and I got 2” I remember having a weenie meltdown now that I think about it. (Picture is bad quality because my phone is out of storage lol) I think most of the precip just ended up going to the north.

Yeah I’m pretty sure you guys are talking about 12/20. I remember the disappointment with that one down south. Had like 10 minutes of snow then the precip cut off. Bitter cold though everything froze up. Couple hours later though we had some light snow develop and we got close to an inch still. So all was forgiven. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

Anyone think this event will be colder than Dec 21/22 of last year? We hit 8F lows here both nights

Might be difficult to best Dec 27, 2021 where we got down to 4 F

Depends on where you are. Lowest low temp in the past couple years was 15 (2021) IMBY. Coldest max is 24 (2021) Could come very close or surpass both of those 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Anyone think this event will be colder than Dec 21/22 of last year? We hit 8F lows here both nights

Might be difficult to best Dec 27, 2021 where we got down to 4 F

Would have helped to have snowcover but that is not looking good now. Looks like a December 2009 dry boring blast. 

[TacomaWx]

Radar looks juicy offshore. Best of luck to our friends down south tonight. I definitely think even if precip ends up further north here in Tacoma it’ll be too warm with S winds and at 39 currently. Maybe some places south of Olympia do better than expected if some heavier precip develops. 

[MV_snow]

Not really buying the GFS solution. I hope to score an inch with the arctic front, have a couple of days with sub freezing highs, and be on the fringe of the Saturday system with some mood flakes.

[Lars43]

7 minutes ago, icyasf said:

I really don’t want to jinx it, but I don’t think it is a far stretch to say that Corvallis might see some action if we are lucky and this thing trends just a few miles south

Can we please .....just stretch that luck a little further south....I mean it's not a huge ask only 15 miniscule miles  

[awright-31]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Radar looks juicy offshore. Best of luck to our friends down south tonight. I definitely think even if precip ends up further north here in Tacoma it’ll be too warm with S winds and at 39 currently. Maybe some places south of Olympia do better than expected if some heavier precip develops. 

It's 37 currently at the base of Rock Candy Mtn (562 feet) just west of Olympia. Will be watching for some snow there. Winds have calmed considerably but still out of the SW.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

Not really buying the GFS solution. I hope to score an inch with the arctic front, have a couple of days with sub freezing highs, and be on the fringe of the Saturday system with some mood flakes.

I’m not far from you. Let’s hope for a few surprises. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

6-8” for the metro with the parent low well to the west. This would be a very snowy event

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Anyone think this event will be colder than Dec 21/22 of last year? We hit 8F lows here both nights

Might be difficult to best Dec 27, 2021 where we got down to 4 F

Especially because snow cover will be scant, instead of extensive, this time.

[Weiner Warrior]

This place is going to be weenieville when everything shifts North to Western WA tonight.

[Mid Valley Duck]

18 minutes ago, icyasf said:

I really don’t want to jinx it, but I don’t think it is a far stretch to say that Corvallis might see some action if we are lucky and this thing trends just a few miles south

Welcome to the ride brother!

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

This place is going to be weenieville when everything shifts North to Western WA tonight.

I don't think we see a shift north in the models to cause a breakdown until probably tomorrow night (if at all), its all about the progression of the cold air, real time will be the time to look forward to.

Edited January 10 by GHweatherChris

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

This place is going to be weenieville when everything shifts North to Western WA tonight.

I don't think it will, but I would find it hilarious.

And, who knows, it might. The models have not been particularly stable with this one. Would not trust the weekend event until 48 hours out (i.e. Thursday). Lotsa time for things to change until then.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Photo dump from today, awful whiteout conditions on the drive to bachelor, and SUPER windy. At times we couldn't see more than 25 feet down the road, although unfortunately I didn't get a vid from when the conditions peaked at their worst. We NEARLY got in a car crash, that would have been bad....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

This place is going to be weenieville when everything shifts North to Western WA tonight.

Won't say that it's impossible, but let's not pretend like this place already isn't weenieville with the "it's over for anyone north of Olympia" posts today 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Won't say that it's impossible, but let's not pretend like this place already isn't weenieville with the "it's over for anyone north of Olympia" posts today 

Naw this isn’t bad. Wait until Thursday when Portland issues an WSW then you’ll get a lot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon jumped north

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Won't say that it's impossible, but let's not pretend like this place already isn't weenieville with the "it's over for anyone north of Olympia" posts today 

lol yeah definitely some western Washington weenism underway already. We will survive maybe some surprises coming up this way potentially as well. 

[MossMan]

Well I told the kids at the dinner table this evening that I am putting their sleds back in the attic since we are now barely in the 2nd shade of grey and the dusting that we probably won’t even get won’t be enough to sled in. Lots of tears flowing but it is what it is.

Edited January 10 by MossMan

[Requiem]

ICON looking very similar to its 12z run. Interesting theme showing up...

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, in real time this weekend things will definitely be further north than modeled.

Time to stop looking at models and look out the window. 

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

 

Photo dump from today, awful whiteout conditions on the drive to bachelor, and SUPER windy. At times we couldn't see more than 25 feet down the road, although unfortunately I didn't get a vid from when the conditions peaked at their worst. We NEARLY got in a car crash, that would have been bad....

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beautiful! You don't want that accident. Spouse says she's now traumatized of snow since her accident took place during a squall and is seeing her counselor tomorrow about it.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

lol yeah definitely some western Washington weenism underway already. We will survive maybe some surprises coming up this way potentially as well. 

Don't pretend you are above that, be honest.

[snow_wizard]

Big move north on the ICON.  Hmmmmm.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Well I told the kids at the dinner table this evening that I am putting their sleds back in the attic since we are now barely in the 2nd shade of grey now and the dusting that we probably won’t even get won’t be enough to sled in. Lots of tears flowing but it is what it is.

Hopefully they are old enough to realize that they’ve had a ton of awesome snow to play in in recent years, probably will this year too, and that their dad is a huge  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon jumped north

Well... sort of just undoing its silly 18Z run.  

[Hawksfan2008]

If this thing were farther north at this point we’d all be nervous right now. Two things we often see: Cold air tends to not dig as far as modeled and those lows often come in stronger and farther north than modeled. We’re in a very exciting spot and there is room for anyone (maybe even everyone) to get some snow. Good luck all and enjoy the ride!