January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You're in a prime spot for this, I'd be shocked if you don't get snow from the outflow tonight into tomorrow.

I think he’s just setting expectations very low in case it doesn’t snow. 

[RentonHill]

One of the stations I watch in Moses lake has dropped 10 degrees in the last hour

[Prairiedog]

43 minutes ago, Requiem said:

GEM is further north-- just enough to push heavy precip into the south metro 

So we have the ICON, GEM, and GFS having the Metro in the prrecip shield.  EURO a bit south?  RGEM not our friend.  NAM not reliable.  Will the 850's support snow most of the time?  Still some questions yet.  What have I missed?  I just don't want any ice.  Still licking my wounds from '21.  At least for now, I don't have a warm nose coming over me.  That will probably happen at some point but the moisture might be done. 

[MikeInEverett]

Getting flashback to last year when a CZ formed 1 mile south of my house and dropped 2” of snow and I got skunked. Looks to be forming in a similar area 

[Chewbacca Defense]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would take the battery out of the car and keep it in my dorm room overnight so I had the benefit of a warm battery delivering a full charge.

Good plan but too much of a pain in the a** to do with current car technology....have to reprogram everything (power windows, radio/nav security codes, etc). 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

-58F at Watson Lake just before Christmas 2022

Yep that's it i couldn't remember. Looks like this will be colder.

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, van city said:

Great customer service!!! 

Lol, Costco was like that back in the old days!  We used to fire members if they stepped outta line.  I remember one guy coming back pleading to get his membership back.   The good old days without a policy book 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[North_County]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Arctic boundary has crossed the 49th parallel into Sumas on the Nws Obs. Map. 35 DP 23 with NE wind. 

Can confirm. Sometime between 8am and 8:20.

[AlTahoe]

picked up 10" of snow overnight. One of the rare storms where Reno got the same amount that we did. from mt biking at New years to 24" on the ground now. 

[Timmy]

We are gonna have to fly into this a bit blind. The 12z graf took 8” off our snow total.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not to often you see moisture make it over the Olympics like that, might be good for seattle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Here is my snow chance, currently east of Abbotsford and slowly moving west with the arctic front.

[Doinko]

UKMET is a slight shift north

 

[Front Ranger]

Looking at the arctic front from Dec 1968, which this looks like a slightly poorer man's version of...

- BLI saw about an inch of snow

- downtown Seattle saw a trace

- SEA saw half an inch

- OLM somehow scored 8"

Only thing with 1968 is it extended further west than this one, which helped it pick up a little more moisture as it dropped south.

[the_convergence_zone]

Hooray, we did get precip here today! Unfortunately, it's 38 and raining. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep that's it i couldn't remember. Looks like this will be colder.

Not sure about that up there, but this is more anomalous than anything we’ve seen recently in terms of how far the coldest air is pushed south in western Canada. Calgary could see their coldest weather in almost 20 years. 

[runninthruda206]

A FEW FLAKES IN FIRST HILL. I REPEAT A FEW FLAKES IN FIRST HILL 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

picked up 10" of snow overnight. One of the rare storms where Reno got the same amount that we did. from mt biking at New years to 24" on the ground now. 

Just in time. 

I see Heavenly got 19" new. Flying in tomorrow am!

[MikeInEverett]

Oh yup that’s totally going to set up south of Everett for now

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET is a slight shift north

 

Sure is a stubborn little guy

[BlvuSumit]

Very light snow in convergence band here in Bellevue. Let’s hope the arctic boundary helps fire up the precip later this afternoon

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, North_County said:

Can confirm. Sometime between 8am and 8:20.

Already 28 in sumas. Pretty rapid drop. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

One thing I've noticed looking at the models for last night and this morning is the mesoscale models are much more bearish on QPF than the operational. I wonder why that is the case. Seems like this system will have pretty good dynamics to it and the low is trending stronger. Anyone know why that might be the case?

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm going with 2 to 4 inches between Everett and Tacoma as front moves South. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not to often you see moisture make it over the Olympics like that, might be good for seattle.

looks like more of a downslope off the Olympics and then picking up moisture off the sound.  Sound effect if you will

[Mid Valley Duck]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think Salem sees a little snow. I’m guessing from looking at the GFS snow and ZR maps that Salem could also get a ton of sleet. If someone has that map please post. I think Salem and Marion county see all three precip types. The more northern GFS/GEM tracks would be minimal snow at SLE, a NAM/ICON, Hrrr solution would be more snow. I think down to about Albany/Corvallis has a decent chance at seeing at least a little snow. It’s also pretty common for precip to start as snow a bit further south then modeled in these setups. January 7, 2017 is a good example, precip was expected to be ZR south of Salem and eugene got several inches of snow before. The changeover.

I live 4 miles south of the Marion/Linn county line. It'll be interesting to see the mix I get. Widely varies by the model you are looking at. It does seem like with the first surface low it will be mostly or all snow. The second low it seems like it'll be no snow and all sleet/freezing rain.

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just in time. 

I see Heavenly got 19" new. Flying in tomorrow am!

Yeah a lake effect band sat over Heavenly for a bit when the flow turned northerly and enhanced their totals. They really needed it. 

[FrozenBites]

Seems to be more cold air being pushed into ocean. Imagine if there was an extra push to spin up something. Anything is possible. Worth keeping an eye on.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET is a slight shift north

 

Low about to make landfall Saturday 4pm.

[SnowySeeker50]

35f currently. Tonight is most likely the main event here. Hoping to get something before entering the freezer.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Time to start watching in real time, Hopefully we will see some action as the leading edge of the trough gets to the coast of bc. I'm already surprised how fast the radar is waking up.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looking at the arctic front from Dec 1968, which this looks like a slightly poorer man's version of...

- BLI saw about an inch of snow

- downtown Seattle saw a trace

- SEA saw half an inch

- OLM somehow scored 8"

Only thing with 1968 is it extended further west than this one, which helped it pick up a little more moisture as it dropped south.

What date did the front come through? I know we had close to a foot here. But I can’t remember if it was with the front or after

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure about that up there, but this is more anomalous than anything we’ve seen recently in terms of how far the coldest air is pushed south in western Canada. Calgary could see their coldest weather in almost 20 years. 

2004?  yeah that's the last time Spokane has gone below -20

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, clipper_range said:

Seems to be more cold air being pushed into ocean. Imagine if there was an extra push to spin up something. Anything is possible. Worth keeping an eye on.

It is very possible. Watch around Vancuver island for any Rotation.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

One thing I've noticed looking at the models for last night and this morning is the mesoscale models are much more bearish on QPF than the operational. I wonder why that is the case. Seems like this system will have pretty good dynamics to it and the low is trending stronger. Anyone know why that might be the case?

I think this really will be an event where we won’t know. I think areas like west Clark county, Columbia and Washington counties will be the big winners with the right amount of cold and moisture without the wind. I think the system will be more on the juicy side as it interacts with the Arctic front

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

What date did the front come through? I know we had close to a foot here. But I can’t remember if it was with the front or after

The 27th

[Weiner Warrior]

Snow picked up a bit. Still hoping for a snow miracle.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Very light snow in convergence band here in Bellevue. Let’s hope the arctic boundary helps fire up the precip later this afternoon

Love that area,... you have a great view.   Must spectacular on a sunny day.

[TacomaWx]

Been steady light snow here for almost an hour just too warm to stick at 850’.