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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

Posted Images

0.04” now this morning. Enjoying these drizzly days. 

  • Rain 1

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Another day of wall to wall sunshine here. 

  • Sad 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Beautiful weather for some fall fishing yesterday. 

6AF20D37-793A-4448-9CA4-F06FA88E26EA.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful weather for some fall fishing yesterday. 

6AF20D37-793A-4448-9CA4-F06FA88E26EA.jpeg

Beautiful. Leaves already turning there.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Still deep green here. Not even a hint of color despite the coolest start to autumn in recent memory.

 

image.jpeg

 

image.jpeg

They don't usually start to turn there until late October, right?

Low. Solar.

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This past week at KLMT. Warmest start to October in over 20 years, and still getting lows in the 30's.

09/27: 77/33
09/28: 84/42
09/29: 86/37
09/30: 82/38
10/01: 87/36
10/02: 86/37
10/03: 85/38

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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21 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

This past week at KLMT. Warmest start to October in over 20 years, and still getting lows in the 30's.

09/27: 77/33
09/28: 84/42
09/29: 86/37
09/30: 82/38
10/01: 87/36
10/02: 86/37
10/03: 85/38

I do have to wonder if people over there use heat and AC in the same day.

Just combed through NWS Medford data and it looks like Alturas had a 61 degree diurnal on 10/1. 91/30 spread. No airmass replacement, just pure radiational cooling.

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28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GFS sucks.

00z EURO went downhill in the 8-10 day range too.

EPS still shows relatively cool zonal flow over us at day 10, but it appears to be a pattern where another Aleutian trough could probably pop up, pumping more mild ridging or SW flow over us.

Just doesn't feel like we're in for a meaningful pattern change to cool and active IMO.

 

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

00z EURO went downhill in the 8-10 day range too.

EPS still shows relatively cool zonal flow over us at day 10, but it appears to be a pattern where another Aleutian trough could probably pop up, pumping more mild ridging or SW flow over us. Just doesn't feel like we're in for a meaningful pattern change to cool and active IMO.

 

Seems like it'll be similar to the Sept. 23-26 pattern. Couple wet fronts slide through but the ridging stays locked in over the SW ready to pounce at a moment's notice.

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I do have to wonder if people over there use heat and AC in the same day.

Just combed through NWS Medford data and it looks like Alturas had a 61 degree diurnal on 10/1. 91/30 spread. No airmass replacement, just pure radiational cooling.

 

I bet some do! For a few hours around maybe 5am we have the heat run a few times, then turn it off and our windows are open from noon to midnight lol

  • Like 2

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I mean the frigid December/January is basically a done deal at this point.

Still won't rule out perhaps a few days of brief arctic air, like we had after the 2017 snowstorms. Then it just torches a week later. Didn't take long to see snow melt in K-Falls despite the near continuous storms that winter.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Can’t remember the last year he didn’t predict that. Let’s torchy October or no.

Thanks a lot.

You're right .  No chance it gets cold for the rest of this season.  Are you happy now?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I think it's safe to say the question of how big of a role solar activity plays in the big picture is going to come clear over the next few decades.  This solar min is proving to be incredible.  Almost a year since the official minimum and the sun is still dead.  Only 3 days of the past 45 have had any spots, and according to a number of metrics it's more dead now than it was a week ago.  We have needed a grand minimum to answer the question of effect of solar cycles on weather and we are now getting it.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thanks a lot.

You're right .  No chance it gets cold for the rest of this season.  Are you happy now?

Take it up with DoucheyDog, not me.

I tend to agree with you that a cooler and more active pattern now bodes better for later on.

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Looks like some cool and interesting October weather coming up.  I know some people don't care what I think, but that's the way it looks.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Yes.

You're hurting me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Man, Matt couldn’t have set that up better. 🤣

Hope you guys can work things out.  Try taking the nice guy route once in a while as opposed to that of the bruised, battered and bitter climate change warrior.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's safe to say the question of how big of a role solar activity plays in the big picture is going to come clear over the next few decades.  This solar min is proving to be incredible.  Almost a year since the official minimum and the sun is still dead.  Only 3 days of the past 45 have had any spots, and according to a number of metrics it's more dead now than it was a week ago.  We have needed a grand minimum to answer the question of effect of solar cycles on weather and we are now getting it.

Verdict so far.  We continue to roast!

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hope you guys can work things out.  Try taking the nice guy route once in a while as opposed to that of the bruised, battered and bitter climate change warrior.

You know a lot about the nice guy route :lol:

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Verdict so far.  We continue to roast!

Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable.

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Pretty obvious solar is totally irrelevant.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty obvious solar is totally irrelevant.

Recent solar max/near max winters in the last century include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1978-79, 1968-69, 1946-47, and 1936-37.

Like a who's who of heavy hitters!

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Recent solar max/near max winters in the last century include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1978-79, 1968-69, 1946-47, and 1936-37.

Like a who's who of heavy hitters!

So maybe it is relevant in the opposite way Jim posits it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable.

DEN did see their coldest high on record for so early last month.

Low. Solar.

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

DEN did see their coldest high on record for so early last month.

Confirmation bias confirmed!!!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Cloudy with a wet deck.

54 degrees. 
.01” so far on the day, .02” for the month, 42.28” for the year. 

Cloudy and my deck is almost dry.

59, .02” today, .02” for Oct and 44.79” for the year

 

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I'm liking where the ECMWF is trying to go toward mid month with the NE Pacific / GOA surface pressure setup.  That cutoff low way out there could easily throw up a nice GOA block.  Hopefully we can get some cold that will at least partially offset the recent warmth.

 

 

 

cold.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Has anyone figured out how to edit their sig since the software change?  No matter what I try I can't find the option to do that.  Same result with two different browsers.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing.

 

Well, that would be right over our region.

When the pattern flips, watch out.

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Has anyone figured out how to edit their sig since the software change?  No matter what I try I can't find the option to do that.  Same result with two different browsers.

Click on your user name at the top right of the screen, then click on "Account Settings" from the drop-down menu. A menu should appear on the left side of your screen. Click on "Signature."

To change your photo, click user name, then "Profile" and then the little icon underneath the photo itself. Took me ages to figure that one out.

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4 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

I'm calling it right now.

We will have frost on our pumpkins.

Frosty pumpkins, frozen turkeys and snow-buried civil rights leaders.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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37 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing.

 

Well, that would be right over our region.

When the pattern flips, watch out.

I suppose that is true.

At any rate, Joe Bastardi doesn't know what he's talking about (in general).

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