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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
10/1/20 11:09 PM 2020 Spring/Summer wrap-up Summary
Summer 2020 is in the books! Looking back compared to 2019 did we have cooler Spring and Summer? or not.
 
Let's take a closer look at the 6 month period from April to September at the number of 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 100 degree days compared to last year and see what differences we may find.
 

Portland Airport

  • APRIL
40° Days: 2
50° Days: 3
60° Days: 15
70° Days: 10
Maximum Temp: April 17th, 76°
Minimum High Temp: April 1st & 3rd, 49°
Minimum Temp: April 13th, 37°
Average High Temp: 64°
Average Low Temp:: 45°
 
  • MAY
50° Days: 4
60° Days: 16
70° Days: 5
80° Days: 5
90° Days: 1
Maximum Temp: May 28th, 91°
Minimum High Temp: May 2nd, 3rd & 14th, 58°
Minimum Temp: May 4th, 39°
Average High Temp: 69°
Average Low Temp: 52°
 
  • JUNE
50° Days: 2
60° Days: 9
70° Days: 13
80° Days: 5
90° Days: 1
Maximum Temp: June 23rd, 91°
Minimum High Temp: June 5th, 56°
Minimum Temp: June 7th, 49°
Average High Temp: 72°
Average Low Temp: 56°
 
  • JULY
60° Days: 3
70° Days: 11
80° Days: 12
90° Days: 5
Maximum Temp: July 26th, 99°
Minimum High Temp: July 1st, 65°
Minimum Temp: July 13th & 25th, 55°
Average High Temp: 81°
Average Low Temp: 59°
 
  • AUGUST
70° Days: 11
80° Days: 16
90° Days: 3
Maximum Temp: August 15th, 98°
Minimum High Temp: August 6th, 72°
Minimum Temp: August 30th, 51°
Average High Temp: 82°
Average Low Temp: 60°
 
  • SEPTEMBER
60° Days: 6
70° Days: 12
80° Days: 9
90° Days: 3
Maximum Temp: September 3rd, 94°
Minimum High Temp: August 13th & 25th, 63°
Minimum Temp: September 13th, 51°
Average High Temp: 77°
Average Low Temp: 59°
 
2020 High Temps (April - September)

SUMMARY

40° Days: 2
50° Days: 9
60° Days: 49
70° Days: 62
80° Days: 47
90° Days: 13
100° Days: 0
Maximum Temp: July 26th, 99°
Minimum High Temp: April 1st & 3rd, 49°
Minimum Temp: April 13th, 37°
Average High Temp: 74°
Average Low Temp: 55°
----------------------------------------------
2019
  • APRIL
50° Days: 11
60° Days: 16
70° Days: 3
Maximum Temp: April 18th, 74°
Minimum High Temp: April 14th, 52°
Minimum Temp: April 28th, 38°
Average High Temp: 63°
Average Low Temp: 47°
 
  • MAY
50° Days: 1
60° Days: 11
70° Days: 12
80° Days: 7
Maximum Temp: May 10th, 89°
Minimum High Temp: May 25th, 57°
Minimum Temp: May 3rd, 37°
Average High Temp: 73°
Average Low Temp: 52°
 
  • JUNE
60° Days: 6
70° Days: 12
80° Days: 10
90° Days: 2
Maximum Temp: June 12th, 98°
Minimum High Temp: June 7th, 60°
Minimum Temp: June 4th, 50°
Average High Temp: 77°
Average Low Temp: 55°
 
  • JULY
60° Days: 2
70° Days: 11
80° Days: 15
90° Days: 3
Maximum Temp: July 26th, 91°91°
Minimum High Temp: July 2nd & 6th, 67°
Minimum Temp: July 7th, 52°
Average High Temp: 81°
Average Low Temp: 60°
 
  • AUGUST
70° Days: 11
80° Days: 14
90° Days: 6
100° Days: 0
Maximum Temp: August 27th & 28th, 98°
Minimum High Temp: August 8th & 17th, 71°
Minimum Temp: August 22nd, 55°
Average High Temp: 83°
Average Low Temp: 61°
 
  • SEPTEMBER
50° Days: 1
60° Days: 13
70° Days: 9
80° Days: 7
Maximum Temp: September 5th, 88°
Minimum High Temp: September 29th, 52°
Minimum Temp: September 30th, 39°
Average High Temp: 72°
Average Low Temp: 57°
 
2019 High Temps (April - September)

SUMMARY

50° Days: 13
60° Days: 48
70° Days: 58
80° Days: 53
90° Days: 11
100° Days: 0
Maximum Temp: June 12th, 98°
Minimum High Temp: April 14th & September 29th, 52°
Minimum Temp: May 3rd, 37°
Average High Temp: 75°
Average Low Temp: 55°

You missed 100 at PDX on both 7/26 and 7/27 this year.

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18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

November? NOVEMBER? Why wait until then? We may be doing so by the 2nd week of October. C'MON!!!!

If we get any remotely interesting weather in October our winter is DOOMED.

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Heh... According to WUnderground History we only hit 99, 98 .... 🤷‍♂️

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/or/portland/KPDX/date/2020-7

Wunderground is notoriously bad with that stuff, unfortunately. They will often report the highest hourly reading as the daily high and ignore inter-hourly readings. Same goes for low temps.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wunderground is notoriously bad with that stuff, unfortunately. They will often report the highest hourly reading as the daily high and ignore inter-hourly readings. Same goes for low temps.

🤣 That's outstanding. *Deletes multiple posts from 2018-2020....

 

Which website again is it that's more accurate?

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Heh... According to WUnderground History we only hit 99, 98 .... 🤷‍♂️

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/or/portland/KPDX/date/2020-7

 

These are official NWS readings (of course this exists for every NWS station):

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pqr

The official XM-ACIS website gives you even more tools such as time graphs, linear regression, etc.

@DJ Droppin Just found by accident that you can tag specific users now.

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

These are official NWS readings (of course this exists for every NWS station):

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=pqr

The official XM-ACIS website gives you even more tools such as time graphs, linear regression, etc.

@DJ Droppin Just found by accident that you can tag specific users now.

@Omegaraptor Whyyyy didn't I know about this sooner. Ahhhhhh Lol. Thanks I appreciate it. This site is far better.

 

@iFred The forum is far better now. The server is lightning fast. I like all of the emojis we can select and the overall layout, that we can add images much easier too. Much improved.

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Down to 53F on this pleasant night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Low of 52 this morning. Very foggy again maybe even slightly thicker than yesterday. Can just barely see across the street. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Looks like we got down to 50F.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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10 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why mow 2 days in a row?

I have three different areas to mow so I sometimes will only do one or two parts one day and the rest the next.  I left the “back” portion till Tuesday this week.  53 after another warm low of 51.

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I have to have someone out there with me while I mow but it's at least something that helps me feel independent.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Beautiful sunny morning here.   The smoke seems to be mostly gone... both aloft and at the surface.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How's our nina looking?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How's our nina looking?

Pretty healthy Nina... but the PDO seems to be rising.      This looks like a +PDO developing now.

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty healthy Nina... but the PDO seems to be rising.      This looks like a +PDO developing now.

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Except for the warm temps off the coast, which hopefully will change when we get into Fall weather, the pdo still looks pretty negative.  Moderate to strong Nina, and warm anomalies off of Asia.

image.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Except for the warm temps off the coast, which hopefully will change when we get into Fall weather, the pdo still looks pretty negative.  Moderate to strong Nina, and warm anomalies off of Asia.

image.png

 

 

 

Yes... I said developing.    The 7-day change also shows a rising PDO:

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

12z GFS is utter garbage with the “pattern change”

Yeah looks like the first half of the month will be solidly dry. I’m betting the rain next weekend will be pushed into the following week. It’ll be alright though the firehose will turn on eventually...probably late this month. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah looks like the first half of the month will be solidly dry. I’m betting the rain next weekend will be pushed into the following week. It’ll be alright though the firehose will turn on eventually...probably late this month. 

No ones looking for a “firehose” per we. Just a reasonably interesting fall pattern. 

Another several days of foggy mornings and yellow afternoon skies is going to get pretty stale.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

No ones looking for a “firehose” per we. Just a reasonably interesting fall pattern. 

Another several days of foggy mornings and yellow afternoon skies is going to get pretty stale.

Boring fall's equal good winters. I have zero scientific proof to back me up.

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Due for a regionally good Dec-Jan. It's gotta happen again eventually. I have a good feeling it'll be this year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The 06z GFS was very wet. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Pretty much our top producing month these days! I would take a February 2019 repeat! 

February has been a workhorse in recent years. I have no complaints. January owes us dearly. We are due for some serious cold in January. 1979 was the last time that Spokane set a record low in January.

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Up to 70F and smoky.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I need this fog to lift for my hot air balloon ride. It should burn soon tho....

Just about gone.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Sky is much clearer and nicer today. All of the fog burned off 2 hours ago and now we have some nice bright sunshine.

Sky still looks pretty dirty up here.

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Ben Noll has interesting tweets, even though he forecasts for the Hudson Valley (and tweets from New Zealand).

A look at predicted global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET "superblend"
 

Image

He says the "superblend" performed pretty well last year.

Both the ECMWF and the UKMET show February as the most likely for Western WA/OR to get more snow and January to get less snow.   This forecast was from sometime in September, and he says he updates it once per month.

He also tweeted about the Canadian SIPS model, which I posted about yesterday:

New CanSIPS: a 25-30% chance for below average winter temps in the northern & eastern U.S.
 
Bar chart
In other words, average to above average temps are more likely.
 
Purple square
contour = areas where BELOW AVERAGE temps are the MOST LIKELY (>33.3%) outcome...
 
Up pointing backhand index

includes Ohio Valley, Northwest

Image

 

 

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Hazy on flight simulator here too. They are pretty accurate with the weather on a large-scale.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Fog has cleared here except for directly over the water in a few spots. Up to 64...1 degree shy of yesterdays high so should be on track for upper 60s later this afternoon. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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