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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

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11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Hell of a windstorm Friday night on the 12z GFS and WRF.

 

 

slp.117.0000.gif

Looks like a 20mb PDX BLI gradient roughly. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fwiw, I like what I’m seeing in the evolution of the momentum budget going forward. More analogous to the blockier subset of -ENSO years rolled forward.

Those years would be?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

My generator is ready! 

20mb gradient is a big one. I think the 12/20/18 windstorm was also a 20mb gradient as well. 

  • Windy 1

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fwiw, I like what I’m seeing in the evolution of the momentum budget going forward. More analogous to the blockier subset of -ENSO years rolled forward.

As epic as the mountain forecasts look, it’s good that we’re getting this tight PV / +AO phase over with in November instead of midwinter.

As soon as the calendar flips to December and that PV loosens up a bit...

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Meanwhile down south here it’s only 40 degrees currently at noon. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a feeling Shari’s in Winthrop will need a much longer measuring device this season! 

782539DC-AB35-40F1-A736-DDED48555930.jpeg

Also will need a thermometer that reads lower than -60.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

End of the past few GFS runs have that spooky "oh something is going to happen" feel. Cold building in Alaska, over and over and over again.

I miss the "Siberian Express" cold blasts that we got in the 80's. Straight from Siberia, right through Alaska, and down to the PNW. Those were memorable. Cold in Alaska can be good for us as well.

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a feeling Shari’s in Winthrop will need a much longer measuring device this season! 

782539DC-AB35-40F1-A736-DDED48555930.jpeg

I would expect them to get higher than normal snowfall this year, but Winthrop actually doesn't get as much snow as you would think.  Only because it is fairly dry there.  But it is cold enough where the snow accumulates more there than other areas that actually get more snow. Mazama, about 20 minutes away, gets about 50% more snow than Winthrop.  I get more snow than Winthrop, but also a bit more winter rain too.  Definitely the quality of snow in Winthrop is really good. 

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24 minutes ago, iFred said:

End of the past few GFS runs have that spooky "oh something is going to happen" feel. Cold building in Alaska, over and over and over again.

Something brewing?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Up to 45F in Springfield so we might hit 50F again. Will still finish with a respectable, possible double-digit negative departure tho.

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

IS THE EPS ONBOARD??

1606219200-4QQhXFNV3EY.png

Last frame on the EC mean FWIW.

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  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 45F in Springfield so we might hit 50F again. Will still finish with a respectable, possible double-digit negative departure tho.

You realize average is like 55 still right?

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I have not even been paying attention to the models for the last week given all the other news happening.   And I have not been posting on the weather side much.   And of course I am big fan of colder air aloft during the cold season.   Warm just means very wet.  I don't see anything crazy on the EPS.    There is not much to report.   But hey... Jesse wants to stir it up... no surprise there!   The last frame of the EPS today at 15 days out is why I have not been posting about it for a weeks.  Makes sense.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1604923200-1604923200-1606219200-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I would expect them to get higher than normal snowfall this year, but Winthrop actually doesn't get as much snow as you would think.  Only because it is fairly dry there.  But it is cold enough where the snow accumulates more there than other areas that actually get more snow. Mazama, about 20 minutes away, gets about 50% more snow than Winthrop.  I get more snow than Winthrop, but also a bit more winter rain too.  Definitely the quality of snow in Winthrop is really good. 

Just checked and Winthrop gets about 70"/year of snow. Snowy, but not insanely so. Annual precip is only 14"/year.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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55 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Still just 41 at PDX. Let’s see if they can do it.

Although it’s not hard for me to picture a late evening high as things mix out a bit.

I'm trying to stop okay. 

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18z GFS is further South with Friday night's windstorm and brings the low across the tip of the Olympic Peninsula and through about Skagit County. Would be a big windstorm for the Seattle area.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

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  • Windy 4
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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z GFS is further South with Friday night's windstorm and brings the low across the tip of the Olympic Peninsula and through about Skagit County. Would be a big windstorm for the Seattle area.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

If it keeps trending south perhaps a windstorm could be replaced by a snowstorm! (If there was enough cold air to draw down) 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just checked and Winthrop gets about 70"/year of snow. Snowy, but not insanely so. Annual precip is only 14"/year.

Yes.  Still way more than most people though.  I get more than that, but would trade the extra 24 inches I get for colder weather and more consistent snow quality.  No wonder why that area has such great cross country skiing.

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Jay Albrecet, AKA JAYA in our forums, has some good tweets about the possibility of coastal flooding in WA.

4. Importantly, let's look at tides. Tides at Westport on Saturday morning are as high as they are all November! #wawx #orwx #flooding
 
 

Image

 

Jay Albrecht Retweeted

NWWashingtonWX

@wx_washington

·

3h

5. What causes salt water flooding on the coast? Combination of 1) Low atmospheric pressure, 2) tides, 3) Ekman transport and 4) wave setup. When they align, watch out! It is still too early to call, but be watching closely! #wawx #orwx #flooding

3

5

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Ekman transport. Sounds like something Phil would make up.

I thought that everyone knew that Ekman transport is the net motion of fluid as the result of a balance between Coriolis and turbulent drag forces.

Actually, I looked it up, quite complicated, but apparently it leads to upwelling.

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Don't know if EUG is going to make it to 50.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wow what a storm train we get going on the GFS!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Amazing to see this!
 

Northern Oregon Cascades-Cascades in Lane County-
South Washington Cascades-
Including the cities of Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass,
McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge, Willamette Pass,
Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center, Mount St. Helens,
and Wind River Valley
238 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches
  for elevations above 3000 feet.

* WHERE...In Washington, South Washington Cascades. In Oregon,
  Northern Oregon Cascades and Cascades in Lane County.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected to occur
  early Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
  • Like 2
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don't know if EUG is going to make it to 50.

Yup, currently 45F in Springfield so that would be nice.

  • Excited 1
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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And...WB is down...

  • Angry 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

And look for the PDX radar to go down on Friday night! 

And whatever shite one we have down here too. They'll make sure to go down simultaneously.

  • Confused 1
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1604923200-qCj4pvlbLIQ.png

This was from the Morning JoeFS. Best of luck!

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  • Snow 2

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Times like this where I really would love to get a PWS and get a proper reading from Springfield. Lots to save up for but sports betting has turned out to be more lucrative than I imagined. Thanks Oregon Lottery...now make college betting legal pls.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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