Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z EPS members show the following chances for snow... KBLI: 84% (Avg: 1 inch) KPAE: 84% (Avg: 1.25 inch) KSEA: 76% (Avg: .5 inch) KPLU: 96% (Avg: 2 inch) KOLM: 16% (Avg: .1 inch) What does it say for Esquimalt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: RGEM also a touch north. I'm not worried yet, but will wait till the GFS and euro to cast my judgement. These things always seem to take a last minute jog north, although most models have moved toward what the GFS has been showing. It's usually best to be just to the north of where the best activity is shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said: These things always seem to take a last minute jog north, although most models have moved toward what the GFS has been showing. It's usually best to be just to the north of where the best activity is shown. Yeah I think we’re in a pretty good spot here in Vic. Environment Canada doesn’t seem to think so but honestly their endorsement could be the kiss of death lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Norte Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 A notch or two north doesn’t matter as much as how much cold air filters in behind the system once it passes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Definitely a last minute slight North trend. May not make a huge difference though because it's only in the backwash behind the low that has the chance of snow. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Heavy snow for the central Sound 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Beauty. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Definitely a last minute slight North trend. May not make a huge difference though because it's only in the backwash behind the low that has the chance of snow. Yeah, it matters more up here than it does down there. The backwash will cover a much larger geographic area and it would take a very large jump north to miss out on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 The 0C isotherm is closer to the surface in this N-S cross section. Should bode well in terms of accumulation if you've got a couple hundred feet of elevation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Really monumental rain today as we approach 3 inches towards the end. Reminds me a little bit of December 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Beauty of a c-zone signature on the HDRPS this afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 When would NWS post a WWA or even a WSW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, El_Nina said: Really monumental rain today as we approach 3 inches towards the end. Reminds me a little bit of December 2015. And its been dry here all day... win-win! 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Christensen87 said: When would NWS post a WWA or even a WSW? During the event 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, MossMan said: If the 18zzzz’s still have me in the blue I am going to go ahead and stage my plow and get the snow shovel out of the shed. Currently drizzling and 46. .02” so far on the day. You had better get to staging that thing. 18Z has you and I both in the pinkish 6"+ area. I'd hate for that low to go much farther north though since the area of backwash snow will shrink for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 There is talk about how this event looks very similar to the December 1974 event which led me to read about it in a paper by Ferber et al in 1993. Some of the highlights include significant snowfall that occurred where strong diabatic cooling occurred due to melting. Precip fell as rain where it was light and snow where precipitation was heavy. Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s across the Puget Sound. 850s were only marginal for snow. Nearly 10 inches of snow fell in Seattle. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, wxmet said: There is talk about how this event looks very similar to the December 1974 event which led me to read about it in a paper by Ferber et al in 1993. Some of the highlights include significant snowfall that occurred where strong adiabatic cooling due occurred due to melting. Precip fell as rain where it was light and snow where precipitation was heavy. Temperatures where in the low to mid 30s across the Puget Sound. 850s were only marginal for snow. Nearly 10 inches of snow fell in Seattle. Some very intriguing similarities. I'm a little bit more excited for this now that we're within 24 hours. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: When would NWS post a WWA or even a WSW? Monday night. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, wxmet said: There is talk about how this event looks very similar to the December 1974 event which led me to read about it in a paper by Ferber et al in 1993. Some of the highlights include significant snowfall that occurred where strong diabatic cooling occurred due to melting. Precip fell as rain where it was light and snow where precipitation was heavy. Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s across the Puget Sound. 850s were only marginal for snow. Nearly 10 inches of snow fell in Seattle. Sounds like jan 2010(11?) here. I don’t think it ever dropped below 33 and we had about a foot of snow in scappoose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Timmy said: Sounds like jan 2010(11?) here. I don’t think it ever dropped below 33 and we had about a foot of snow in scappoose. I remember that event.....I wasn't there but my brother was. 35-39 degree rain in PDX metro that just wouldn't change over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, wxmet said: Heavy snow for the central Sound Rain for me. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Timmy said: Sounds like jan 2010(11?) here. I don’t think it ever dropped below 33 and we had about a foot of snow in scappoose. 12 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Must be a lot of debate happening at NWS Seattle. I'm in North Bend and they still have no mention of snow in the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Rain for me. "Precip fell as rain where it was light and snow where precipitation was heavy" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Not a great GFS run but not a torch. Just can’t get legit cold to dig toward the pnw this year. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 31 minutes ago, Acer said: You had better get to staging that thing. 18Z has you and I both in the pinkish 6"+ area. I'd hate for that low to go much farther north though since the area of backwash snow will shrink for us. It does? I need to take a look! Anyway the damage is done, equipment is staged, and my wife just found out. 4 2 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 It has almost stopped raining here :0 Just shy of 2” in the last 24 hours. Also at my current low for the day at 48 degrees. Should get warmer and wetter again this evening as the next wave moves in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, MossMan said: It does? I need to take a look! Anyway the damage is done, equipment is staged, and my wife just found out. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not a great GFS run but not a torch. Just can’t get legit cold to dig toward the pnw this year. It actually has a number of chilly interludes though. All in all the Pacific looks to be slowing down with above normal heights showing up a good part of the time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: It has almost stopped raining here :0 Just shy of 2” in the last 24 hours. Also at my current low for the day at 48 degrees. Should get warmer and wetter again this evening as the next wave moves in. All done here with 2.83" since 11pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Can somebody post the zoomed in snow map from the 18z? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 We shall soon see if the 18z ECMWF gets back to showing more snow or not. The 18z GFS was pretty impressive for this area. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We shall soon see if the 18z ECMWF gets back to showing more snow or not. The 18z GFS was pretty impressive for this area. Can you post it pls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Can somebody post the zoomed in snow map from the 18z? Here it is. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Phil said: Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture. The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them. I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different. How long after a SSW event does it normally take the models to pick up on it's effects? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 NWS: In regards to the snow potential along the Puget Sound and into the Cascade Foothills, there is considerable uncertainty. Overall, the primary concern is the fact that this setup doesn`t suggest much wintry precipitation in the area, not to mention the lack of cold air in place with temperatures today through tonight in the 40s to low 50s. Possibly the biggest piece of the puzzle for snow potential in the Puget Sound will be the extent dynamic cooling during the heaviest precipitation on Monday afternoon. HRRR, 3K NAM, and other hires models have a changeover to a brief heavy thump of snow Monday afternoon across areas of the Puget Sound as cold air filters in. If this does occur, the primary concerns in regards to impacts would most likely be a quick reduction in visibility with a heavy, wet rain/snow mix. The current thinking regarding any accumulations would be trace amounts on grassy surfaces (at best) near the water, with less than an inch for the Cascade Foothills (or snow levels above 700-1000 feet). Timing of this would be focused on 10AM-2PM north of King County, mainly late afternoon into the evening south of this area. However, it is also possible guidance is overdoing the extent of cooling and a cold rain will be the main focus for most of the area on Monday. Of course, it is also possible, albeit not expected, that the snow event plays out as shown on shorter range guidance. The current thinking though is that significant accumulations aren`t expected for the Puget Sound area at this time, though monitor the forecasts through tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 The sudden temperature plunge the models are showing for King and Pierce Counties tomorrow afternoon makes a lot of sense when you consider there will be cold air dammed up along the north slopes of the Olympics that will plunge down in the backwash behind the low. There will likely be convergence involved also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 18 hours ago, BLI snowman said: Wonder whatever happened to Farmboy? Took of one Tesla's experimental rockets to Mercury when he realized this planet is 70% water and only has an average surface temp of 57F 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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