Meatyorologist Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Learned a few neat things here so far this winter: 1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW. It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd. 4 1 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Learned a few neat things here so far this winter: 1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW. It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd. Pretty much sums up this place. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 59 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Now I need you guys to hurry up and tell me that your going to be getting the good's shortly. If your getting hammered that almost always means the Jet is to the south and over my house. Other than a really good lake effect snow band in early Nov this winter has been super lame. Could also have another blast like Feb 89 or Dec 90 that sends the Arctic air down into CA. Would be nice to see some -30s at Boca Reservoir and -20s across NE CA and NW NV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lots of cold air nearby 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Phil said: 18z GFS splits the vortex D10-11 now. Timing moved way up. Does a vortex split favour arctic air into the PNW more so than a displacement? My understanding is that a displacement is a wave-1 and a split is a wave-2. Correct me if I'm wrong? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 27/37 for the day. Now 36°F, so probably have reached the high for the day. Coldest max (and min) temps yet of the season, second sub-40°F day in a row. Ground is still white. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 People are cancelling winter and they don’t even remember that we are getting crazy model runs on Christmas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Learned a few neat things here so far this winter: 1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW. It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd. Well said. Couldn't have said better myself. I feel like us weather enthusiasts are just like the emotional sports fans who declare a loss when their team is down 1-0 in the first period. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 SPV dipole emerges just as favorable tropical forcings begin to return. 18z was the warmest yet for the SSW event, IIRC. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hey does anyone know if there was a SSW event in the 1999-00 bust? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: SPV dipole emerges just as favorable tropical forcings begin to return. 18z was the warmest yet for the SSW event, IIRC. Okay can somebody help explain tropical forcing and which types are favourable for the PNW seeing arctic air? Is it connected with the MJO? Does anyone have resources that I can read through and learn about it? Thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hopefully this calms the Pacific a bit... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 The Drunkle is as sober as a judge tonight. Only one member on the ensembles goes below -5 850's and that is near the end and is only down to -7. Not complaining though. I've got snow on the ground and 35F. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 The snow is hanging on pretty well here in the shade. High of 38 so far at the airport and it's already down to 35 there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Learned a few neat things here so far this winter: 1. Models are never accurate in the LR unless they show warmth. Then it's time to plant the Tulips! 2. It's okay to cancel winter when it's a few weeks old. In a -ENSO/+QBO regime. With an impending SSW. It's not even Christmas y'all. Seeing a lot of doomposting from the "patience" and "wasn't even expecting anything until late January" crowd. It's funny, 10 years ago people were complaining about front-loaded winters. Now it's back-loaded winters. Hopefully we're starting a mid-loaded stretch... 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: 18z GFS splits the vortex D10-11 now. Timing moved way up. Maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, tenochtitlan said: The snow is hanging on pretty well here in the shade. High of 38 so far at the airport and it's already down to 35 there. Already down to 33°F here. This little snow event has definitely overperformed with respect to my expectations. I was expecting the snow to be long gone by now. Hopefully just a warning shot for something more significant and regionally widespread in January! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Okay can somebody help explain tropical forcing and which types are favourable for the PNW seeing arctic air? Is it connected with the MJO? Does anyone have resources that I can read through and learn about it? Thanks. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden–Julian_oscillation 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden–Julian_oscillation Thanks so much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 32°F. The re-re-refreeze begins. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Depressing day. Only a 39/34 spread. Low clouds all day long. Zero sunshine. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, dolt said: Depressing day. Only a 39/34 spread. Low clouds all day long. Zero sunshine. Is this your sub-40°F high for the season, or did Eugene reach that milestone already? Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Only one patch of fog remained most of the day in Clark County...my house was pretty much right under it. Finally cleared around 2 PM. High of 39.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Had a high of 38. Currently 33. Lost a little more snow but I am now locked in for a least a white Christmas Eve! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Is this your sub-40°F high for the season, or did Eugene reach that milestone already? I think we might have had one in November. Eugene is the inversion capitol of the western PNW. We typically get several due to this, but they've been a bit rarer lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Back down to 31 after a high of 36. A little bit of melt but the ground is still mostly white. So much for the snow being gone by the time my son gets home LOL! Was just watching the weather on Q13 and they were showing snow for the north interior/up by the border Saturday morning, even made specific mention of it. White boxing day? Doesn't have the same ring as "white Christmas" but I won't complain if it pans out. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 One thing that I have noticed in our “declining chilly winters” is that we seem to be having (well my area anyway) more white week of Christmas or actual Christmas Eve/Day. I might be missing some from my early years (late 70’s-early 80’s) but I can only recall 1990, 1996, 1998...But then it started becoming more frequent the last several years...2008, 2013, 15, 16, 17, 20! Though of course my favorites are 1990 and 2008 with heavy snow falling at daybreak on Christmas morning. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, dolt said: Depressing day. Only a 39/34 spread. Low clouds all day long. Zero sunshine. Made it to 40F on the Springfield stations so still awaiting our first sub-40F high of the meteorological winter on the east side of town. Airport tends to be colder than here. 40/34 on the day for our first negative temp departure since Dec 5. Absolutely bush league. Edit: was looking at the past whole 24 hours not just today...goddammit!! I can't figure this shitt out it's frustrating AF! We ended up at just 37F here so a 37/34 day. First sub-40F high of our winter. Much nicer than the past couple weeks. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 59 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Only one patch of fog remained most of the day in Clark County...my house was pretty much right under it. Finally cleared around 2 PM. High of 39.5. Lucky you. Eugene socked in 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: One thing that I have noticed in our “declining chilly winters” is that we seem to be having (well my area anyway) more white week of Christmas or actual Christmas Eve/Day. I might be missing some from my early years (late 70’s-early 80’s) but I can only recall 1990, 1996, 1998...But then it started becoming more frequent the last several years...2008, 2013, 15, 16, 17, 20! Though of course my favorites are 1990 and 2008 with heavy snow falling at daybreak on Christmas morning. Our winters have split in two, just like the polar vortex. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: So much for the snow being gone by the time my son gets home LOL! Yeah, that prediction of mine didn’t pan out. Yesterday, Bellingham’s high temperature was actually colder than Spokane’s! Just goes to show what increased albedo from snow cover can do. This little snow event has definitely overperformed compared to what I was expecting. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Already down to 30 degrees...Going to be a chilly night! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 FINALLY! The EPS shows the PNA going minus in early January with a deeply tanked NAO. The control has both very tanked. Maybe this is the beginning of something. Meanwhile....I'm enjoying the chilly weather. 42 / 30 yesterday and 43 / 28 today after the little bit of snow the other day. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: FINALLY! The EPS shows the PNA going minus in early January with a deeply tanked NAO. The control has both very tanked. Maybe this is the beginning of something. Meanwhile....I'm enjoying the chilly weather. 42 / 30 yesterday and 43 / 28 today after the little bit of snow the other day. Everyone is saying late January...My gut is telling me that I will need to have a full tank of fuel in my mower plow by the second week of January at the latest...Possibly sooner. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Everyone is saying late January...My gut is telling me that I will need to have a full tank of fuel in my mower plow by the second week of January at the latest...Possibly sooner. It certainly could be sooner. The -NAO all of the models are showing in early Jan is insane. Coupled with a -PNA that rapidly forces a deep trough over the NW. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 Again, worth noting that late January hasn't delivered anything at all since 2009. And no significant arctic air since 1996. Pretty noteworthy given that it's historically been pretty close to the heart of our winter action. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Again, worth noting that late January hasn't delivered anything at all since 2009. And no significant arctic air since 1996. Pretty noteworthy given that it's historically been pretty close to the heart of our winter action. I think it would be a huge deal if it can deliver this winter. Might signal some kind of a realignment. As you say that period used to deliver some really incredible stuff in the not too distant past. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, MossMan said: Everyone is saying late January...My gut is telling me that I will need to have a full tank of fuel in my mower plow by the second week of January at the latest...Possibly sooner. I agree second week of January looks very possible! Things are starting to ramp up quickly in the upper atmosphere towards a much colder / snowier pattern sooner than later 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwonder said: I agree second week of January looks very possible! Things are starting to ramp up quickly in the upper atmosphere towards a much colder / snowier pattern sooner than later Do you have any specifics beyond what has been discussed? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 24, 2020 Report Share Posted December 24, 2020 42/28 currently 36 and still a bit of white out.....nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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