snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. Big change from previous runs. Really good news. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. Woah that's pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Man alive, I just have to believe that we're going to get hit by something. All of a sudden, 4 days out, all the models are going to agree on some serious cold or a blowtorch or something. This volatility is just insane. Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Woah that's pretty good! Has to be transitory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The EPS doesn't agree with the Op's idea of having the Alaskan vortex drift off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at 180 hours... No doubt it's trending toward spreading the cold out across the north instead of taking all of it east. We still have a shot at something good. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. Do you have the surface temperature anomalies? That looks even better than the OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that. 2 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that. Thanks. Never noticed this said 'run to run delta'. Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Amazing how the evolution on the 12z ECMWF suite of models bears no resemblance to the 0z. This is crazy. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that. I thought it looked weird. Nice trend though. Another step like that and we're cold here. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12Z EPS at day 10... not too inspiring. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The models trying to come to an agreement 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2/14 was a waste up here other than some ice on Lake Goodwin and some slush later on that lasted a few hours. No thanks. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at day 10... not too inspiring. vs. 24 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Anyone else been noticing this model volatility? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: vs. 24 hours ago... Yeah... really bad trend on the EPS. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 I guess it's important to explicitly say what the map shows. But this Gif shows the run to run change from day 3-8. You can clearly see a western shift during the mid range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: FYI for anyone not aware, those colors show the change in heights from the last run, not the anomaly from normal like you'd usually see on a map like that. Ok thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: vs. 24 hours ago... The east cold deserves the cold. They haven't had snow in five hours. We gotta wait our turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Let’s hope the 18z GFS can hold. Take it one model run at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Matt is also not onboard. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Anyone else been noticing this model volatility? Not familiar with that word. Vitality? Validity? What are you getting at? Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: vs. 24 hours ago... I'm sure it's just spread and noise. We all know things will look totally different in 24 hours....or less. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: I guess it's important to explicitly say what the map shows. But this Gif shows the run to run change from day 3-8. You can clearly see a western shift during the mid range. Important to monitor to anticipate any future changes in the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Bet the Mets are happy they don’t have to forecast beyond 5 days. Hair pull inducing pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt is also not onboard. This is kind of fun. Such potential and we have no idea what will really happen even a week out. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: This is kind of fun. Such potential and we have no idea what will really happen even a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Meanwhile...it's actually kind of chilly today. This will be day number 19 in a row with sub 50 degree highs here now. We dodged the bullet the last few days thanks to no wind to mix out the cooler air. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 This model craziness is almost as crazy as my gf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 omg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 (Very) light reading on February 1916 in Seattle. https://www.historylink.org/File/2872 "Snow began falling on the morning of January 31, and continued unabated until more than three feet had accumulated on level land. Schools closed, streetcars halted in their tracks, and the Humane Society spread the alarm to protect domestic animals and wildlife. At 3:13 p.m. on February 2, 1916, after two days of heavy snow, the ornate dome of St. James Cathedral, at 9th Avenue and Marion Street on First Hill, crashed 120 feet into the nave below. Miraculously, no one was injured by falling debris and 15 tons of wet snow." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 “Wet” snow. Next... 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: “Wet” snow. Next... I agree! Dry snow is much nicer! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Lower Yates Street. Victoria 1916 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Interestingly, as I have abandoned the negativity, Tim has picked up the mantle. Thank you, someone has to do it. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interestingly, as I have abandoned the negativity, Tim has picked up the mantle. Thank you, someone has to do it. Wait 5 minutes! The pattern seems too messy to me... it could work out but I am not feeling it yet. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just drove through snow In Matlock, Mason county, snowing down to 400 feet outskirts of Shelton towards the Olympics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 So we are going to have a February 1916 redux...Yay!! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Wait 5 minutes! The pattern seems too messy to me... it could work out but I am not feeling it yet. Just expect incoming fire from Jesse at any time. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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