Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 HEAVY RAIN! 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: HEAVY RAIN! CONFLICTING REPORTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: First ever 39 degree blizzard for me!! Too bad it's all we really have to look forward to the next 7 days or more.......I am still holding out for a snowy box of chocolates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I THINK WE SHOULD GO TO ALL CAPS FOR THE REST OF THE WINTER. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 YES I AGREE!! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Parker wants to know how long until summer. I told him the sun angles are almost there brother 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 VALENTINE'S DAY SNOWSTORM IS HAPPENING!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Too bad it's all we really have to look forward to the next 7 days or more.......I am still holding out for a snowy box of chocolates. I’m only quoting this post so Dolt can see it! 1 1 1 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Was all snow here for about 15 minutes. Temp is 34 degrees. 2 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Pretty vigorous little trough moving in. Central Oregon Daily News is calling for 3-4 inches in Bend, 0-1 for Redmond up through Culver....Santiam Pass is forecast to get over 12". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Up to 0.42” on the day. Quite a few bands of heavy rain moving through today. Didn’t see any snowflakes today but wouldn’t be surprised if we did later on under any heavy showers. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Jesse said: It can be frustrating. There was a point where I was pretty “onboard” with something at least fairly interesting for the last half of January. Was nice to see some lowland spots get snow on the 26th but overall the most the big pattern change did was keep us from scoring another top tier warm month. Which was great and all but it would have been fun to get a little more out of a -PNA period directly following some major warm first half of the winter karma. Plus a La Niña with a -QBO. All the while the teleconnections were mostly negative as well. I hardly believe in all of that stuff considering some of our greatest winters have come from the not so great indicators. Is what it is, but I firmly believe that, “ those winters can’t happen anymore” is pure bull$hit. Some of our recent winters have proved that. Expectations are too high around here sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Pretty vigorous little trough moving in. Central Oregon Daily News is calling for 3-4 inches in Bend, 0-1 for Redmond up through Culver....Santiam Pass is forecast to get over 12". Central Oregon Daily News? Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Central Oregon Daily News? Just one of the news stations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Plus a La Niña with a -QBO. All the while the teleconnections were mostly negative as well. I hardly believe in all of that stuff considering some of our greatest winters have come from the not so great indicators. Is what it is, but I firmly believe that, “ those winters can’t happen anymore” is pure bull$hit. Some of our recent winters have proved that. Expectations are too high around here sometimes. The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year. Does not seem to mean much though. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year. Does not seem to mean much though. I'm really hoping for a neutral winter next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year. Does not seem to mean much though. And everyone will get super excited when we get a -PNA big cold snap in October just to have go and remain + for the majority of the rest of the winter! 1 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: And everyone will get super excited when we get a -PNA big cold snap in October just to have go and remain + for the majority of the rest of the winter! At least most members are 0 or negative for the next 7-10 days. And only a couple members are out to lunch both directions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: And everyone will get super excited when we get a -PNA big cold snap in October just to have go and remain + for the majority of the rest of the winter! Or b*tch and moan when we get one because they will remember this year and assume it means our winter is now doomed. Of course both takes would be wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year. Does not seem to mean much though. After the last few years of reading most of the posts in this forum and the analysis that has gone on, I've reached the conclusion that long range forecasts are a myth. They just don't work, period. No one can tell you with any degree of accuracy other than predicting climo what might happen to finish off this "winter", spring, next winter, etc. It is pretty much pointless and is just a guess. Sometimes these guesses work out, just like the Farmer's Almanac. Perhaps that will change someday with improved monitoring, models, and computing, but we are nowhere near that point at the moment. I suppose it is still something we will guess at and talk about and I will be here for that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: Or b*tch and moan when we get one because they will remember this year and assume it means our winter is now doomed. Of course both takes would be wrong. Someday you will recognize the prophecy in TWL's words. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Someday you will recognize the prophecy in TWL's words. Enjoy the prophet while we still have him. He's been threatening to take his wisdom, talents, and incredible prophecies to the heavens of Indiana sometime soon. You never know what you have until it is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, MossMan said: THE RAIN HAS STOPPED AFTER 4 or so straight days! Currently 38 degrees. .53” on the day, 1.29” for the month, 9.01” for the year. Same up here, it's pretty crazy, I saw some strange blue colored clouds off to the west about an hour before sunset. 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The hype generated between El Nino and La Nina is just plain ridiculous if you look at the statistics. Like Mat said. Look at all of the "prime" conditions this winter has had since October. And it's a dud..........so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said: The hype generated between El Nino and La Nina is just plain ridiculous if you look at the statistics. Like Mat said. Look at all of the "prime" conditions this winter has had since October. And it's a dud..........so far. Seems like weak El Niño’s...neutral or weak La Niñas have been pretty good. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Seems like weak El Niño’s...neutral or weak La Niñas have been pretty good. I believe even strong El Ninos have more potential than strong La Ninas. Without that Pacific shut off, it is a lot of cold rain and milder 850 temps. At least with a strong El Nino we know that Northern Jet will at some point be pumped up to the Yukon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 hours ago, dolt said: After the last few years of reading most of the posts in this forum and the analysis that has gone on, I've reached the conclusion that long range forecasts are a myth. They just don't work, period. No one can tell you with any degree of accuracy other than predicting climo what might happen to finish off this "winter", spring, next winter, etc. It is pretty much pointless and is just a guess. Sometimes these guesses work out, just like the Farmer's Almanac. Perhaps that will change someday with improved monitoring, models, and computing, but we are nowhere near that point at the moment. I suppose it is still something we will guess at and talk about and I will be here for that. I agree. I have never seen evidence of any degree of concistent accuracy or skill in seasonal forecasts. I just don't think it's possible to be more than ~55% confident in anything at that range. I think there are just too many factors and unknowns which only exponentially grow the further out a forecast is. Even if you nail down 3 or 4 aspects of a prediction, there will always be others which can throw the entire forecast off. This is even more true with Winter forecasts around here because a 1-week anomalous arctic event can make or break our Winter regardless of what happens the rest of the time. 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I believe even strong El Ninos have more potential than strong La Ninas. Without that Pacific shut off, it is a lot of cold rain and mild temps. At least with a strong El Nino we know that Northern Jet will at some point be pumped up to the Yukon. Strong niño Decembers are pretty good. 2015 was a Norman Rockwell Christmas around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I believe even strong El Ninos have more potential than strong La Ninas. Without that Pacific shut off, it is a lot of cold rain and milder 850 temps. At least with a strong El Nino we know that Northern Jet will at some point be pumped up to the Yukon. Have you checked the math on this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: Strong niño Decembers are pretty good. 2015 was a Norman Rockwell Christmas around here. I remember that one, even though I was in the banana belt of Gladstone at the time. Was very wet, with snow mixed quite often. Surely you scored big over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Someday you will recognize the prophecy in TWL's words. Facts are such meanies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said: Have you checked the math on this? Nope, haven't checked any of it, just pure speculation. Just seems like every year we get all hyped up for a moderate or strong La Nina that doesn't deliver. Or if it does it still isn't good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Pivotal - (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Pivotal - (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP. Big runs incoming Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Big runs incoming I look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Hmmm, rising heights further west of the main ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm, rising heights further west of the main ridge Cutoff low backing off as well??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Day 3 That cut-off west of the base of the ridge is not helping anything. (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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