TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Models will trend colder...And my place stays cool especially with snowcover. Im going for the gusto here!!! Do or die!! Let’s do this!! Sounds good! 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 absolutely gorgeous day in the methow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Even if we had super cold 850s above us, it would take a miracle for a sunny day to have high temps not be well above frreezing, no? So we shouldnt necessarily be discouraged by these max temps since if there were to be a storm coming in, or even cloud cover, we could expect the majority of the day to be closer to freezing? What is the usual gap between 850 and surface temps? That is an impossible question. Depends on time of year and how mixed the atmosphere is. The surface gradients are shown to become easterly on Tuesday which would be really cold in this case. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 High temps on Wednesday... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Had to do a double take when I saw these. Nice to see the models suddenly flip in our favor for once. 00z vs 12z Euro 00z vs 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: I won’t get above 32. I take what the euro shows and take about 5 degrees off with these patterns. For here anyway. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The weenies in the NE have to be really pissed at this run. The cold is way further west. Still cold there... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 What about lows. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Big improvement on day 7 vs yesterday's day 8. We're going the right way. Yeah... that battle between the block and at that cold ULL in western Canada and Alaska is wildly different on every run and determines everything for us. This is far from settled. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What about lows. I think Thursday morning is the coldest day... 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Interestingly... the 12Z ECMWF gets to the same place as the 00Z run did a couple days later. But that delay could mean additional big changes are coming. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The weenies in the NE have to be really pissed at this run. The cold is way further west. That’s a better snow pattern for us Mid-Atlantic people, so I’m happy. New England can go f**k itself. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The NE still gets really cold on this run... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 An encouraging sign indeed to have the major models all showing a near term flip to colder temps. This time of year I'll take anything I can get. Even if it's just a two day blip it would still be welcomed IMBY. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Texas in the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Acer said: An encouraging sign indeed to have the major models all showing a near term flip to colder temps. This time of year I'll take anything I can get. Even if it's just a two day blip it would still be welcomed IMBY. Pretty likely that you are in a great spot with the set up on Sunday into Monday... your area should be in the favored c-zone placement. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Christensen87 said: Texas in the freezer. Arctic air well into Mexico and heading into Florida by day 10... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: High temps on Wednesday... 30’s at my house! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Arctic air well into Mexico and heading into Florida by day 10... Nearly into Central America 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The NE still gets really cold on this run... I’d be fine with the really cold stuff staying in the West/Midwest. Those nasty airmasses usually suppress waves and leave us with a howling downslope wind + chapped lips. 1 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Now the question is, how far west can it get? Troughing has moved west for several runs now, will it continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 12Z EPS following the 12Z ECMWF... westward shift early next week. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 12Z EPS at day 5... 5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 12Z EPS on day 8... 1 1 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Haven’t followed the models much in the last 5 days. Awesome to read the last 3 pages and see the positive trend for next week. It looks like we still have a shot at winter even with all of the cancellation posts! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Check the 2m temps... that air in BC is unbelievably frigid. -75F departures. I found a -67F sounding up in far northern BC. Doesn't even look real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at day 5... Dang 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 12Z EPS at day 10... shows cold focused in the NE. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at day 10... shows cold focused in the NE. I still don’t hate this. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 This model shift to colder solutions in the short term is unreal. We could be looking at something really legit if this trend keeps up. Honestly, forget about what the models show in the long range. This winter has zero long range predictability. At this point, I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that most if not all the models have shifted the cold significantly further west in the short term. Phil, any insight? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 At this point it would not surprise me if things continued trending colder. 4 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Good news. GEFS is on board with Phase 7 MJO now. Finally caved to the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Buyer beware!!! 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Big improvement on the EPS as well. The thing I really like is the aspect dealing with the bottom part of the block progressing eastward after the initial cold shot is being delayed more on each run. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: How’s the Korean Ensemble mean looking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: If the current trends continue that could happen. Wouldn't that be something? The funny thing is this is what should happen with MJO 7, although not necessarily that extreme.. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, paulb/eugene said: How’s the Korean Ensemble mean looking ? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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