February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Lot of model riding left before we see what actually happens.

Yep be prepared for lots of changes good or bad each run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Requiem said:

I like the fact that the offshore flow stays intact— could it possibly be a December 1996 scenario?

Better get ready for 0" of snow in Portland if its a December 1996 scenario. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

00z Euro on pivotal is even crazier with putting snowstorms along the I5 corridor. PDX gets two feet on this run. Of course I'd like to see maybe 10 more runs before taking it with a grain of sodium. 

Strangely only a few inches here.

Think we only have 8 left  

[Christensen87]

[wxmet]

With a meridional jet orientation and divergence within the jet left exit region there is room for the low to track north and precip to extend well into Washington.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This maps shows more snow than 2019 did. It would be totally obnoxious if this happened again. 

[GHweatherChris]

Unfortunately it is now inevitable that this is coming soon....

 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better get ready for 0" of snow in Portland if its a December 1996 scenario. 

Lots of ice that month I believe.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Unfortunately it is now inevitable that this is coming soon....

 

[paulb/eugene]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

96 was a Pinapple Express overrunning. Not the same pattern at all.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

3’ of snow in about 60 hours

Kelso still in the bullseye but it expanded from Corvallis to Seattle.

[snow drift]

This isn't a good snow pattern for Spokane. I would prefer to retain my cold air. Keep those lows to our south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would be climate justice to see areas south of Everett do well this year. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

With how cold this air is, could we be looking at 12:1-15:1 ratios?

[wxmet]

So either things get suppressed to the south or we get a historic snowstorm. Lots to work out in the coming week.

[Winterdog]

Good runs tonight!  I can't type fast enough to keep up with all the posts so I will say thanks for the read!  Glad to say I was wrong with my prediction for tonight.  I hope the snow gets spread around so everyone gets a good dose.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I mean, this is just ridiculous... 

1880.

[bainbridgekid]

With a chunk of the PV parked that close and a series of lows undercutting the ridge, the potential for lowland snow Thursday-Sunday is pretty much off the charts.

However, by its very nature, the potential for heartache is almost equally high. This is the ultimate battleground pattern between the Pacific and the PV. Thread the needle and you might get absolutely nailed like the Euro shows between Portland and Olympia, but if that first low goes North, we could end up with a January 2011 setup with the PV pushed further to our Northeast and mainly rain after a quick overrunning event. If the jet ends up more suppressed like the GEM shows (less likely IMO) then we could end up with more of a dry February 2006 pattern.

Bottom line: Gonna be a very long week

 

[snow drift]

Just now, wxmet said:

So either things get suppressed to the south or we get a historic snowstorm. Lots to work out in the coming week.

It could be heavily suppressed and cold. We could thread the needle and have a huge regional snowstorm. It could trend north and flood the region with warm air. Fun times are afoot.

[Requiem]

I’m rooting for suppression rn haha 

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah I was just thinking about how much of a slam dunk January 2011 seemed and it was terribly depressing. Of course February 2011 made up for it...but nothings ever a slam dunk. Just keep hoping that the good trends continue! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I mean, this is just ridiculous... 

Probably the snowiest EURO run I've ever seen in my life for both SEA and PDX. Very interested in seeing what the EURO ensembles show for the snow mean.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO shows like a foot of snow at Seattle it seems. Not sure what's wrong with that. lol

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

With how cold this air is, could we be looking at 12:1-15:1 ratios?

69:1

[snow_wizard]

What a night for the Weatherbell ECMWF maps to not be working.  Crap!

[Christensen87]

RIP sleep for the next week 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Always a good sign when NWS waits to do the Evening discussion.  I mean what do you say lol.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

With a chunk of the PV parked that close and a series of lows undercutting the ridge, the potential for lowland snow Thursday-Sunday is pretty much off the charts.

However, by its very nature, the potential for heartache is almost equally high. This is the ultimate battleground pattern between the Pacific and the PV. Thread the needle and you might get absolutely nailed like the Euro shows between Portland and Olympia, but if that first low goes North, we could end up with a January 2011 setup with the PV pushed further to our Northeast and mainly rain after a quick overrunning event. If the jet ends up more suppressed like the GEM shows (less likely IMO) then we could end up with more of a dry February 2006 pattern.

Bottom line: Gonna be a very long week

 

Geez, talk about being a touch hypocritical, you basically just said my point, but more PC.  We all want a huge blast of snow and cold but you seem to agree with me that is it is far, so very far from happening at this point.

[snow drift]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

1880.

Storm King, baby!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

LOL

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Lots of ice that month I believe.

Yes there was an ice storm at the end of '96. I was a bit young but my parents remember. Pretty sure it was the same year as the floods earlier.

[OysterPrintout]

Look it's either a bust or we thread the needle for 2 feet of snow and we all know where the smart money is...ON THE TWO FEET OF SNOW! CMON!

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO shows like a foot of snow at Seattle it seems. Not sure what's wrong with that. lol

I think most are worried about everything trending too far north and a January 2011 redux. I actually feel like we’re in a good spot and it’ll work out for everyone but who knows. I’m feeling pretty confident about something good happening though. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO shows like a foot of snow at Seattle it seems. Not sure what's wrong with that. lol

That's what I would gather based on the general picture.  On Weatherbell the precip and surface pressure maps aren't updating.  850s are really cold and it's obvious there is overrunning.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Geez, talk about being a touch hypocritical, you basically just said my point, but more PC.  We all want a huge blast of snow and cold but you seem to agree with me that is it is far, so very far from happening at this point.

Dude... the ECMWF shows the historic snow starting in just 5 days.   Its not that far from happening.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Gradient Keeper]

After 4 AM Thursday the warmest PDX briefly gets to is 37 next Monday 4 PM before quickly falling back into the 20s with strong east wind and snow.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Always a good sign when NWS waits to do the Evening discussion.  I mean what do you say lol.

The evening and mid morning shifts don't do anything but regurgitate what the previous shifts said, they always say we will wait for the next shift to make changes.

[RentonHill]

Why the eff can’t this ish start tomorrow