February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Winterdog]

What's weird is the 850's are still warmer on next Sunday than they are right now

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Austin Wright said:

Holy schnickes. 00z Euro absolutely buries everyone from Tacoma to PDX. Would prefer it a touch cooler, but not a bad run for those areas.

[snow_wizard]

I'm ready to buy off on a big snow event after seeing the ECMWF and UKMET both go bonkers on this run.  The ECMWF pulls off a miracle by not moving that second low inland before it dies off the south WA Coast.  Amazing run from PDX north.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

By Sunday morning, the wealth has been spread to many.

Sometimes models tend to underplay totals. Wonder if these will be higher.

[Meatyorologist]

Ack, the Olympics prevent those from Tacoma northward from seeing pepto snowfall totals. Still very decent. Just wish there was more of a SW component to it.

[RentonHill]

00z taking care of our friends from BC this round too

[Esquimalt]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

By Sunday morning, the wealth has been spread to many.

What does the kuchera look like? 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hopefully the warming trend stops. This isn't even looking that impressive for cold anymore.

[Winterdog]

I'll be happy with 3 inches of snow.  I'm glad to see Seattle and PDX get the big totals.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

00z taking care of our friends from BC this round too

This reminds me of February 2017 so much

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us.

Very wise words of caution. 

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm ready to buy off on a big snow event after seeing the ECMWF and UKMET both go bonkers on this run.  The ECMWF pulls off a miracle by not moving that second low inland before it dies off the south WA Coast.  Amazing run from PDX north.

Very tough to deliver that much snow to PDX and SEA simultaneously. Has just the right balance to do it. Hopefully verifies. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

This reminds me of February 2017 so much

It’s EXACTLY the same.

[Winterdog]

Coldest 850's -8 on this run and that is north of Seattle and lasts for a day.  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hopefully the warming trend stops. This isn't even looking that impressive for cold anymore.

Yeah, it's snowier up here but at the cost of truly Arctic air. I was really looking forward to sub-freezing highs perhaps.

[TT-SEA]

Bottom line.... this is a deformation snow event.   And the ECMWF is just way better at resolving complicated scenarios like this with moisture interacting with a sharp temperature boundary.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Acer said:

Coldest 850's -8 on this run and that is north of Seattle and lasts for a day.  

Wasn't the GFS like -15C for SEA?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah, it's snowier up here but at the cost of truly Arctic air. I was really looking forward to sub-freezing highs perhaps.

There's always hope for a compromise with the UKMET and GFS.

[Esquimalt]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This reminds me of February 2017 so much

That is a totally different pattern. Look at that river of moisture coming from the south west 

[TacomaWaWx]

Still looks good for PDX north is the main takeaway from tonight’s runs. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us.

Yeah, was hoping to see this run a little more aggressive there. Really don't want to see things water down any further the next 48 hours.

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bottom line.... this is a deformation snow event.   And the ECMWF is just way better at resolving complicated scenarios like this with moisture interacting with a sharp temperature boundary.   

How do you think we'll do up here? 

[Winterdog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wasn't the GFS like -15C for SEA?

Yep.  

 

[Omegaraptor]

Man... Tigard and Beaverton are literally right on the line between getting dumped with snow and having lots of sleet/ZR mixed in on the Euro.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Day 7 looks like another snow event on euro.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

That is a totally different pattern. Look at that river of moisture coming from the south west 

Yea different setup for sure. I was just referencing the cut off line right below Seattle

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still looks good for PDX north is the main takeaway from tonight’s runs. 

It's going to melt in a big hurry though

[snow_wizard]

The amazing cold pool being depicted over Central and Eastern WA is what makes this thing work.  Seepage through the passes / evaporative cooling and presto. Pretty how amazing it's progged to stay so cold with how terrible the 500mb pattern looks at one point.  The flow going back to NW so quickly keeps the cold pool in place.  Really perfect progression.

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us.

Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. 

What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This reminds me of February 2017 so much

An notification came up on my google photos reminding me that it looked like this around this on Feb 9, 2017, perhaps the whole region will look like this by Feb 13, 2021:

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Acer said:

It's going to melt in a big hurry though

Massive difference in snow depth between hour 144 and 168. Warm rain comes in and washes all that beautiful snow away.

Then again the models can't even figure out what's going to happen in 72 hours. How much confidence can we really have in 144?

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Acer said:

It's going to melt in a big hurry though

We dont know that yet still...this obviously isn’t resolved yet. I’m still liking our odds here in western WA. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ack, the Olympics prevent those from Tacoma northward from seeing pepto snowfall totals. Still very decent. Just wish there was more of a SW component to it.

No we don't want that.  A SW component would make it turn to rain.  The lower totals in Puget Sound are from the dry east winds.  Looks great to me.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. 

What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. 

Arctic air surging down into the Columbia Basin and into the Gorge. -13c to -15c. Need that to continue.

[Requiem]

Thank goodness portland is next to a nice funnel of colder air. Won’t work otherwise.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What does the detailed map look like for 168hrs?

[Meatyorologist]

Part of me wonders if being this late in the season means you have to sacrifice really cold temperatures for decent snowfall in our region. Maybe highs in the mid-thirties are all a part of the deal.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. 

What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. 

The cold east of the Cascades is what does the trick.  It's very intense during the period in question.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still shows several days of snowfall and a couple sub freezing highs. Sure it’s not mid 20s and snowing but it’s still a pretty d*mn good run. This still isn’t resolved yet probably will be more changes.