February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Jim hacked Europe!

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like I’m bordering on the pepto 

Buddy, you're in the s***house right now, with your back and forth all d**n winter, if anybody better pray for cold and snow, it's YOU Mr. Longshot".

[Fircrest]

50 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

More evidence of the stronger Arctic front is that the mount of moisture available is way up.

Doesn't look good for Tacoma area.  I almost never get much snow with arctic fronts coming south at the beginning of a cold spell. 

[MossMan]

Just now, JBolin said:

Buddy, you're in the s***house right now, with all your back and forth all D**n winter, if anybody better pray for cold and snow, it's YOU Mr. Longshot".

I haven’t wavered more than about 72 times...I don’t know what you are talking about! 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I haven’t wavered more than about 72 times...I don’t know what you are talking about! 

Yeah, that's the problem, the 73rd time is what's going to f*** this all up.

Pick your battles sir, pick YOUR battles.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Doesn't look good for Tacoma area.  I almost never get much snow with arctic fronts coming south at the beginning of a cold spell. 

I’m currently ground zero!!! Let’s hope that doesn’t change! 

[snow drift]

21 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Holy mackerel! That sucker is cold. -24 850s into Spokane. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Much less modeled snow and cold than this have produced some of our greatest snowfalls in the PNW.  Lots to be excited about for sure.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Doesn't look good for Tacoma area.  I almost never get much snow with arctic fronts coming south at the beginning of a cold spell. 

That is only through Wednesday morning which is the end of the run.   Its just starting to move south.   Tacoma actually does pretty well with true arctic fronts.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Much less modeled snow and cold than this have produced some of our greatest snowfalls in the PNW.  Lots to be excited about for sure.

Yeah I’m not even worried about what the snow maps are showing. Usually aren’t accurate more than 48 hours out most of the time and even then can be wrong! February 2019...we were supposed to get less than 22” of snow but it happened. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is only through Wednesday morning which is the end of the run.   Its just starting to move south.   Tacoma actually does pretty well with true arctic fronts.

Yeah arctic front continues to move south, Tacoma could still be hit.

[Jbolin]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m not even worried about what the snow maps are showing. Usually aren’t accurate more than 48 hours out most of the time and even then can be wrong! February 2019...we were supposed to get less than 22” of snow but it happened. 

Arctic fronts are no joke, I've seen several over the years, some are run of the mill, but some with enough upper level support can blast through like a lake effect snow squall and drop close to 6-8" in a matter of 3-4 hours followed by a near flash freeze and you're left wondering who stole your wallet.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is only through Wednesday morning which is the end of the run.   Its just starting to move south.   Tacoma actually does pretty well with true arctic fronts.

Yeah I was about to say...not much shadowing here with precip moving from north to south. I can remember a couple times where we had some decent snow with Arctic fronts. Best one was probably November 2010! 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Much less modeled snow and cold than this have produced some of our greatest snowfalls in the PNW.  Lots to be excited about for sure.

Going into the festivities of December 2008 the moisture side of things did not look all that great, but that kept changing last minute and it seemed like NWS Seattle was having to issue last minute Winter Storm Warnings every other day on average for my location. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, JBolin said:

Arctic fronts are no joke, I've seen several over the years, some are run of the mill, but some with enough upper level support can blast through like a lake effect snow squall and drop close to 6-8" in a matter of 3-4 hours followed by a near flash freeze and you're left wondering who stole your wallet.

Lol, I’d be happy if we got 1” of snow with this whole event to be honest I’m not needy! 

[Fircrest]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m currently ground zero!!! Let’s hope that doesn’t change! 

Maybe I'll have my turn later....

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Going into the festivities of December 2008 the moisture side of things did not look all that great, but that kept changing last minute and it seemed like NWS Seattle was having to issue last minute Winter Storm Warnings every other day on average for my location. 

Oh, I remember.  Lake Stevens did very well then.

[bainbridgekid]

17 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Doesn't look good for Tacoma area.  I almost never get much snow with arctic fronts coming south at the beginning of a cold spell. 

I'd say Tacoma actually does pretty well with true arctic fronts as long as they move far enough South. They're just pretty rare around here. 

I remember Tacoma getting smacked with the stalled Arctic front in January 2007.

[Fircrest]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is only through Wednesday morning which is the end of the run.   Its just starting to move south.   Tacoma actually does pretty well with true arctic fronts.

Maybe it's been so long since we've had a true arctic front.  I also don't seem to have memories of past events like some on this forum.  I am amazed at how some of you can quote stats so quickly and apparently accurately of past weather events.

[Fircrest]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I was about to say...not much shadowing here with precip moving from north to south. I can remember a couple times where we had some decent snow with Arctic fronts. Best one was probably November 2010! 

That's a good point.  We get shadowed a lot with systems coming in from the NW.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Arctic fronts are no joke, I've seen several over the years, some are run of the mill, but some with enough upper level support can blast through like a lake effect snow squall and drop close to 6-8" in a matter of 3-4 hours followed by a near flash freeze and you're left wondering who stole your wallet.

That sounds nice, I've followed weather for 4-5 years and there hasn't been an arctic front that wasn't pathetic.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Fircrest said:

Maybe it's been so long since we've had a true arctic front.  I also don't seem to have memories of past events like some on this forum.  I am amazed at how some of you can quote stats so quickly and apparently accurately of past weather events.

It's easy when you have hardcore nerds like Tim, Matt, Jim, Phil, Wxstatman, Andrew and couple others

[snow_wizard]

On the EPS bout 1/3 of the members show Seattle getting at least 2 inches by next Friday morning and a large number of members show lows below 20 with the coldest showing 9.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, wxmet said:

Another look at the Arctic front that's dropping south. Dynamics look great with this one.

 

Looks like arctic front that has a bit of moisture to play with. My favorite kind.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

It's easy when you have hardcore nerds like Tim, Matt, Jim, Phil, Wxstatman, Andrew and couple others

Wxstatman is unreal.  I wish he would come back.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

43 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Fully Loaded Arctic Blast! ❄

[Timmy Supercell]

[The Swamp]

If an arctic front actually drops through the sound and you haven't experience one before, they can be quite impressive.

[Fircrest]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was just talking about that with my wife. I'd be perfectly content if 2-4 inches fell here through this week. Sure, 6+ would be ideal but at this point I don't need much to make me happy. Hell, I was ecstatic when we got that 10-15 mins of very heavy snow with the big snowflakes on the solstice and it only amounted to about a trace. 

My bar is pretty low. 

I agree.  It's more about the snow for me rather than cold. I am very frustrated when we have a cold spell and then come out of it with gradual warming or rain. Seems like wasted cold air!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Fully Loaded Arctic Blast! ❄

I buy the possibility of half of that.  No way the valley produces lower 850s and more snow.  Perhaps more snow but never the lower 850s in this pattern.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, ..... said:

If an arctic front actually drops through the sound and you haven't experience one before, they can be quite impressive.

Even in Hell?  I bet there's a lot of lightning, isn't there?

[Andrew M]

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Feb 13 would be a big snowstorm for PDX but I'm not one for buying a single instance of the Euro.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, ..... said:

If an arctic front actually drops through the sound and you haven't experience one before, they can be quite impressive.

And more often than not they do not produce more than flurries in the sound.  Usually the real intense ones have a quick wind shift accompanied by a skiff at best.  Port Angeles is another story :).

[JW8]

Just ordered my daughter a sled. Apologies in advance if this thing busts... 

[MossMan]

Been a few chilly February 6ths the last few years. 

[Perturbed Member]

And now for the most coveted run of the day, the 18z NAVGEM

498 line into NE WA. 

[Fircrest]

10 minutes ago, JBolin said:

It's easy when you have hardcore nerds like Tim, Matt, Jim, Phil, Wxstatman, Andrew and couple others

BLI snowman is another one with lots of historical info.

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Just ordered my daughter a sled. Apologies in advance if this thing busts... 

Wandavision?

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

And now for the most coveted run of the day, the 18z NAVGEM

498 line into NE WA. 

 

Almost a dead ringer for February 2014.