February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

By the way congrats on your Huge move in life and I wish you and your family well on this adventure!.  Currently 10* and here are some shots from around Tampere.  Looks like cold is plentiful but moisture will be the challenge if anything although I don’t know that area.  Looks like annual precipitation amount around 23 inches annually.  The great thing is whatever falls hangs around forever! 

Thank you, they "average" 23" but normally receive upwards of 60" especially in neutral years

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

Jim. Plz stop.

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

You're setting yourself up for a lot of pain this week if that's your bare minimum expectation man. It's not a given both stations will have 3 highs below 40 let alone 35.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Jim. Plz stop.

That's the only firm prediction I'll make for now.

[The Swamp]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

Jim I truly hope it happens for you man.  

[Phil]

18z GEFS is surprisingly...identical to 12z EPS mean for the next 10 days or so, given the high amplitude vacillations across guidance.

[snow drift]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking that way.  What is up with Feb the past decade?  When I was kid Feb was always a dud.  Weird how cyclical this stuff is.

February into March is the bread winner. January is almost a spring month.

[Requiem]

Good trends and good ensembles, and most of them have that cold offshore flow I so love

[Deweydog]

Just for a little perspective, PDX scored a 37 degree high with -12c 850mb temps, some snow cover and thicknesses around 510dm on 2/13/1990.

Different setup, as there wasn’t nearly as much dry advection potential but it paints a bit of a picture...

[snow drift]

I wish I could order a 20 degree blizzard for Springfield.

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

I wish I could order a 20 degree blizzard for Springfield.

Snaps fingers, 

Done!

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

February into March is the bread winner. January is almost a spring month.

Historically seasonal lag becomes more pronounced the further east and north you go on the continent. To where the historic averages are actually lowest in February.

St. John's, Newfoundland which sits at our latitude at the extreme eastern end of the continental shelf is 0.7F colder in February than in January, and 7F colder in February than December. The same phenomena exists in the Arctic, where Utqiaġvik (Barrow) averages 0.5F colder in February than in January as sea ice increase couples with the still relatively short days for their coldest weather.

Our history says it's likely just cyclical, but perhaps seasonal lag is simply increasing as a whole with climate change. The same trend can certainly be seen with August, which is now overwhelmingly our hottest month as opposed to July.

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just for a little perspective, PDX scored a 37 degree high with -12c 850mb temps, some snow cover and thicknesses around 510dm on 2/13/1990.

Different setup, as there wasn’t nearly as much dry advection potential but it paints a bit of a picture...

Very different. That was a straight WNW airmass with no gorge component or arctic air advection into the basin. Clouds moved in the next day (after a clear night!) and we scored a 33/11 on Valentine's Day in Vancouver.

[OysterPrintout]

18z GFS looks like a very realistic solution to me in that TWL will have spent this winter complaining bitterly just 2 years out from getting totally crushed and then completely threads the needle for another crushing while pdx scores another dusting.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much the bare minimum we will see out of this now as far as cold is at least three max temps of 35 of lower for both SEA and PDX.  Top tier cold is still very possible.  There have been a few Febs in the past that have pulled off highs in the low 20s around mid month.  1858 pulled off a ridiculous pair of 15 degree highs at Fort Steilacom (near Tacoma).

In Snow Wizard We Trust!

[Prairiedog]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think that is very, very far from a given right now. Highs of 35 or lower are no layup at this point in the season, let alone long strings of them.

It is tough.  Last prolonged cold shot here was Feb 4-9th '14.  37 on the 4th 23/19f on the 6th, 33/27 in the 9th.  That was my last good Feb cold snap.  Nothing prolonged (more than two days) after that.  None of the good years like '50. 69, 89, 96 etc had much or any at all after about the 7-8th.   Records are made to be broken though.  Maybe this is the year?

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

OT, but I see there is a little drama over on the Facebook groups........oh boy.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

18z GFS looks like a very realistic solution to me in that TWL will have spent this winter complaining bitterly just 2 years out from getting totally crushed and then completely threads the needle for another crushing while pdx scores another dusting.

BSF became the catch phrase of that winter as his cries echoed through the deepest chambers of our forum. Right up until the moment he realized he had 20" of snow.

[snow drift]

Well, Uncle Al was evicted from the Aleutian Shores apartment complex. He's been a terror all winter long. I can't say that I'm sad to see him go. I think he went on a long voyage with the Gorton's fisherman. Who knows what kind of hijinks they may be up to. Don't let the door hit you where the good Lord split you.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

OT, but I see there is a little drama over on the Facebook groups........oh boy.

What groups are these....perhaps I need to check them out? 

[Timmy]

5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

OT, but I see there is a little drama over on the Facebook groups........oh boy.

How about we leave it there

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very different. That was a straight WNW airmass with no gorge component or arctic air advection into the basin. Clouds moved in the next day (after a clear night!) and we scored a 33/11 on Valentine's Day in Vancouver.

Point is, you can have a lot of eggs in your basket going into mid February and still struggle.  Low level cold potential would be higher this go around, assuming we can actually pull that much cold into basin which is still pretty suspect.

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

What groups are these....perhaps I need to check them out? 

No, no you don't. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

How about we leave it there

Sounds good to me.  Just saw it and figured some would have interest.  I definitely won't mention any details here.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Point is, you can have a lot of eggs in your basket going into mid February and still struggle.  Low level cold potential would be higher this go around, assuming we can actually pull that much cold into basin, which is still pretty suspect.

Good point. Models always overestimate low level cold air into the Columbia Basin. We rarely overachieve. We usually end up warmer than the initial forecast.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Point is, you can have a lot of eggs in your basket going into mid February and still struggle.  Low level cold potential would be higher this go around, assuming we can actually pull that much cold into basin, which is still pretty suspect.

February 16, 1993 is probably a better example, IMO.

PDX had 515 thickness with -14c 850mb temps and very deep dry air advection and gorge outflow. Still managed a 35/28 with full sunshine. Of course a few days later....

[Prairiedog]

I remember a one day quick hitter on or near presidents day where we had a dry backdoor blast.  Can't remember the year.  High was in the upper 20's  I was out doing my normal Presidents Day rose pruning when it hit.  One day and it was over.  Dry, cold, and done. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

February 16, 1993 is probably a better example, IMO.

PDX had 515 thickness with -14c 850mb temps and very deep dry air advection and gorge outflow. Still managed a 35/28 with full sunshine. Of course a few days later....

2006 looks decent if you’re of the Canadian ilk.  

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I remember a one day quick hitter on or near presidents day where we had a dry backdoor blast.  Can't remember the year.  High was in the upper 20's  I was out doing my normal Presidents Day rose pruning when it hit.  One day and it was over.  Dry, cold, and done. 

2006!

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2006 looks decent if you’re of the Canadian ilk.  

Thursday is looking like 2006.

[Winterdog]

The demise of Seattle's >40 maximum streak still looking very much in the air (no pun intended).  Sub-forty high or die!

[snow drift]

Sunday night through Friday: Snowfall will taper out through
Monday with a few additional inches expected for the Cascades and
the central and southern ID Panhandle.

A deep trough centered over southern Canada and the Midwestern US
will allow for a very cold Arctic boundary to begin to push into
the Inland NW. Models currently have the boundary stalling
diagonally from Vancouver Island, across NE Washington and along
the Idaho/Montana border early Sunday morning and afternoon
through Monday night. As the boundary starts to push into the area
as a backdoor cold front early Tuesday, relatively higher
pressure behind the front and lower pressure over the Pacific will
allow for a north/northeasterly low level flow to set up and
bring cold, dry air down from British Columbia. Models have been
consistent with the idea that temperatures will begin to trend
colder beginning Tuesday and lasting through at least the end of
the work week. The northeasterly pressure gradient will tighten
midweek as the offshore surface low pressure moves closer to the
Pacific coast. This will bring breezy to gusty north-northeasterly
winds through the Okanogan Valley into the Columbia Basin
Wednesday through Friday. Models have been delaying the peak of
the cold temperatures a few days, with the temperatures now
forecasted to bottom out on Thursday before potentially starting a
slight upward trend on Friday. While we will be spared from the
brutally cold temperatures forecasted for the upper Midwest, low
temperatures will drop into the teens and single digits and highs
will generally be in the low 20s and low 30s. Thursday will be the
exception though, with the current high temperature forecast in
the teens for a majority of area outside of the Columbia Basin and
the L-C valley, where highs are forecasted to be in the 20s.
There is still a decent amount of uncertainty in this temperature
forecast, but the main message will remain the same: COLD! With
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday currently forecasted to be the
coldest and breeziest days, temperatures will most likely feel
much colder than the actual value. It is important to be prepared
for these conditions by layering up if you plan to be outside. VMT

[Prairiedog]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2006!

That would be it!  Feb 17th.  I think PDX had a high of 35 but I was colder than that that day.  One and done.  It was overcast all day but not a flake fell.  Thanks. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Anybody else anticipating the 00z suite of models?

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, Snowdrift said:

My earlier comment may have come off as cold or calloused. I didn't mean to come across that way. As far as the homeless are concerned, I would do anything to help them. In my my experience, I've noticed that a sizable group don't want any help. Of course they should all have access to warming shelters during cold waves. That is the humane thing to do.

I work for a nonprofit as a project manager and I would say 80% of homeless people want help and can’t get it. This is a discussion for another day. 
 

colder runs ahead!!

[Timmy Supercell]

57 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

February into March is the bread winner. January is almost a spring month.

Winner winner chicken dinner! Can't wait.

January has a few moments, but probably the least snowy month averaged out this last decade.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

That would be it!  Feb 17th.  I think PDX had a high of 35 but I was colder than that that day.  One and done.  It was overcast all day but not a flake fell.  Thanks. 

PDX had a midnight high of 37 but advected down to 26 by the next morning, then only reached an afternoon high of 31.  Pretty crazy cold for 2/17 with full sunshine and a snowless landscape.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I work for a nonprofit as a project manager and I would say 80% of homeless people want help and can’t get it. This is a discussion for another day. 
 

colder runs ahead!!

I have quite a few family members with drug and alcohol problems. Some of them have been homeless at times. So I'm well aware of the struggles they face.

[wxmet]

18z ECMWF is running. No major changes out to the 54hr.

[The Swamp]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I work for a nonprofit as a project manager and I would say 80% of homeless people want help and can’t get it. This is a discussion for another day. 
 

colder runs ahead!!

I work in this area too and I would say 80% want to get to their next fix.  Guess we probably aren't seeing it the same.

Tonights runs are going to be interesting.  Will the cold and snow be delayed yet again?  Pushed back again?