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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Several of my buddies and coworkers knows how much I'm into weather and climatology. Pretty much been getting an onslaught of texts asking how bad the storm is because they "read on and heard on the news that there is a 'bomb cyclone' and that they're worried about power outages" -- had to ensure them that everything is okay and the storm is way offshore. 

This is the type of media sensationalism that we have to deal with and it targets a certain group of people who have no clue about anything about weather for clicks. It's also up to us to not fan the flames on social media by posting these type of maps without a broader context and explanation. 

This is a fight that I'll be with Scott all the way. 

Boy that cried wolf syndrome.  When the big one is really going to hit people will yawn.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Absolutely gorgeous drive to and from my friends place in Carnation this morning, the color was amazing! There where not many places to easily pull off of SR-203 but I did take a few pics up off of the side road by their property. Then stopped at the Lake Goodwin lake house on the way back. Was a drizzle fest! 
.16” so far on the day at home. 

7A4F8B45-5D7A-4B62-A03C-A4E9BFE228F7.jpeg

BCA270A9-EAEF-4F81-9F4A-344448F8164E.jpeg

6CF9AC17-D97D-4F03-B615-4607842A461C.jpeg

ED1B0A3D-FFDC-4CDE-A647-65A597F73370.jpeg

I see your glass table is still intact.  Like I mentioned a couple of years ago ours exploded on a hot summer day.  Pretty bizarre.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Several of my buddies and coworkers knows how much I'm into weather and climatology. Pretty much been getting an onslaught of texts asking how bad the storm is because they "read on and heard on the news that there is a 'bomb cyclone' and that they're worried about power outages" -- had to ensure them that everything is okay and the storm is way offshore. 

This is the type of media sensationalism that we have to deal with and it targets a certain group of people who have no clue about anything about weather for clicks. It's also up to us to not fan the flames on social media by posting these type of maps without a broader context and explanation. 

This is a fight that I'll be with Scott all the way. 

There's still people that are new to the whole bomb term, overall it's creating a mess. 

When a storm of true historical magnitude ever hits the PNW, the words will have less impact on viewers.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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28 minutes ago, JBolin said:

How busy?

Like engage in carpentry/build a deck and coat it in Thompson's water seal "busy"?

Busy as in let’s get busy Arsenio Hall-style.

image.gif.21229fd372220b3de4dcb8a1f28bac39.gif

I remember distinctly two occasions when it was SNOWING outside while AH was on.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Thought the rain was done today but it’s been raining most of the last 2 hours out here. Been sheltered in the tent for most of the afternoon glad I took advantage of the dry weather yesterday lol. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I see your glass table is still intact.  Like I mentioned a couple of years ago ours exploded on a hot summer day.  Pretty bizarre.

It is! However that happened to me at my uncles summer place at Lake Entiat last year during my solo-cation, it just blew up for no apparent reason other than it was old and been in extreme temps in Eastern Wa for 20yrs. It was quite the mess to clean up and cut into my jetsking time! 

C1343899-5D64-484F-BC4D-D007EA49BDCD.jpeg

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  • scream 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Absolutely gorgeous drive to and from my friends place in Carnation this morning, the color was amazing! There where not many places to easily pull off of SR-203 but I did take a few pics up off of the side road by their property. Then stopped at the Lake Goodwin lake house on the way back. Was a drizzle fest! 
.16” so far on the day at home. 

7A4F8B45-5D7A-4B62-A03C-A4E9BFE228F7.jpeg

BCA270A9-EAEF-4F81-9F4A-344448F8164E.jpeg

6CF9AC17-D97D-4F03-B615-4607842A461C.jpeg

ED1B0A3D-FFDC-4CDE-A647-65A597F73370.jpeg

Yeah... the colors are just spectacular right now in the Snoqualmie Valley.   Wish we could have just one sunny day over the next week... but by time the rain takes a break the trees will be mostly bare.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Joker said:

heard about a bombing cyclone. how many feet of snow we getting????

about 187 kilotons of tnt

  • Confused 1
  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

My parents house is up that hill! It's a total pain in the a** sometimes with the blind corners (my mom actually got in a car accident up there recently due to someone speeding around a corner too fast) and potholes all over in the gravel but all the trees and vegetation up there really make it a beautiful drive in the fall. 

Yeah I did not encounter any cars but I could see those blind corners on the narrow road being quite an issue! Definitely no picture taking during those parts! Also there is one section where the washboard effect is so bad it wanted to bounce the back of my truck sideways even at a slow speed! But wow i do love that area! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Been pretty much dry here but I’ve been watching the showers go by just to my west. Somehow the rain knows you’re in a tent…

lol yes Mother Nature was a real jerk today. Oh well got to enjoy the nice weather yesterday and it’s nice to be able to test the effectiveness of the tent 0 water on the inside after 1/3” of rain roughly since I’ve been out here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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...Oregon Coast...

   Scattered low-topped convection will develop within an environment
   characterized by very strong shear and weak instability but steep
   lapse rates. These storms may become capable of producing a few
   damaging gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes later Sunday
   afternoon and evening.
  • Storm 4
  • scream 1
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47 minutes ago, Joker said:

heard about a bombing cyclone. how many feet of snow we getting????

slushy inch on the grassy surfaces if you are Phil’s neighbor in the Cascades at 6,000ft. 

  • Snow 1
  • Storm 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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🌪️🦈🌋

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-global-northernhemiwest-08-02_00Z-20211024_map_data-60-1n-5-100.gif

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  • lol 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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COD-GOES-West-continental-w_conus.08.20211024.023117-over=map-bars=.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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51/45 today with 0.39" of rain. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The much-derided NAM came in a fair amount stronger with the winds overnight Sunday and into Monday vs 18z.

07z3kmBAM.png

07z00z3kmNAM.png

Still not particularly strong, but getting closer. Those speeds if they verified would be a pretty standard autumn storm.

  • Like 3

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Mesoscales definitely speeding up the system in addition to shifting it eastward-- hmmm.....

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

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2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

I like the new “the swamp” name much better than the dots! 

  • Like 4

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

And empty the shelves went! 

tenor.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Today's spread of 48/39 was the smallest in quite some time!

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  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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15 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

it's not going to take much to blow down some of the old dead trees and ones loaded with wet leaves

i expect this storm to over perform because nearly everyone on this here site is poo poo'ing it

get your candles and flash lights ready

gather up some canned goods and toilet paper

get ready for a few days with out power

 

Since 1995 the majority of the large windstorms in my area have been under forecasted. Almost all of the hyped ones have flopped. 

  • Thanks 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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9 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

The problem is they trend north so if the models were showing it going south we would be in business but they have been west which even if it goes east it will end of being too far north.  The only hope is they have updated models to correct for this bias. 

I know what you are saying but that was hard to follow.

it’s going to be plenty windy for some power outages.

Hope I make it to Kroger in time tomorrow morning for my maple bars

 

 

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17 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I know what you are saying but that was hard to follow.

it’s going to be plenty windy for some power outages.

Hope I make it to Kroger in time tomorrow morning for my maple bars

 

 

I think I even confused myself:) Biggest thing we have going for us now is that no news agencies have been talking about it. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking ahead... the GFS show a little bit of rain for the Seattle area on Thursday and Friday.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-5616800.png

Wow ground zero here in western WA on this run…hopefully it goes south. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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