Niko Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: LOL @ GFS for Saturday night. I'd be getting snowed-in at my Sis's place if this came true. "The Christmas Miracle" That snowshield needs to come south 1 county and I'm in the game bud!! Lets see what happens.... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 31 minutes ago, Clinton said: Right now we will take moisture anyway we can get it. But things look to be changing fast in a good way and these rainers may be snowers lol by New Years Eve/Day. Guess I'm forgetting how dry it's been SW of here. There's rumors we could see a "period" of more favorable conditions for snow so here's to a chance for both of us to get in the action! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Guess I'm forgetting how dry it's been SW of here. There's rumors we could see a "period" of more favorable conditions for snow so here's to a chance for both of us to get in the action! Only .19 inches of rain the last 40 days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Tonight's GFS is very active. Will it stick? And will we have cold enough air? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 hours ago, GDR said: It was a between 2.56 and 2.63 in Chicago during that time. Prob the city proper, not the burbs or if you buy at Costco...it was somewhere below $2.50/gal iirc...remember, those are Cook county or rather "CROOK County" prices...higher taxes in the city. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 My goodness, the 0z Euro literally flashing snowmaggedon for the Northern members...storm train to close out the year... 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Nice "refresher" for a lot of Northwoods... @Madtown did pretty good...general 2-5" totals with some lolipop totals up near the NW side of Superior tucked in the NE corner of N MN where up to 12" fell. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 It isn't looking promising for those of us who are below the WI/IL border to see any snowfall of significance through year's end...will this pattern ever break??? The all-important MJO just doesn't want to exit Phase 7 quick enough...if its not one thing, its the other...man, it just feels like every year we struggle to get things to align in order to see some winter. But...is there some friggin' hope as we open the New Year?? The missing ingredient we need most is the cold and tonights 0z EPS suggesting it "presses" as we open up 2022 but to what extent? I'm not worried about storm action bc nearly every model is lock steady that a SW Flow is firing up and not going away anytime soon. @someweatherdude, the resiliency of the Aleutian Ridge appears to become a Long Term Long Wave pattern in the N PAC that ain't going away anytime soon. I personally think this will be the pattern for the rest of the Winter. It's just locked in and there is nothing I see down the road that will change this. Of course, it would be nice to see it slide a little farther east into the NE PAC but that is asking a lot from nature to do so. In any event, if there are any signs of hope for those south of I-80, it is the placement of the mean ridge setting up to the SE of the Aleutian Islands which suggests the PNA to somewhat relax as we open up JAN. The warm N PAC ocean waters are aiding in this N PAC ridge pattern and the cooler waters hugging the NW NAMER coastline are like a "magnet" for systems. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 10 hours ago, Clinton said: @MIKEKCasked me to post a snowfall map, this was the best I could find. HAHAHA.....that too funny!!! Great job! We will never give up on Winter! There are storms in play towards the New Year and after. Let's see if we can score. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: HAHAHA.....that too funny!!! Great job! We will never give up on Winter! There are storms in play towards the New Year and after. Let's see if we can score. Yes there are and there're some good trends showing up on the Euro and GEFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Believe it or not there is snow on the ground here this morning. Of course not much snow but there is a whopping 0.2" of snow on the ground. And yes the ground is white here at this time! The overnight low and current temperature with all that new snow was 21. While there may be some more light snow tomorrow that still looks to be all gone by Christmas Eve. The CFSv2 is now showing hints of it becoming colder and snowier as we head into January. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 First time this "winter" I'm optimistic by the New year period on the models. Even if we get a rainer to start, the cold that follows might be the start to winter we need here in SWMI. So if I'm optimistic, that is a good sign. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 You know it’s been a warm winter when you leave the gym and it’s 18F with a 7F WX and it feels like the Arctic. Sadly, that’s about normal this time of year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 The lake effect kicked in pretty good for some of the snow belts in northern MI last night. Just looking at the camera we have up at our place at Higgins it looks like a 3-4 inch snowfall and it’s still snowing pretty hard. Not sure what the weather is going to do up there moving forward, sounds like more light snow off and on till Friday night when it could be a wintery mix till Christmas Day then cooler air should move in and more snow should start to pile up. Should make for a interesting week or so of weather hopefully. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Getting some light snow fall here. The temperature is just 27 but the snow on the road and driveway has mostly melted and a good bit of the snow on the roofs has melted as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: You know it’s been a warm winter when you leave the gym and it’s 18F with a 7F WX and it feels like the Arctic. Sadly, that’s about normal this time of year. Tom, LOL. Look at the new GFS....it has winter returning!!! (maybe not returning, but actually showing up!!) Let's get this white gold party started! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 This morning's GFS shows a series of snow-producing systems moving across the midwest late December into early January. It appears we are headed in the right direction. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 7.9 degrees above average for the month and 50s the next 3 days, "cooling down" to the upper 30s and 40s thereafter. Oh and no precip either. Today Sunny, with a high near 50. South southwest wind 6 to 14 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Tom, LOL. Look at the new GFS....it has winter returning!!! (maybe not returning, but actually showing up!!) Let's get this white gold party started! Lots to look at and discuss. I don't think we've had a run of the GFS look like that all year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Canadian with a 955mb low.... I'll believe that when i see it. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 hours ago, tStacsh said: First time this "winter" I'm optimistic by the New year period on the models. Even if we get a rainer to start, the cold that follows might be the start to winter we need here in SWMI. So if I'm optimistic, that is a good sign. Could just be sauced up on the spiked Egg Nog, but hey, tis the season, eh? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 @Tomthe storm showing up on the GFS for New years Eve/Day, do you think it will eject in several pieces like it's being modeled or do you think it will be 1 strong piece of energy similar to late Oct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 It's perty to look at if nothing else! 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: You know it’s been a warm winter when you leave the gym and it’s 18F with a 7F WX and it feels like the Arctic. Sadly, that’s about normal this time of year. Felt the same way last evening. Took my daughter to see Santa at the Rosemont lights festival, was 36, and we were all FREEZING. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 Back in good ol' Memphis for the Christmas holiday. First time since I came to Nebraska for college that I came back for Thanksgiving, so feels weird already being back! I had my layover at MSP, didn't appear to much snow on the ground at all. Probably an inch or two. The good news is some serious cold air about to move into Montana and ND, which I hope will eventually bleed further south. I return to Lincoln on the 29th and I'm ready to be tracking winter weather. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 The Euro continues to keep much of the snow across the far north. The GFS has a big snow event across Iowa on the 31st, but the Euro has 50º and thunderstorms. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Could just be sauced up on the spiked Egg Nog, but hey, tis the season, eh? Most likely, but the models are really struggling to dial in to anything in medium to long range. So many pieces, but all we need is some cold air and some storms. Looks like we will have that soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: It's perty to look at if nothing else! The DGEX is back? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 12z euro says make sure your snowblower keeps working up here...holy moly 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, james1976 said: The DGEX is back? If this happens I will eat my and everyone else's shorts! I also see now there are 10 sunspots in the disc today. Has not happened in 11 years when we were at the height of the previous solar cycle. Makes me ponder how upset the sun will eventually get. We can't survive another Carrington event without being violently thrust back to the stone age. Does everyone know how to garden? Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: Most likely, but the models are really struggling to dial in to anything in medium to long range. So many pieces, but all we need is some cold air and some storms. Looks like we will have that soon. Well, if the GFS is leading the way. GEFS usually has a better (best) handle on things beyond d5. Haven't seen Tom posting those (yet?) for the 5-10 day time period. Guess we'll see, either way that GFS snow map looks much better for yby, while mby is riding the fringe. Might have to wait til mid-Feb again for a good hit here in Motown. This was the craziest W->E gradient map I can ever remember seeing. I mean like due W to East like there's an invisible line or wall keeping the good stuff "just north" of Chicago to Detroit corridor. Oh, and love how it shifts south at the PA border and eastward SMH. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 There was a some nice SHSN on my drive into work this morning here. Was very scenic and dusted up the ground for a bit. Just enough to remind it really is winter, lol. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, jaster220 said: There was a some nice SHSN on my drive into work this morning here. Was very scenic and dusted up the ground for a bit. Just enough to remind it really is winter, lol. Flakes have been in the air all day here. Not accumulating, but a nice scene. Got a dusting overnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 22, 2021 Report Share Posted December 22, 2021 And the numbers keep getting crazier and crazier https://weather.com/safety/tornado/news/2021-12-21-december-tornadoes-record-outbreaks 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 Dang the cold air keeps getting pushed back on each run. The models just can’t handle all the ingredients. It’s gotta snow decently at some point here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 This is unbelievable. Dec 15 was Iowa's all time highest tornadic day. DECEMBER 15TH! 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: Dang the cold air keeps getting pushed back on each run. The models just can’t handle all the ingredients. It’s gotta snow decently at some point here. 2011-12 is an actual analog year, but even that Dec had a bit snow. So far, this month is more like 2014 and the snows returned during the 1st week of Jan (5th iirc). I remember the day vividly as my wife and I were on the west side of Kzoo and it was really coming down nicely. Jan of 2012 was actually a near normal snowfall month too. l'm hopeful that we get a decent stretch in January. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 2011-12 is an actual analog year, but even that Dec had a bit snow. So far, this month is more like 2014 and the snows returned during the 1st week of Jan (5th iirc). I remember the day vividly as my wife and I were on the west side of Kzoo and it was really coming down nicely. Jan of 2012 was actually a near normal snowfall month too. l'm hopeful that we get a decent stretch in January. Last year was so awful. I don’t think I could stand a unprecedented repeat. So I’m continuing to think/hope that climo wins out and it starts snowing here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 Snow in Cedar Rapids 12z GFS: 30+" 00z GFS: 0" Oy. 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 23, 2021 Report Share Posted December 23, 2021 37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Snow in Cedar Rapids 12z GFS: 30+" 00z GFS: 0" Oy. Sounds about right lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.