East Dubzz Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Much better GFS run than I was expecting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: To give an idea of how utterly shi**y KC is for snow lovers: We're supposed to be at 15 degrees with sleet and freezing rain on Saturday. Chicago is supposed to be at 31 degrees with all snow. And you can't even find the explanation by looking at the maps. Our surface, 850mb and 700mb temps are all below freezing. I know why it's happening, but it doesn't make it any less frustrating. As I've said before, EVERYTHING has to come together just right for KC to get snow. So please no one tell me that KC has plenty of time and chances if we miss this one. KC really has gotten screwed for years now. I remember growing up they had some enormous storms, ice and snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: 5-County coming in clutch with the Barb's Rule backup! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Barb's Rule Image #1 is GFS afternoon Wednesday Image #2 is GFS 00z Tonight #patterns&trends 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, NH4NU said: Barb's Rule Image #1 is GFS afternoon Wednesday Image #2 is GFS 00z Tonight #patterns&trends Anyone clue me in to Barb's rule? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bellona said: Anyone clue me in to Barb's rule? Barb's Rule: Computer models are better 72 hours ahead of a snow event and get worse the closer you get. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 14 hours ago, NH4NU said: I recommend following his Facebook page, he has multiple videos on this question. He’s an old school guy (before reliance on weather models). He came up with “Barbs Rule” (who is his wife haha) many years ago which ultimately says 3 days prior to event, step away from models and begin monitoring things like surface track and trends, checking out different NWS agencies where the storm is currently located for their local observations, etc. After 7 consecutive EURO runs followed by 12z GFS coming more in line with it yesterday afternoon (72 hours out) no more models. He even predicted yesterdays evening runs would shift their track. Has this method failed over the years? Yes. But I’ve followed him for 15 years now and he wins more times than not. You can use the updated 12z NAM as an example of this method. @Bellona From this morning. Hope this helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Ah! Thanks everyone! I'm not looking to cash in on anything huge but 4 inches would be the most snow I've had yet this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 00z UK - The snow map is not calculating the totals correctly, so here's the precip map. It appears to be suggesting all the convection over the Ohio Valley will steal moisture from the snow as the system heads east. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: This is where models get too "literal" with their numeric formulas. I refuse to believe that there will be this sharp of a cutoff. From a foot of snow to less than an inch in the same county? With all do respect, have you looked at where the massive pool of dry air is setting up? Models have always struggled with dry air, and that sharp cutoff is more than likely a hint as to where that line is. Heaviest axis of snow typically sets up, just northwest of that axis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 ukie is slighly south (for northern end people in nebraska) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bellona said: Ah! Thanks everyone! I'm not looking to cash in on anything huge but 4 inches would be the most snow I've had yet this season. ANY snow I get will be the most I've had this season... 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Hmm. I just realized there is an error with the Pivotal UK snow maps. It is not multiplying the precip by the ratio like it should be, so the snow total is much lower than it actually is. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Generally good stuff in the 00z guidance so far for southeast Nebraska folks, looks like GFS ENS have also shifted north a tad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Hmm. I just realized there is an error with the Pivotal UK snow maps. It is not multiplying the precip by the ratio like it should be, so the snow total is much lower than it actually is. Yea that’s weird. Thanks for pointing it out, I wouldn’t have noticed Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Good 0z trends for my area as well. Keep nudging that north edge away! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro has ticked north. Kuchera disclaimer of course but the formula doesn't seem as ridiculous now given the QPF. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 8 hours ago, someweatherdude said: And everyone has been told by a model that the snow will miss them 24 hours out, only to get the snow. Not me! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Euro has ticked north. Kuchera disclaimer of course but the formula doesn't seem as ridiculous now given the QPF. Able to zoom in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Able to zoom in? Also, just kidding on my last post. Still above 20:1 ratios, I just can't do math. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 This was posted not long ago from the WPC. That looks like a pretty juiced storm system. Forecast is for 12 hours from now; will just be ringing in the new year! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Although it's not a "Kuchera vs Kuchera" #1: Wednesday 00z run (72hrs out from onset) #2: Tonight's 00z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 It's gonna be cold here. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Sref plumes are way up for Lincoln/Omaha/Fremont 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 I'll always root for Lincoln when Fargo is out of the running. Let's go Lincoln! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Sref plumes are way up for Lincoln/Omaha/Fremont Took a look and it seems like they're way freaking north. Norfolk and Sioux City have 15" means with several members above 20". Doesn't really make sense. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Took a look and it seems like they're way freaking north. Norfolk and Sioux City have 15" means with several members above 20". Doesn't really make sense. Has to be a model lat/lon error right? 06z hrrr and the rap from 03z are both crazy high amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Has to be a model lat/lon error right? Using 30:1 ratios further north (looks like around 20:1 or less along I-80) probably inflated totals but QPF is still way too high so far north Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 6z HRRR going nuts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 6z HRRR going nuts I80 special 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 6z HRRR going nuts gonna be 13-16" for CR/IC when all is said and done. Likely far overjuiced but it is steadfast on the north solution. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 As Bud mentioned, 06z HRRR is certainly fired up and especially over into NE IL...The Lake is likely to be "our friend" with this one...if ORD manages to get 10" from this, it would easily exceed the snowfall norms to date. ORD is sitting at a departure of -5.4". What a turnaround this would be in the snowfall dept. That goes for many of us in the MW/Plains region....literally from nothing, to something significant right as we open 2022! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z EPS certainly ticked upwards into parts of N MO/S IA...KC is literally the dividing line...based on the general idea from tonights ensemble runs, it is generally highlighting the jackzone to be S IA/N MO. The GEFS are much wetter compared to the EPS. Not sure why its so dry compared to the various other models. Hopefully it can trend wetter in today's 12z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 3z RAP is even more nuts than the hrrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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