Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper

[The Snowman]

Alright, I'll bite. First opportunity to have my hopes crushed this year!

[The Snowman]

12z ECMWF EPS Control using 10:1 ratios. Noticing Kuchera totals are a touch higher than 10:1 totals but given this could start out as a rain/snow mix locally a 10:1 average ratio for the event seems pretty fair.

[The Snowman]

18z NAM rolling, like the look of the precip shield in ND as it dips out of Canada.

[GDR]

Euro didn’t do so hot for me either with the New Years storm so will see

[Niko]

Here ya go KC peeps:

Minneapolis, Des Moines and St. Louis are all facing substantial snow accumulations, and Atlanta could pick up its first accumulating snowfall since the winter of 2017-2018.

[jcwxguy]

11 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

18z NAM rolling, like the look of the precip shield in ND as it dips out of Canada.

 

[GDR]

Nam looks a little East 

[Hawkeye]

18z NAM

[GDR]

[IMoveALot_Weather]

FGF's take is basically "we don't know"

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

NW flow aloft will persist into the weekend and to next week
probably into next month. Weather impacts and challenges in the
extended time frame center on clipper system set to move across the
northern plains Thursday night into Friday. As the clipper moves
through the region from NW to SE a band of snowfall is expected to
develop with the highest amounts just east of the track. Ensemble
solns showing widespread difference on the placement of the band so
sfc low track remains the key to impacts. Where the band does track
here is good indications of at least 2 inches, better than 60
percent, with the chance of 6 inches at 25 percent. Winds at this
point in time do not look problematic while snow is ongoing but may
pick up as the system departs quickly to the southeast Friday
afternoon.

 

[james1976]

DMX not getting crazy yet. Saying central and western Iowa should see 3+ inches. Lol

[bud2380]

RGEM - Des Moines seems to be the sweet spot on most models.  

 

[bud2380]

18z NBM (blend of models)

 

[bud2380]

18z GFS almost a carbon copy of the 12z on placement.  Looks wetter though.  

[bud2380]

Hard to tell if it shifted, but for the most part it's similar, again a little more snow in some areas.

 

[jcwxguy]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z GFS almost a carbon copy of the 12z on placement.  Looks wetter though.  

 

[bud2380]

If the GFS were to verify almost the entire state of Iowa would have warning criteria snow.  Only a few counties along the Mississippi River would likely be advisories instead.  But all 99 counties would be likely to have headlines.  I hope the Euro starts to cave towards the GFS.  

[Jayhawker85]

10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

 

Per this run this is still shifting a tad further west and places KC in the comma. Should be a interesting next couple of days watching models 

[james1976]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Hard to tell if it shifted, but for the most part it's similar, again a little more snow in some areas.

 

That's the best run yet for mby out of any model.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Totals aren't gonna end up being this high. If they are, it'll be in a much narrower band. That's just the name of the game with clippers.

[Clinton]

18z GEFS

 

[bud2380]

18z Euro increased totals along the Iowa City/CR corridor a little. So maybe just a tick further east. I hope tonight’s runs shift at least 50 miles east. 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro Kuchera- still snowing in S.IA into MO.

[Grizzcoat]

here is hr 90 of 18Z Euro-- the farthest out I have access to and I think as far it goes--

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and Mean

[james1976]

Feels like the west shift has settled down a bit. That Euro throws over 6" here. These clippers can dump sometimes!

[jcwxguy]

Would like just little more west shift here

[Clinton]

Winds will be gusting 34-38 on the back side, not blizzard but it will blow the snow around.

[james1976]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Winds will be gusting 34-38 on the back side, not blizzard but it will blow the snow around.

I noticed the isobars looked a bit tighter down that way. The snow should be wetter too. Hopefully it's cold enough up here to fluff it up a bit.

[Niko]

This looks to be a very potent system. Anyone lands on its bullseye, will score bigly. Good luck to y'all who are in the path of this.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z NAM is going back E...

[jcwxguy]

00z nam is east

[jcwxguy]

4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

00z nam is east

Or not? Lol

[Hawkeye]

Central/western Iowa is really looking good.  That area hasn't had much snow this season, so they deserve it.

I hope the American and Canadian models are right that good snow will make it into eastern Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z nam is juiced- that is not going to happen.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

Or not? Lol

It's alot stronger.

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

[james1976]

Looks a lot like 18z GFS

[The Snowman]

Trusty 12z Korean model is east, though - there's still hope!

[snowstorm83]

I found out last minute I have to go to Indianapolis this weekend so Lincoln is golden for this event 

[Hawkeye]

FWIW, the ICON is farther northeast... although it has been a ne outlier, so it really hasn't changed much.

[jcwxguy]

Canadian models must be having issues today

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS is C.IA dream...

[Clinton]

0z RDPS very similar to the NAM

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

The heavy snow band didn't move much on the 00z RDPS, but it did trend toward the UK/Euro and pull back the eastward extent.  Cedar Rapids drops a few inches this run.

[The Snowman]

As shown above it seems like there's some indication of snow continuing for a relatively long time, but I have to wonder if this ends up incorrect. Recent storms seem to have had Canadian high pressure verify stronger than what forecasts expected, leading to not only suppressed storm systems but also less precipitation overall. Good example is the most recent storm system that tracked from Omaha to Chicago, with the heaviest snow verifying south of forecasts and the northern end of the entire snowfall zone ending up drier than projected IIRC.

Not to say this is going to happen here, but if it did, one might think it results in a more westward track (supposing that Canadian HP north of the Great Lakes verifies stronger than forecasted) but also lower amounts as the column is drier than expected. I have more concern with the storm ending up drier than expected. Thoughts?

[jcwxguy]

I do expect models to dry up some as we approach to start of system