The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Alright, I'll bite. First opportunity to have my hopes crushed this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 12z ECMWF EPS Control using 10:1 ratios. Noticing Kuchera totals are a touch higher than 10:1 totals but given this could start out as a rain/snow mix locally a 10:1 average ratio for the event seems pretty fair. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 18z NAM rolling, like the look of the precip shield in ND as it dips out of Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Euro didn’t do so hot for me either with the New Years storm so will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Here ya go KC peeps: Minneapolis, Des Moines and St. Louis are all facing substantial snow accumulations, and Atlanta could pick up its first accumulating snowfall since the winter of 2017-2018. 2 Quote Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 18z NAM rolling, like the look of the precip shield in ND as it dips out of Canada. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Nam looks a little East Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 18z NAM 1 Quote season snowfall: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMoveALot_Weather Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 FGF's take is basically "we don't know" Quote .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 NW flow aloft will persist into the weekend and to next week probably into next month. Weather impacts and challenges in the extended time frame center on clipper system set to move across the northern plains Thursday night into Friday. As the clipper moves through the region from NW to SE a band of snowfall is expected to develop with the highest amounts just east of the track. Ensemble solns showing widespread difference on the placement of the band so sfc low track remains the key to impacts. Where the band does track here is good indications of at least 2 inches, better than 60 percent, with the chance of 6 inches at 25 percent. Winds at this point in time do not look problematic while snow is ongoing but may pick up as the system departs quickly to the southeast Friday afternoon. 1 Quote >1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"), Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7" Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 DMX not getting crazy yet. Saying central and western Iowa should see 3+ inches. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 RGEM - Des Moines seems to be the sweet spot on most models. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 18z NBM (blend of models) 3 Quote Season Snowfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 18z GFS almost a carbon copy of the 12z on placement. Looks wetter though. Quote Season Snowfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Hard to tell if it shifted, but for the most part it's similar, again a little more snow in some areas. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 18z GFS almost a carbon copy of the 12z on placement. Looks wetter though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 If the GFS were to verify almost the entire state of Iowa would have warning criteria snow. Only a few counties along the Mississippi River would likely be advisories instead. But all 99 counties would be likely to have headlines. I hope the Euro starts to cave towards the GFS. Quote Season Snowfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Per this run this is still shifting a tad further west and places KC in the comma. Should be a interesting next couple of days watching models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Hard to tell if it shifted, but for the most part it's similar, again a little more snow in some areas. That's the best run yet for mby out of any model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMoveALot_Weather Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Totals aren't gonna end up being this high. If they are, it'll be in a much narrower band. That's just the name of the game with clippers. 1 Quote >1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"), Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7" Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 18z GEFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 18z Euro increased totals along the Iowa City/CR corridor a little. So maybe just a tick further east. I hope tonight’s runs shift at least 50 miles east. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 18Z Euro Kuchera- still snowing in S.IA into MO. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 here is hr 90 of 18Z Euro-- the farthest out I have access to and I think as far it goes-- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 18z Euro Control and Mean 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Feels like the west shift has settled down a bit. That Euro throws over 6" here. These clippers can dump sometimes! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Would like just little more west shift here 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Winds will be gusting 34-38 on the back side, not blizzard but it will blow the snow around. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: Winds will be gusting 34-38 on the back side, not blizzard but it will blow the snow around. I noticed the isobars looked a bit tighter down that way. The snow should be wetter too. Hopefully it's cold enough up here to fluff it up a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 This looks to be a very potent system. Anyone lands on its bullseye, will score bigly. Good luck to y'all who are in the path of this. 1 1 Quote Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 00Z NAM is going back E... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 00z nam is east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: 00z nam is east Or not? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Central/western Iowa is really looking good. That area hasn't had much snow this season, so they deserve it. I hope the American and Canadian models are right that good snow will make it into eastern Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 00Z nam is juiced- that is not going to happen. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: Or not? Lol It's alot stronger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 3 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Looks a lot like 18z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Trusty 12z Korean model is east, though - there's still hope! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 I found out last minute I have to go to Indianapolis this weekend so Lincoln is golden for this event 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 FWIW, the ICON is farther northeast... although it has been a ne outlier, so it really hasn't changed much. Quote season snowfall: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Canadian models must be having issues today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 RDPS is C.IA dream... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 0z RDPS very similar to the NAM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 The heavy snow band didn't move much on the 00z RDPS, but it did trend toward the UK/Euro and pull back the eastward extent. Cedar Rapids drops a few inches this run. Quote season snowfall: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 As shown above it seems like there's some indication of snow continuing for a relatively long time, but I have to wonder if this ends up incorrect. Recent storms seem to have had Canadian high pressure verify stronger than what forecasts expected, leading to not only suppressed storm systems but also less precipitation overall. Good example is the most recent storm system that tracked from Omaha to Chicago, with the heaviest snow verifying south of forecasts and the northern end of the entire snowfall zone ending up drier than projected IIRC. Not to say this is going to happen here, but if it did, one might think it results in a more westward track (supposing that Canadian HP north of the Great Lakes verifies stronger than forecasted) but also lower amounts as the column is drier than expected. I have more concern with the storm ending up drier than expected. Thoughts? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 I do expect models to dry up some as we approach to start of system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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