Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Jan 14th-16th Potent Hybrid Clipper


Recommended Posts

FGF's take is basically "we don't know"

Quote
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

NW flow aloft will persist into the weekend and to next week
probably into next month. Weather impacts and challenges in the
extended time frame center on clipper system set to move across the
northern plains Thursday night into Friday. As the clipper moves
through the region from NW to SE a band of snowfall is expected to
develop with the highest amounts just east of the track. Ensemble
solns showing widespread difference on the placement of the band so
sfc low track remains the key to impacts. Where the band does track
here is good indications of at least 2 inches, better than 60
percent, with the chance of 6 inches at 25 percent. Winds at this
point in time do not look problematic while snow is ongoing but may
pick up as the system departs quickly to the southeast Friday
afternoon.

 

  • Like 1

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the GFS were to verify almost the entire state of Iowa would have warning criteria snow.  Only a few counties along the Mississippi River would likely be advisories instead.  But all 99 counties would be likely to have headlines.  I hope the Euro starts to cave towards the GFS.  

Season Snowfall: 0.00"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Totals aren't gonna end up being this high. If they are, it'll be in a much narrower band. That's just the name of the game with clippers.

  • Like 1

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Central/western Iowa is really looking good.  That area hasn't had much snow this season, so they deserve it.

I hope the American and Canadian models are right that good snow will make it into eastern Iowa.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, the ICON is farther northeast... although it has been a ne outlier, so it really hasn't changed much.

image.thumb.png.c8d3855847272da41200d9d187a4dcc7.png

season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The heavy snow band didn't move much on the 00z RDPS, but it did trend toward the UK/Euro and pull back the eastward extent.  Cedar Rapids drops a few inches this run.

season snowfall: 10.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As shown above it seems like there's some indication of snow continuing for a relatively long time, but I have to wonder if this ends up incorrect. Recent storms seem to have had Canadian high pressure verify stronger than what forecasts expected, leading to not only suppressed storm systems but also less precipitation overall. Good example is the most recent storm system that tracked from Omaha to Chicago, with the heaviest snow verifying south of forecasts and the northern end of the entire snowfall zone ending up drier than projected IIRC.

Not to say this is going to happen here, but if it did, one might think it results in a more westward track (supposing that Canadian HP north of the Great Lakes verifies stronger than forecasted) but also lower amounts as the column is drier than expected. I have more concern with the storm ending up drier than expected. Thoughts?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...