EURO is one of the members of that suite, so not sure if that's a cave per-se, its just an outlier potentially from the rest of its EPS ensemble buddies

As per Scott Sistek - * European model is still NOT on board with a big windstorm. It has a much weaker storm and non-impactful winds * The American GFS model IS still aggressive but keeps the storm center offshore which would make it worse for the coast and Northwest Interior (60+ mph) and still quite windy for the Seattle area (45-55 but some potential gusts over 60 mph) but not worst case. * The HRRR model which had been a naysayer has now I'd say shifted to the camp and now showing a quick burst of wind around 45-50 mph - so windy but not extreme. * The NAM model is still going extra bonkers as it's been doing since the start with ridiculous wind speeds (the likely source of your social media feed is showing scary wind maps with numbers like 70 mph+ across the region). I would NOT go with the NAM. It tends to overdo storms. * We're still as of 3:30 p.m. under a High Wind Watch that will soon have to get converted to either a High Wind Warning, which would mean forecasts gusts of over 58 mph, or a Wind Advisory like we've had several times this winter and is more like 40-55 mph gusts. * For me, I'm still generally a Team Euro model person so I'm still on the skeptical side, but I'd have to say a storm with gusts of 40-55 mph I think is trending in a likelier direction if we're going to get the winds. * What's just as wild is the storm is moving so fast that models have us back to nearly calm conditions...just a few hours after the storm strikes (if it strikes). The HRRR model has like 53 mph in the City around Noon-2 then has pretty much <10 mph across the entire region by just dinner time. * So best times to travel Wednesday: Before noon, or see if you can shift dinner back a little later and wait to hit the road until after 4 p.m.

Oh boy.... I was pretty close with my prediction!

100% this is what it reminds me of. People will go to remarkable lengths to discount evidence directly in front of them if they think it's too extreme or not the outcome they want. Again, not saying I think a major event is a lock here. But I definitely don't think it's wise to be giving so much credit to the Euro right now.

It is very interesting that the euro at one point showed a strong storm.