TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show. We're well past the "E's" this season... It's Irma. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 We're well past the "E's" this season... It's Irma. In all "fairness" (E) and (I) are very close to each other 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday. Sat - 97Sun - 96Mon - 104Tue - 108Wed - 97 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 In all "fairness" (E) and (I) are very close to each other Yet (I) always follows (H). 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show. *Irma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country... Wheres the model depicting the the weakening ridge out in the Atlantic? In order for Irma to go that far north up the Eastern seaboard, that Atlantic ridge is going to have to decay quite a bit, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 The PDO flipped negative last month according to NOAA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thing is, that trough/ULL has trended NE on most guidance, which changes the orientation of the phase enough that it might send the storm out to sea. The 12z GFS is much farther NE with the trough, perhaps sufficiently enough to boot the storm out. We'll see.Still landfalls on 12z, but have to watch that trough regardless. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday. Today - 96Sat - 97Sun - 96Mon - 102Tue - 108Wed - 98Thinking this will probably bust low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thinking this will probably bust low. Yeah at second look that 96 on Sunday does seem a little low. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 No landfall for Irma on 12z Euro. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here. The possibility is growing, but given the look of both the EPS and GFS ensemble mean, I wouldn't say consensus is there yet. Neither show a major trough, just near normal heights from day 6 on. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday. Sat - 97Sun - 96Mon - 104Tue - 108Wed - 97 Where are you seeing those numbers? I'm seeing 27.4 with an extracted maximum of 103 on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 100 not looking likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Smoke has moved into Eugene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 100 not looking likely. It hasn't looked likely for a few days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 8/31/1987 says we can still hit 102 at this time of year without surface offshore flow...then again, we're running 5 degrees behind 8/31/1987 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Smoke has moved into Eugene. Big time. Our friend Andrew Mork posted this on facebook from Eugene... Severe clear here... no hint of any haze. But we could see the very top of the smoke plume near Ellensburg coming back from Issaquah on I-90 just now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 92 at HIO and KLS. Both might hit 100 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Interestingly, this afternoon's sounding over SLE already showed 24.8C and 595dm heights overhead. Both were higher than modeled for today. Maybe tomorrow will continue the trend...won't take much of a tweak upward to push us into the 98 degree range. Even today, MMV hit 97 and HIO 96. PDX definitely acting like it wants to reach 98...93 @ 3:00 puts us +6 on yesterday, and -4 on 8/31/1987. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wow, 114 at Paso Robles Airport right now. Sitting within 1F of the all-time record. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPRB&num=60&raw=0&banner=off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country... D**n.... Sandy all over again...? 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hit 90 here. You can the smoke/haze in the air in Thorp. Update on Jolly Mt. Fire. http://www.yakimaherald.com/news/local/jolly-mountain-fire-threatens-homes-unhealthy-levels-of-smoke-hit/article_18b774b2-8ff9-11e7-b9a3-37d1ebacbc8d.html Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 92 at HIO and KLS. Both might hit 100 today. Well, I was right about one of them. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KHIO&num=60&raw=0&banner=off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 d**n.... Sandy all over again...?That would be insane! NYC is not prepared for hurricanes like Florida is. It's like NYC having a tornado which you won't find a tornado shelter there. It's been nice here in the mornings. The temps struggled to get much below 70F until about 2am then tumbled to 54F like a cold front came thru. It was a bit on the nippy side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 That would be insane! It's been nice in the mornings. The temps struggled to get much below 70F until about 2am then tumbled to 54F like a cold front came thru. It was a bit on the nippy side.This is so stressful for me. I don't know whether to prepare for 100mph winds or sunny skies. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 That would be insane! NYC is not prepared for hurricanes like Florida is. It's like NYC having a tornado which you won't find a tornado shelter there. It's been nice here in the mornings. The temps struggled to get much below 70F until about 2am then tumbled to 54F like a cold front came thru. It was a bit on the nippy side. Yeah the big issue there is high winds and all those windows in the buildings falling down to the ground. That would be insane if that solution pans out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 OMG..the 18z HWRF takes Irma to 225mph at 874mb. This model nailed Harvey, FWIW, but color me skeptical of this particular solution. If it verifies, though, it'd would be the strongest storm observed in the satellite era to this point. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 OMG..the 18z HWRF takes Irma to 225mph at 874mb. This model nailed Harvey, FWIW, but color me skeptical of this particular solution. If it verifies, though, it'd would be the strongest storm observed in the satellite era to this point.Al Gore warned us. Twice now. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like it's time to start posting on here again. Looks like we might threaten the hottest temps ever recorded in the month of September early next week and then a major cool down to normal or even below by next weekend. The ECMWF has a decent sized area of 0 to +4 850s over Western WA at day 8 or so. Nice to see the models have reverted to cool ENSO for this winter. In other news Irma sure looks ominous for the East Coast. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like it's time to start posting on here again. Looks like we might threaten the hottest temps ever recorded in the month of September early next week and then a major cool down to normal or even below by next weekend. The ECMWF has a decent sized area of 0 to +4 850s over Western WA at day 8 or so. Nice to see the models have reverted to cool ENSO for this winter. In other news Irma sure looks ominous for the East Coast.Jim!!!! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Jim!!!! I can hardly believe I was away for so long. I've been super busy and have gotten bogged down in politics a bit too much. Weather trumps all as we get into fall and winter though! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 I can hardly believe I was away for so long. I've been super busy and have gotten bogged down in politics a bit too much. Weather trumps all as we get into fall and winter though! Bogged down in politics? You mean watching TV and InfoWars with the batshit crazy Alex Jones? It was a goldilocks summer up here... except for the first part of August. July was absolute perfection from start to finish. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Where are you seeing those numbers? I'm seeing 27.4 with an extracted maximum of 103 on Tuesday. WxBell images. Can't access the 12z meteogram now but the 18z is still just as crazy. Surprisingly it verified on the low side today. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Bogged down in politics? You mean watching TV and InfoWars with the batshit crazy Alex Jones? It was a goldilocks summer up here... except for the first part of August. July was absolute perfection from start to finish.And heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 And heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go...Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees Actually he brought up politics. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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