Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Winterdog]

This model riding is a cruel mistress indeed.  She beckons us from afar, moves us closer and closer then harshly brushes us off only to glance at us seductively once again as she turns away.  At the end of the dance she is ours, quaking within our arms, she is everything we want, then she's gone, gone with the warmth of a southwest flow.

[El_Nina]

Got a couple nice downpours that formed overhead and even dropped some hail. Picked up 0.44" from that so far today.

Ended December with 6.85"

[Omegaraptor]

PDX got to 55.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The 12z Japanese is joining up with the American. Small victory

The Icon looked similar to at hour 180, though it doesn't show 500 mb anomalies, but the actual heights looked similar to the 12Z GFS at hour 180

[TigerWoodsLibido]

53F in Springfield, Corvallis, and Monmouth with showers.

[ShawniganLake]

The Icon looked similar to at hour 180, though it doesn't show 500 mb anomalies, but the actual heights looked similar to the 12Z GFS at hour 180

[Deweydog]

My

Little

Kitty

[TT-SEA]

The even less cited ICON being cited now.

[FroYoBro]

PDX got to 55.

 

Yep, actually a nice day.

 

Feels weird out there for January 1st.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The even less cited ICON being cited now.

People always cite the ICON whenever it looks good.  Then its a great model.  If not, its junk.  

[TT-SEA]

People always cite the ICON whenever it looks good.  Then its a great model.  If not, its junk.  

 

Yep.

[snow_wizard]

I probably failed to clarify my feelings about all of this earlier.  In the nut shell it sucks to be super excited about a coming event and then come on here and see nothing but negativity.  I'll be back when it's abundantly obvious the good stuff is coming to where people will actually believe it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is cool and then drops the arctic hammer mid-month.

 

[umadbro]

I probably failed to clarify my feelings about all of this earlier. In the nut shell it sucks to be super excited about a coming event and then come on here and see nothing but negativity. I'll be back when it's abundantly obvious the good stuff is coming to where people will actually believe it.

The hilariousness of this group is my favorite thing of all the things.

[GHweatherChris]

I probably failed to clarify my feelings about all of this earlier. In the nut shell it sucks to be super excited about a coming event and then come on here and see nothing but negativity. I'll be back when it's abundantly obvious the good stuff is coming to where people will actually believe it.

We just want to see something in the believable range, which isn't happening currently, but take your toys if you must and go.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I probably failed to clarify my feelings about all of this earlier.  In the nut shell it sucks to be super excited about a coming event and then come on here and see nothing but negativity.  I'll be back when it's abundantly obvious the good stuff is coming to where people will actually believe it.

 

I feel like this place has been fairly positive the past few days. Something is brewing for the 10-20th. 

[TT-SEA]

I probably failed to clarify my feelings about all of this earlier.  In the nut shell it sucks to be super excited about a coming event and then come on here and see nothing but negativity.  I'll be back when it's abundantly obvious the good stuff is coming to where people will actually believe it.

 

 

You did not fail to clarify anything.   You made it abundantly clear.   We have seen this many times before with you.   It might work out... but people will wait and see.

[FroYoBro]

I probably failed to clarify my feelings about all of this earlier.  In the nut shell it sucks to be super excited about a coming event and then come on here and see nothing but negativity.  I'll be back when it's abundantly obvious the good stuff is coming to where people will actually believe it.

 

I don't think people are being overly negative about our chances. People are excited about the potential. There is just too much model noise to be super excited already for something that far out. 

 

Everyone is waiting just like you. 

[Brennan]

This area is a long way but is so beautiful and there is very few people. Sometimes snow is deep and some years not so much. Only about 6 inches right now at 3500 feet but sometimes it's 3 feet. Gets very cold in this part of the world and if you like to hunt this area is incredible.

sent u a PM

[jakerepp]

I don't think people are being overly negative about our chances. People are excited about the potential. There is just too much model noise to be super excited already for something that far out.

 

Everyone is waiting just like you.

We literally just had the rug pulled out from underneath us the other day. I think skepticism is fine.

[Deweydog]

Psycho...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Exactly. Models cannot nail down details this far out. There will probably be something interesting, but the potential is too far out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty solid CFS run in progress. 

[snow_wizard]

I feel like this place has been fairly positive the past few days. Something is brewing for the 10-20th. 

 

All I'm seeing ignoring the obvious good signs and harping on one run that isn't quite perfect.  In the end we will all be happy and I will be proven right.  People that really know me know not to doubt when I'm this sure.

[GHweatherChris]

All I'm seeing ignoring the obvious good signs and harping on one run that isn't quite perfect. In the end we will all be happy and I will be proven right. People that really know me know not to doubt when I'm this sure.

You have been "this" sure many times before, what's the difference this time? What are you gonna do if it doesn't work out? Disappear for months again probably....

[snow_wizard]

Exactly. Models cannot nail down details this far out. There will probably be something interesting, but the potential is too far out. 

 

There are things other than models.  People seem to forget that.  This is one where people will just have to see it I guess.  It's not like it's been that hard to get cold weather here in recent years either.

[snow_wizard]

You have been "this" sure many times before, what's the difference this time? What are you gonna do if it doesn't work out? Disappear for months again probably....

 

Let's just agree to ignore each other.

[GHweatherChris]

Let's just agree to ignore each other.

But I am supposed to agree amd comply, what a conundrum!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Prairiedog]

Cleaning up the political posts later unless another mod wants to do it.

It's at least better having to remove a few posts about politics than removing a particular person who has always made rude disrespectful jokes about women and then turns to race as his way to trash up this forum.  Glad you took care of that! Hope it's a permanent thing. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

There is not one person in this forum who would be surprised if there was at least a decent cold/snow event in January.   There is only one person who would be surprised if it doesn't happen.

[GHweatherChris]

There is not one person in this forum who would be surprised if there was at least a decent cold/snow event in January. There is only one person who would be surprised if it doesn't happen.

Perfectly said!

[TT-SEA]

There are things other than models. People seem to forget that. This is one where people will just have to see it I guess. It's not like it's been that hard to get cold weather here in recent years either.

Just be enthusiastic and stop demanding compliance. There is a good chance you will be right. But you have been wrong many times when you were 100% absolutely sure and then you have completely melted down. How do you not remember all those times?

[luvssnow_spokane]

To not ignore my reasoning why we are going to get nailed.

What the hell is wrong with people being cautiously optimistic?  Please explain.

 

Do you forget how many meltdowns you have had when it does not work out after you say it is a slam dunk, and it will happen? I feel like you do not remember that. Your nearly narcissistic approach that we should believe you and we should accept you word is just ridiculous!! NO ONE is trying to tell you it will not happen, as it very well could, BUT reading the tea leaves on 10 day out patterns is no freaking slam dunk. If you want to be 100% sure then go for it, but you have been wrong many, many times, as have all of us. So, let those that want to step back in a wait and see mode do so, that is NOT negative - THAT my friend is wisdom based on experience. 

 

I am feeling very good about the potential myself!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are things other than models.  People seem to forget that.  This is one where people will just have to see it I guess.  It's not like it's been that hard to get cold weather here in recent years either.

 

I am pretty confident we will see some cool weather and probably lowland snow this month. I think there is a pretty good chance it gets pretty snowy. Especially for my location and places north of Seattle down to sea level. I am not confident about arctic air. I think Justin may be on the right track in thinking snow at most airport locations, but no true arctic air. And considering January since 1982 that would seem a smart bet. 

[Deweydog]

All I'm seeing ignoring the obvious good signs and harping on one run that isn't quite perfect. In the end we will all be happy and I will be proven right. People that really know me know not to doubt when I'm this sure.

Everyone here seems to tap dance around you like it’s the ultimate politically-incorrect move to just call you out for what you’re doing. You’re being a straight up d*ck. Trust me, I have plenty of experience and am a subject matter expert.

 

Everyone knows you think it’s coming. Get over yourself, let it play out and we’ll all see soon enough.

 

You could also probably do yourself a favor and lay out instructively exactly what your beyond-the-models rationale is. You’re making a lot of arrogant claims, back it up with some substance. It’s certainly got to go well beyond “it was cold in October.”

[Front Ranger]

I hate to be the extrapolater guy... but the ECMWF loop makes me think it's about to get much better after day 10. I expect the EPS will show that.

 

It's freeing. Don't ever shy away.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Everyone here seems to tap dance around you like it’s the ultimate politically-incorrect move to just call you out for what you’re doing. You’re being a straight up d*ck. Trust me, I have plenty of experience and am a subject matter expert.

 

Everyone knows you think it’s coming. Get over yourself, let it play out and we’ll all see soon enough.

 

You could also probably do yourself a favor and lay out instructively exactly what your beyond-the-models rationale is. You’re making a lot of arrogant claims, back it up with some substance. It’s certainly got to go well beyond “it was cold in October.”

 

Pretty much this.

 

Jim is well respected, deservedly so, but no one should get a free pass on this kind of behavior.

[TT-SEA]

Jim is already gone and will never see Matt's post.   It will be buried when he comes back telling us how stupid we were for doubting him.