October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I think the trough could carve out and allow for good amount of over-water trajectory and moisture.

I assume you're talking about the ECMWF solution.  It could as the block evolves.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I assume you're talking about the ECMWF solution.  It could as the block evolves.

Yes sir. Looks like Winter pattern.

[snow_wizard]

Impressive EPS run.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Impressive EPS run.

Yeah. I'd say so. The Triple Nina awakens!

[The Blob]

I have the ac on because my husband hasn't fixed the screen yet for our room. I could be enjoying 56° air right now. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F and smoke is cleared now. Much nicer out there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN. Good start to the regular season incoming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Does not look like this will end up like 2012 or 2016. 

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with a total surprise 0.25" last night and now crystal clear and 46.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

With this much model support it would be pretty amazing to have it fall through.  Late October seems like about as far as things could go without something happening.

Yes, that’s the climo aspect: this sort of clown range is more believable than an arctic blast in the clown range, because a forecast that predicts what are basically climo norms is more believable than one that predicts a huge departure from them. That is what I was going on in mid-September when clown range was showing a pattern change around the beginning of this month. It didn’t happen.

I will feel more optimistic when the forecast gets within five days.

[TacomaWx]

46 in Tacoma coldest we’ve been since June might drop a little lower in the next hour. Didn’t get any rain overnight. Just passing ellensburg on my way to west Yellowstone. Gonna be a long day on the road. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with a total surprise 0.25" last night and now crystal clear and 46.

ECMWF showed rain in south King County last night for many runs.   But that is an impressive total.   Barely enough to wet the ground here yesterday evening.  

[TacomaWx]

Nice sunrise in vantage this morning (I’m not driving). 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN. Good start to the regular season incoming.

wood

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah. I'd say so. The Triple Nina awakens!

Isn't a cold spell in late October a hallmark of Ninos?   

I have no idea what this winter will be like... but it sure has seemed Nino-ish since June.

[Meatyorologist]

06z has an incredibly long stretch of us being under a strong jet; 100+ hours. Would be funny to go from a completely dead Pacific to one of the most potent Oct cold zonal setups in recent memory.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice sunrise in vantage this morning (I’m not driving). 

Bozeman by dinner!    That is about where we are at when the sun is rising on our drive to Minnesota each year and its late afternoon when we roll through Bozeman.   We can usually make it to Billings for late dinner (around 8 p.m.) and then we are in Minnesota by dawn the next morning.

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z has an incredibly long stretch of us being under a strong jet; 100+ hours. Would be funny to go from a completely dead Pacific to one of the most potent Oct cold zonal setups in recent memory.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bozeman by dinner!    That is about where we are at when the sun is rising on our drive to Minnesota each year and its late afternoon when we roll through Bozeman.   We can usually make it to Billings for late dinner (around 8 p.m.) and then we are in Minnesota by dawn the next morning.

From what I remember, Bozeman is not all that far from West Yellowstone. He seems on track to do a late check-in in West Yellowstone tonight. Personally, I prefer to split the drive there into several days so I can dawdle on the way, but then again that was when I was between jobs and had the time to dawdle.

[GobBluth]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z has an incredibly long stretch of us being under a strong jet; 100+ hours. Would be funny to go from a completely dead Pacific to one of the most potent Oct cold zonal setups in recent memory.

That's how you swing a record warm month back to normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Wouldnt that be a blessing.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From what I remember, Bozeman is not all that far from West Yellowstone. He seems on track to do a late check-in in West Yellowstone tonight. Personally, I prefer to split the drive there into several days so I can dawdle on the way, but then again that was when I was between jobs and had the time to dawdle.

We’re just planning on punching through with minimal stop time. I’m guessing sometime around 5pm we will be there. If I had more time for this trip I would’ve split the drive into 2 days…am gonna do that on the way home. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From what I remember, Bozeman is not all that far from West Yellowstone. He seems on track to do a late check-in in West Yellowstone tonight. Personally, I prefer to split the drive there into several days so I can dawdle on the way, but then again that was when I was between jobs and had the time to dawdle.

He is about 9 hours from West Yellowstone now.   If they just plow through they should arrive around 5 p.m. MDT.

[RentonHill]

Daily wildlife update: kitty

 

[LowerGarfield]

13 hours ago, The Blob said:

I'm in the Procurement department so I get down time to be on here for all the late night fighting.

Fun. Should you have questions about Open Enrollment  or medical claims with Blue Cross I'm your guy lol but I'm getting promoted next week so no more Amazon  or Microsoft after tomorrow. is procurement always busy given how many offices owned by Amazon? How's the smoke at your location with the fire across the river? 

[Cloud]

Wow. The dry streak ended at SEA. Picked up 0.01” overnight. It would’ve been quite an incredible streak if this didn’t happen 

[MossMan]

44!

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Weenies have some ugly a** feet.

A strange bunch indeed

Pavement remained dry here except for areas the sprinkler hit 

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

That's how you swing a record warm month back to +2.3.

ftfy

[Blizzard777]

56 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

46 in Tacoma coldest we’ve been since June might drop a little lower in the next hour. Didn’t get any rain overnight. Just passing ellensburg on my way to west Yellowstone. Gonna be a long day on the road. 

Enjoy and pull off for ice cream on occasion! 
Sitting at my low of 44*

[Rubus Leucodermis]

46˚F. Coldest so far, but it’s merely just slightly warmer than normal rather than ridiculously so.

[The Blob]

24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Fun. Should you have questions about Open Enrollment  or medical claims with Blue Cross I'm your guy lol but I'm getting promoted next week so no more Amazon  or Microsoft after tomorrow. is procurement always busy given how many offices owned by Amazon? How's the smoke at your location with the fire across the river? 

I'm in a FC so we're unloading the trailers and pulling pallets of boxes for packing. I'm personally not a fan of either insurance offered in Oregon and wish we had Kaiser.

 

In not sure how the smoke is as it is my weekend. 

[FroYoBro]

A normal fall morning feels frigid.

[ShawniganLake]

A seasonable low of 43F this morning.  
 

Just looking through the record highs for the next week or so and I see a couple in the 60s and nothing above 75.  We could be close to a record pretty much every day for the next week starting tomorrow. 

[Doinko]

33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ftfy

October is running +8.5 at PDX so far. And we could hit 85 again.

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ftfy

Yeah zero chance this month ends up anywhere near average out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

October is running +8.5 at PDX so far. And we could hit 85 again.

Unreal. Could be one of if not the most anomalously warm month on record. Obviously all time warm October is a LOCK. 

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

October is running +8.5 at PDX so far. And we could hit 85 again.

If Oct runs negative at PDX come the end of Haloween, I will chop off all my toes.

[RentonHill]

22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If Oct runs negative at PDX come the end of Haloween, I will chop off all my toes.

How about a foot pic? How do we know you even got toes??

[Phishy Wx]

Augtober gunna Augtober