Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Day 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 hours ago, Nov1985 said: Exactly. All the impactful events seem to have a lot of uncertainty. And the sure things seem to go bust. The best hints seem to reveal themselves 72 - 84 hours out. Even Feb 2019 had some doubts the night before those six snowfalls over 10 days... I can't agree with this enough. Often I laugh at the posts that foretell weeks of doom and "winter cancel", only to have "winter back on the table" in the next set of runs. We almost never know what's gonna happen next week verbatim, especially so when any cold air is involved. Best to just enjoy the ride and stay real. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 56 minutes ago, Cloud said: I was up for this. Wow, talk about a BAD BEAT and arguably the biggest upset in WC history. Wow! Can I ask a favor? Any chance we can keep the WC talk on these early matches to a minimum? I'm one of the few "'Muricans" that loves soccer and will be trying to watch every match...also a weather and love tracking stuff on this board.. TIA!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Northwest Territories bless us with an open conduit on this run 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said: Looks like Maine or NH There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs. 5 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 The “winter cancel” followed by “this is going to be January 1950/1969 redux!” Is just like the cryptosphere. Bitcoin is going to zero!! Two days later, 100k by end of year!!! in all seriousness, my expectations are super high this winter, all things considered. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Right on schedule 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 It’s coming. 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 35 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I'm surprised you're the only one who mentioned the 06z GFS. It's the first run I've seen so far that actually made me a bit excited. Looks like snow and sustained cold even if most of the snow is at the very end of the run. 4 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, Kayla said: There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs. Yea I kinda thought your photo reminded me more of the intermountain west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BLI snowman Posted November 22, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 (edited) FYI that early December timing for snow or cold is usually a very good sign historically for follow-up cold airmasses during the winter. 2016, 2013, 1992, 1972, 1971, 1956, 1932, 1922, 1909, 1880 to name some prominent ones. Couple of exceptions may be 1980 and 2009. But the December 1980 event really petered out south of Whatcom County and 2009-10 was a strong El Nino. And even Ninos like 1972-73 and 1994-95 that delivered early December events also had nice follow-up airmasses later on. Edited November 22, 2022 by BLI snowman 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just turned on the Christmas channel…It’s coming. 6 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 GEM 850s 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Up to .15” on the day, 6.13” for the month, 45.76” for the year. 45 degrees. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Woo boy. Idk about this 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: GEM 850s Great GEM run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Woo boy. Idk about this Cold enough too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Clown range GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Please forgive my novice brain (or stupidity) is that indicating it's going to be 5*F in Olympia? Am I reading that correctly or nah? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, Doinko said: Clown range GFS! KONA LOW ftw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 GEFS: GFS: Ensembles look better with that trough farther east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, Everleigh said: Please forgive my novice brain (or stupidity) is that indicating it's going to be 5*F in Olympia? Am I reading that correctly or nah? since its a 264hr GFS surface temp map, the only thing its indicating is that it WONT be 5f in Olympia at this time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Everleigh said: Please forgive my novice brain (or stupidity) is that indicating it's going to be 5*F in Olympia? Am I reading that correctly or nah? Below zero just south of Olympia. FYI Do not take GFS surface temps seriously in the long range. Really nice improvement on the 6Z GEFS this morning. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Everleigh Posted November 22, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: since its a 264hr GFS surface temp map, the only thing its indicating is that it WONT be 5f in Olympia at this time And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Going to be gone from the 29th to the 4th, hope I don't miss all the snow. Also look at that one member 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 GEFS looks good, mean drops to -5.0c in Portland. The 06z was showing -4.9c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Everleigh said: And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. Thank you for asking that. I've wondered about that as well. Like they used to say in class. If one person has a question, odds are there are others too. 4 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Everleigh said: And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. Please accept my apologies - that wasnt my intent and you are absolutely correct. Not every post needs a snarky/sarcastic response and I can do better. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Please accept my apologies - that wasnt my intent and you are absolutely correct. Not every post needs a snarky/sarcastic response and I can do better. Thank you. I appreciate that! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Everleigh said: And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. I don't think it was meant to be rude or anything, just making fun of the GFS. And some subzero temps in SW WA too! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Everleigh said: And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. Yes. You were reading the map correctly. Sometimes it is difficult to know if you are looking at surface maps vs upper level maps and actual temps vs anomalies. Don’t be discouraged to ask questions. Most people on here have learned their weather knowledge from this very forum. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 me right now waiting for the 12z Euro to keep up the good vibes 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Yes. You were reading the map correctly. Sometimes it is difficult to know if you are looking at surface maps vs upper level maps and actual temps vs anomalies. Don’t be discouraged to ask questions. Most people on here have learned their weather knowledge from this very forum. This forum has been really helpful. I had no idea how to read any maps less than a year ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Randyc321 said: Didn't you used to be a positive, kind of excitable poster? Your posts are fairly grim lately Nah I like to be positive and I am feeling really positive about this winter actually. I just know at some point our really good run is gonna end too. I try to balance positivity with reality. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Joe Bastardi in their premium section is showing maps of the Weeklies control run to dream of a white christmas for the east coast 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Thank you for asking that. I've wondered about that as well. Like they used to say in class. If one person has a question, odds are there are others too. You were reading the map correctly. It’s just that the GFS tends to way overdo the cold air advection into the western lowlands when cold snaps are being modeled. It often calls for historically cold readings (that almost never materialize). It’s one of the reasons why we give it the “goofus” nickname. That said, it is also often the model that is the first to pick up on a coming cold spell. So it’s not totally useless; it just needs to be interpreted and not taken at face value. It's one of the reasons why model output is called model guidance and not model forecasts. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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