Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. Ehhh...Seattle on average hits its minimum high and low temperatures before astronomical winter starts so might as well go by the meteorological definitions. No one thinks March 20th is still winter, but a lot of people think December 20th is. 5 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)  Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)  Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)  Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)  Avg Yearly Precip: 37"  10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. I don't like that. The first day of winter needs to be the start of meteorological winter. 2 1  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Does pivotal have any long range models like weeklies? You’d still want to go to WBx for these. Pivotal Plus is still limited to states zoom, this does include EPS and GEFS, 18z euro access and soundings, and NWS Blend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Strong east wind and cold highs   Ya just beat me to it, and thanks outstanding. Yep! Intense low level blast! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Ya just beat me to it, and thanks outstanding. Yep! Intense low level blast! Those two ridges look primed to merge and drop another very cold trough on the NW in the clown range too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Winter starts on December 1st on this forum. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Still too early for me to hop on the believe train but nice to see things are still looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off.  It’s that famous terrain bleed from the nearby mountains. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 In the 00Z this Wednesday evening low stalls/wobbles a bit around the Olympics before crossing too far north for snow for most of Puget Sound. Will be a track to watch if it stays in future models runs. If could be fun if it moves slow and stays west and south. 7 Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Ehhh...Seattle on average hits its minimum high and low temperatures before astronomical winter starts so might as well go by the meteorological definitions. No one thinks March 20th is still winter, but a lot of people think December 20th is. The coldest day used to be January 18th. The stuff in recent years has really skewed that. With all of these cold Februarys recently the date will probably start to get later again. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 GEFS down to -7.9 for the 28th now 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Still too early for me to hop on the believe train but nice to see things are still looking good. The MJO wave has made me have more faith in this one happening. 7 almost always gets us cold. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Still too early for me to hop on the believe train but nice to see things are still looking good. I’m all in! We are set! 4 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: GEFS down to -7.9 for the 28th now Just amazing how the models keep trending colder and longer with this. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: In the 00Z this Wednesday evening low stalls/wobbles a bit around the Olympics before crossing too far north for snow for most of Puget Sound. Will be a track to watch if it stays in future models runs. If could be fun if it moves slow and stays west and south. Tons of chances with this. Reloads always present two possibilities for snow as well as the chance with the initial cold shot. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. Meteorological winter starts in 9 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Not bad. GEFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The MJO wave has made me have more faith in this one happening. 7 almost always gets us cold. The overall pattern and cold air getting into BC seems pretty likely at this point…but still a lot of model volatility right now. Some of the models just don’t show the cold air punching in yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Ryan Maue used to post time series charts of "model skill" charts on twitter, so you can see how well the models are doing over time. Model skill is some index of how well predictions match observations. Would be cool if someone could track model skill for this region in particular.  Maue = barf 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This is looking serious now. You mean cereal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Lots of GEFS members just keep getting colder after the first shot 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 We could be in for a long wild ride this winter. The blocking is off the charts this season. 5 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: The overall pattern and cold air getting into BC seems pretty likely at this point…but still a lot of model volatility right now. Some of the models just don’t show the cold air punching in yet. They did the same thing last December also on holding back the cold until the event got relatively close. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m all in! We are set! Did you say wet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Winter starts on December 1st on this forum. Might actually  9 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: In the 00Z this Wednesday evening low stalls/wobbles a bit around the Olympics before crossing too far north for snow for most of Puget Sound. Will be a track to watch if it stays in future models runs. If could be fun if it moves slow and stays west and south. Nov 2010 vibes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:  Maue = barf I remember there is something about the guy people don't like, but I can't remember what it is.  1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: They did the same thing last December also on holding back the cold until the event got relatively close. Yeah, not saying it won’t happen. The potential is there. I just still have January 2020 PTSD and keep my hopes in check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Looks like the GFS settles into a cold/dry offshore flow pattern later on. Classic behavior in our coldest winters. 5 1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Yeah, not saying it won’t happen. The potential is there. I just still have January 2020 PTSD and keep my hopes in check. I get it. On the other hand the models are really pouring it on now. We are in the home stretch on the first shot. GEM is totally on board with the first cold shot, but not the subsequent cold. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Places that have snow on the ground could have some really cold temps if this run verifies. Sadly we will have no idea who will do well with snow for days yet. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like the GFS settles into a cold/dry offshore flow pattern later on. Classic behavior in our coldest winters. Looks dry after hour 260ish. Would like to get at least 2-4 inches before we go into an extended cold pattern but we’ll see!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Man GEFS is good. It never overdoes the cold…right???? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Another thing to really like about the models right now is a big fat SE ridge has come into the picture. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Man GEFS is good. It never overdoes the cold…right???? Not nearly as often as the operational. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like the GFS settles into a cold/dry offshore flow pattern later on. Classic behavior in our coldest winters. Meanwhile... Cold is great but we need precip too! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 We end with a rain/snow mix at hour 384 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 GEFS is cold. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: We end with a rain/snow mix at hour 384 Are you sure? Hour 384 is bone dry on what I'm looking at. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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