SnowWillarrive Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Total looks good for the Puget Sound….. one or two more runs and this is cold rain 2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: 52 consecutive hours of snowfall around Seattle? I think this fcst will see some more tweaks over the next 4 days. The all time greats thread a fine line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: And yet its actually snowier for many places. How do you think people should interpret this post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 A December 2016 repeat would be nice... 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 On the bright side, healthier ridge by Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said: How do you think people should interpret this post? I have literally no idea how to interpret any of it... and no idea what will happen. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Wonder where Jim went. Must be tabulating his stats showing the dramatic cooling trends this century. 1 2 2 1 1 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I will say it appears lack of moisture won't be a problem. That is about all I know. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 34 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Dude that was just as brutal as 2005. I was 10 years old at the time and literally in tears when that went south as a kid. Now that I’m older I don’t let the model busts affect me nearly as much However of course it’s always disappointing when things go bad. I believe January 2011 was when Tim went all in and told everyone at his wife’s business party that we were facing a January 1950 redux…Then it all fell apart and his wife made him sleep in the second crappier shed. 6 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6 Wow. Can you access that on WB? 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 That low early next week looks to go way north 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6 Do you have a close up? Looks good for my area but I am also looking at Cabo and Hawaii so it’s hard to tell. Edited November 26, 2022 by MossMan 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I have literally no idea how to interpret any of it... and no idea what will happen. You misunderstood my question. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Wonder where Jim went. Must be tabulating his stats showing the dramatic cooling trends this century. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Wow. Can you access that on WB? I don't think so. I've only seen it on weathermodels. Brian might know more he's the one that pointed it out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The pattern being shown really isn’t that bad. Chilly. We could do a whole lot worse. For reference check out the last week of November/first few days of December last year. 5 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I believe January 2011 was when Tim went all in and told everyone at his wife’s business party that we were facing a January 1950 redux…Then it all fell apart and his wife made him sleep in the second crappier shed. LOL. I don't remember that but I trust your memory way more than mine! 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The block simply migrated too far west and took on an unfavorable tilt positioned just west of ~160 W. That would work if it were at ~145-150 W probably, but not when its over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 New GFS might make this place kinda boring. We’ll need more memes. 2 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 It's not all bad news. There is a a lot of mountain snow and California sees nice relief with rain and good Sierra snows. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The pattern being shown really isn’t that bad. Chilly. We could do a whole lot worse. For reference check out the last week of November/first few days of December last year. Oh like when we hit 66 up here on December 1st and like pretty much every station east of the cascades set all time record highs? 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The pattern being shown really isn’t that bad. Chilly. We could do a whole lot worse. For reference check out the last week of November/first few days of December 2005. Edited November 26, 2022 by Deweydog 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6 That would make more sense. -2 to -4 850Ts can't usually sustain prolonged and moderate snowfalls around Seattle. -4 to -2 in the picture Wed night in this run. Still that low could be gone next run, and/or big high pressure over southern BC keeps coming and going. We should all log off and check back late Sunday night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Do you have a close up? Looks good for my area but I am also looking at Cabo and Hawaii so it’s hard to tell. Unfortunately no. West coast is the best they have for now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I don't think so. I've only seen it on weathermodels. Brian might know more he's the one that pointed it out Correct. The only views they have that would show the PNW are North America, the U.S. and the West Coast. You can enlarge the image a bit on the phone but not helpful for any details. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Wonder where Jim went. Must be tabulating his stats showing the dramatic cooling trends this century. He’s gonna lose his sh$t when he comes back on and sees that everyone isn’t positive. Come on guys, let’s put together a little holiday cheer just for him. 1 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, MossMan said: Do you have a close up? Looks good for my area but I am also looking at Cabo and Hawaii so it’s hard to tell. Zoom zoom zoom. Looks like Everett north get some. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Correct. The only views they have that would show the PNW are North America, the U.S. and the West Coast. You can enlarge the image a bit on the phone but not helpful for any details. Incorrect. I found a way to see it by states. Where you see GFS 16.3, click on USA instead of North America and it let's you zoom into any state. Tonight's 0Z 18z 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 00z GEFS Day 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I’m leaving for @AlTahoe on Sunday. I can fit 7 uncomfortably and you can only bring what’s on your back. I’ll pay half gas. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 (edited) Of course models change and it they could change again (though the current GFS is great for my area, but I like to see everyone else get snow). But this is why you don't see the NWS or the TV Mets making big time snow and cold forecasts 5-7 days in advance. Some people here are way too critical of them for not making cold and snowy forecasts that far in advance. And I can't blame the Mets for being conservative. Edited November 26, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 What number of cancels we are at today? We have to get minimum 3 per day 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, MWG said: What number of cancels we are at today? We have to get minimum 3 per day I think 16 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Wow this has gotten complicated all of a sudden. 1 4 2 3 1 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Wow this has gotten complicated all of a sudden. That's one way of putting it. 6z NAM in 2 hours 44 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I’m going to officially call it. Fall cancel. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: I think 16 That's a record! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Turns out the operational is an absolute warm outlier in the ensemble on this run after the first cold shot which is pretty much a lock now. Why couldn't this stay cut and dried for once. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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