Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Trending quite a bit colder at Day 7 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 In the last 3 days alone the models have shown Tahoe getting 60" of snow, zero snow but cold, no snow but a warm tropical rain storm, and finally multiple cold snow storms for next week. Safe to say the details are probably going to change for everyone a few more times 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Ensemble mean trend through Friday night 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Maybe 00z runs tonight will be mildly interesting. Cautiously optimistic. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Maybe 00z runs tonight will be mildly interesting. Cautiously optimistic. I expect an exquisite night shift later on!!! No, I demand it!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Good Morning! what did I miss? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 GEFS 4" 24-hr snowfall probabilities for Seattle area peak on Wednesday. And even some decent chances for an inch of something cold and wet this coming Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Arctic air be like all your arctic air are belong to BC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I would definitely take the 18z. A bunch of sloppy snow/rain up here tomorrow night and a possible snow chance next week with lots of days right around freezing. Looks great! 4 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Watching this frame for the NW interior. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brennan said: Watching this frame for the NW interior. Some nice banding over here. One of those days where a few bands march from north to south down the Hwy 97 corridor and drop a half inch to inch apiece. I'm good with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: I would definitely take the 18z. A bunch of sloppy snow/rain up here tomorrow night and a possible snow chance next week with lots of days right around freezing. Looks great! Agreed. This looks fine for some normal life disruption next week. Not -17C 850T or -7°F in Everett. The way the models have been overplaying cold 7 or 10 days out in recent years has made the recent events feel anticlimactic in the days leading up to the first snow. But this could be the 4th winter in a row with heavy snow IMBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Well it looks like we still have no idea what’s going on 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 well at least it's getting snowier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: Well it looks like we still have no idea what’s going on Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Itd be hilarious if the older GFS/GEFS turned out to be closest on the details but with a totally different pattern in the upper levels than it originally showed 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Nov1985 said: Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out. Wouldn't that sort of ruin this part of the process though? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, T-Town said: Wouldn't that sort of ruin this part of the process though? Ya, I'd have to spend time with my wife instead I guess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out. seems it's gotten worse than a decade ago? idk might be imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, T-Town said: Wouldn't that sort of ruin this part of the process though? If models were exactly what was going to happen then it would be no fun at all. I wish we still had to look outside and watch our thermometer/humidity/barometer. Those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out. It wouldn’t be nearly as much fun on the forum though. 4 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: seems it's gotten worse than a decade ago? idk might be imagining things. They were sure spot on back in December 2008! Perhaps we need to bring the good old MRF back! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The snowfall forecast for the lowlands beyond 24hrs isn't any better now than it was in 1990. There's definitely other areas that have advanced a bunch but with winter weather it's no better. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: They were sure spot on back in December 2008! Perhaps we need to bring the good old MRF back! A broken clock. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 What is the GLAAM showing though? Everything rides on it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 18z New GFS, Day 10 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: 18z New GFS, Day 10 That is real crap. If that verifies then we can trust nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Pricey! Inflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I could get used to seeing this the remainder of the Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deweydog Posted November 26, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The snowfall forecast for the lowlands beyond 24hrs isn't any better now than it was in 1990. There's definitely other areas that have advanced a bunch but with winter weather it's no better. Modeling has improved drastically since 1990. It’s not even debatable. With that, snowfall forecasting has improved dramatically, but so have our expectations, accessibility and the sheer volume of information. It’s now like drinking from a firehose. 13 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Very mild out ahead of tonight’s front. Breezy and low 50s here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 We didn't have the HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR in 1990. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Terreboner said: That is real crap. If that verifies then we can trust nothing. GFS gets an upgrade and nothings changed. What it gives one run, takes away the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I could get used to seeing this the remainder of the Winter. #LaNinaInfraredLoop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Good take from the Seattle Weather Blog! 3 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: GFS gets an upgrade and nothings changed. What it gives one run, takes away the next. What some consider an upgrade, others consider a downgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The snowfall forecast for the lowlands beyond 24hrs isn't any better now than it was in 1990. There's definitely other areas that have advanced a bunch but with winter weather it's no better. I would say there's been a noticeable improvement in non-borderline setups, even within the last couple of years. If I remember correctly, the snowfall forecasts for last December after the cold air was in place weren't too bad. The problem is most of the time we get most of our snow in borderline setups and those are still kind of a toss up. But I think that if you took an average of the snow forecast by different model runs "x days" before, you'd probably still see an improvement over the last couple decades. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlz Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 So I bought this for nothing 1 2 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Wow... Beavers. Even if they lose they still made it a great game. 28 unanswered points! 2 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Wow... Beavers. Even if they lose they still made it a great game. 28 unanswered points! How difficult is it for you to keep your off topic tweets out of this thread? 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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