snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: That winter had its moments here. Besides the excellent Nov and Feb events we narrowly missed getting crushed in January. This one looks like a once in decade winter for blocking. We shall see I guess. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 12z Euro/EPS is always more generous. 00z is the drunk uncle, but not the good kind. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Good. -NAO tends to occur in tandem with -PNA. Particularly good for precip/storminess. Less of a N/S gradient. Yeah....I believed the myth of -NAO being bad for us for a long time. Maybe there was just a run of winters where that happened to be true and a lot of people kind of got the wrong idea. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: 12z Euro/EPS is always more generous. 00z is the drunk uncle, but not the good kind. Weird that there is a consistent pattern. Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'll be shocked if you only get 2 inches. I mean really astounded. The EPS is only showing 2" but the OP is showing more than 12". The GFS shows higher totals but it's the GFS. Opportunities galore for the next couple weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Currently 46F and cloudy. The NWS here has been putting snow in the forecast then taking it off lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 High boom or bust scenario for Southern King County….. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, Deweydog said: My daughter just walked in the room and said ALMOST exactly the same thing. its like that Cooper Manning 'charades' commercial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, MWG said: Currently 46F and cloudy. The NWS here has been putting snow in the forecast then taking it off lol. Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Time will tell 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Maybe Maybe not Time will tell I think the mood of the forums it's spreading to the NWS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah....I believed the myth of -NAO being bad for us for a long time. Maybe there was just a run of winters where that happened to be true and a lot of people kind of got the wrong idea. It's definitely not bad for the PNW, but it's also debatable how good it is. Lots of big events/winters that did not have much -NAO. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Thunderstorm juuust north of Monroe right now. Really booming Edit: and now it's hailing! Unexpected! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Obviously it's just weather.com but this would be nice 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceKing Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 My cat woke up 3 hours later than usual. Does this mean anything for the forecast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Obviously it's just weather.com but this would be nice Rainy and cloudy on Wednesday with a low of 21. Makes perfect sense. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doinko said: Obviously it's just weather.com but this would be nice I’ve noticed weather.com has been trending colder for that time period. 2 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Applesauce said: My cat woke up 3 hours later than usual. Does this mean anything for the forecast? Yep. The weather the next two weeks will be purrrfect for weather weenies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Had a very nice ice pellet shower that started turning everything white about an hour ago when I was out blowing. That was fun! And still powerless! The PUD must only have a holiday skeleton crew working this weekend. Over 12hrs now. 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Winter Weather advisory for tomorrow: * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Lowlands of western Whatcom County, including Point Roberts, Lummi Island, Bellingham, and Sumas, Lowlands of western Skagit County, including Cypress Island, Guemes Island, Anacortes, Mount Vernon, and La Conner and Everett and vicinity, including Stanwood, Marysville, and Mountlake Terrace. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Scattered snow showers tonight into Monday morning. Showers may be heavy at times decreasing visibility. Wind advisory too: * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...San Juan County and Western Whatcom County. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM PST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 8 1 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Doinko said: Obviously it's just weather.com but this would be nice That is an awful forecast, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Drinking a bud light since Druncle is running right now. 2 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18z GFS is even snowier for the central/northern sound but still puts a giant hole in the south sound. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: I have a feeling the details will all come together eventually. Give it time! It’s coming! Mother nature loves to keep us guessing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18z GFS is a little farther south with the low Tuesday night - Wednesday. 6 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: Thunderstorm juuust north of Monroe right now. Really booming Edit: and now it's hailing! Unexpected! I saw that moving in while in Snohomish a bit ago. Huge dark clouds. Some ice coming down in the sun on the windshield on the edge of the clouds where I was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Hmmmm 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said: Hmmmm I want to believe!! When is everyone expecting the GFS to cave? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Drinking a bud light since Druncle is running right now. Getting in his mindset or is the thinking you can help enhance his abilities? In either case I'm in. I actually owe a beer chug to my fantasy league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said: Hmmmm That GFS snow map has been pretty consistent for a couple days now for Puget Sound area. Just the temps keep rising a degree or two each day in just about every model run. Big accumulations with heavy wet snow in borderline conditions is plausible and typical for marginal events like the upcoming week. Mid-30s for everyone, forever! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said: I want to believe!! When is everyone expecting the GFS to cave? It's gotta happen soon. I'd like a compromise between the Euro and GFS please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smerfylicious Posted November 27, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Over an inch of pecan to almond sized hail and its still pouring down. WOW Edit: unsure why there's also a broken video and I can't delete it...and we have wet snow in Sultan 20221127_135417.mp4 20221127_135417.mp4 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Phishy Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Snow Extent in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/snow-extent-northern-hemisphere-highest-56-years-winter-cold-rrc/ 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: That GFS snow map has been pretty consistent for a couple days now for Puget Sound area. Just the temps keep rising a degree or two each day in just about every model run. Big accumulations with heavy wet snow in borderline conditions is plausible and typical for marginal events like the upcoming week. Mid-30s for everyone, forever! Have you seen the last 2 runs? The temps are STILL ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I think a GFS / ECMWF compromise is going to happen. Interestingly the models seem to be in excellent on the dry / cold pattern for week 2 now. Nothing resembling normal anywhere in sight. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said: Have you seen the last 2 runs? The temps are STILL ridiculous. Yeah...if anything this GFS run is colder than the 12z. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Seattle north looks good Bham goes crazy 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 All in all, I'm more excited than anything about the way this is looking. Tons of chances going forward and no typical crap pattern anywhere in sight. The first third of December is going to be cold after the coldest November at least since 1993. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. Cold though. Don't rule out that chance in week two. A lot of EPS ensemble members have been really cold with that. We are going to have numerous chances to deliver some truly cold air. BTW the 0z ECMWF had very cold air spilling into WA at the end of the run as well. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. I'm just happy it's still there on the Euro. Plenty of arctic air building in BC. Hoping a polar lobe will swing our way in future rubs. It's close 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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