Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 00z GFS Day 6: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix. 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 42 minutes ago, administrator said: Let the hate flow through you. Normal people hate snow. Normal people want a mild and uneventful winter. Most of America hates the Seahawks, the most overrated team in the NFL and it is unfair to the rest of the league that players have to travel to a stadium where the weather is bad to play a team that is bad. Most of America wants the Seahawks to relocate to a real American state, like Texas or Florida. Feels good to spew. Go 49ers! My wife hates the Seahawks though she's from Western WA and she hates snow too. Meanwhile I'm so envious of Spokane and north for the midweek. It was all people talked about at our hotel near KGEG in Spokane. I'm not sure if it's the post trip /Sunday blues, or the warm nose on W/R for my location that makes me a bit bummed. I suppose I should be thankful I don't live in the L-C valley since a lot has to go right for them to get snow. I just want to vent. I expect Spokane to get far more than my location, same with Pullman but when I'm due for 1 inch and almost everyone else in the CWA- other than Lewiston - might be looking at 3-4 inches it is hard to not get jealous. That said, I know TWL will be jealous of me setting my snowboard out in a few minutes in the hope of overnight snow so I don't want to be too whiney. I can't remember if it was last winter or the winter before where we had some good snowstorms that missed anywhere north of WSU/Pullman. So I'm trying to be optimistic and not take what we have for granted. It's like a kid who gets a present for the holidays but gets a few less than their classmates. 3 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Starting to snow. Very wet and sloppy, temp down to 35.2 from 37.2 in the last 5 minutes. I'm at a higher elevation than you but no snow here. 1 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, thickhog said: It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix. bout time we got a TWL burner account from our hood 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, thickhog said: It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix. Worth noting that this is not accurate. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: My wife hates the Seahawks though she's from Western WA and she hates snow too. Meanwhile I'm so envious of Spokane and north for the midweek. It was all people talked about at our hotel near KGEG in Spokane. I'm not sure if it's the post trip /Sunday blues, or the warm nose on W/R for my location that makes me a bit bummed. I suppose I should be thankful I don't live in the L-C valley since a lot has to go right for them to get snow. I just want to vent. I expect Spokane to get far more than my location, same with Pullman but when I'm due for 1 inch and almost everyone else in the CWA- other than Lewiston - might be looking at 3-4 inches it is hard to not get jealous. That said, I know TWL will be jealous of me setting my snowboard out in a few minutes in the hope of overnight snow so I don't want to be too whiney. I can't remember if it was last winter or the winter before where we had some good snowstorms that missed anywhere north of WSU/Pullman. So I'm trying to be optimistic and not take what we have for granted. It's like a kid who gets a present for the holidays but gets a few less than their classmates. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It actually passed to our south. Favorable track, but the air mass we had to work with just wasn’t quite cold enough. Seems that factor might be pretty similar. Given the date and the preceding November mega-ridge period it’s a fun coincidence. That morning is seared into my memory. Waiting at the school bus stop in the rain, just feeling completely depressed. Probably my first big weenie loss as a young weather nerd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: Starting to snow. Very wet and sloppy, temp down to 35.2 from 37.2 in the last 5 minutes. Radar shows it snowing here but it's all rain and 37.2 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: I'm also a Raiders fan so that gif is pretty tame :P. 1 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, thickhog said: It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix. It's how I feel with Tacoma and Puyallup. Constantly seeing that I'm in the donut hole on maps. We're cursed as hell. 1 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 The week ahead, 2M temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: That morning is seared into my memory. Waiting at the school bus stop in the rain, just feeling completely depressed. Probably my first big weenie loss as a young weather nerd. I was lucky enough to be out of town that week. It snowed in Olympia! Edited November 28, 2022 by Deweydog 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Nelsen has broken his silence. 1 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to never believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said: It's how I feel with Tacoma and Puyallup. Constantly seeing that I'm in the donut hole on maps. We're cursed as hell. It makes it even worse when areas just north of Puyallup/Tacoma get snow and areas just south. Horrible area. The snow hole is horrible. You get warmed nose, rain shadowed, low elevation, no convergence zone and have a east wind kinda. There isn’t one positive factor for snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: It's how I feel with Tacoma and Puyallup. Constantly seeing that I'm in the donut hole on maps. We're cursed as hell. I don't think you're going to miss much. This has been death by a thousand paper cuts with fcst temps creeping up each day. We're still far enough from Friday that something could happen. Friday has been an inconsistent mess in the models for about a week now. A little potential still left with the right shift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, Deweydog said: I was lucky enough to be out of town that week. It snowed in Olympia! The South Sound did great with that one... same here. It was our first big snowfall after moving into this house. I clearly remember my wife waking up that morning and saying that it looks like we live at Snoqualmie Pass. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to ever believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 What a crappy run. Wow. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 00z GFS Day 7: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 00z GFS Day 8: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 That Greenland block is absolutely enormous. I wonder how many standard deviations above normal the 500mb heights are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It makes it even worse when areas just north of Puyallup/Tacoma get snow and areas just south. Horrible area. The snow hole is horrible. You get warmed nose, rain shadowed, low elevation, no convergence zone and have a east wind kinda. There isn’t one positive factor for snow On the plus side, it's really good motivation to work/study hard and move elsewhere that's snowier within Western WA. I'm thinking North Bend or somewhere higher up along the King/Snohomish county line. 2 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: That Greenland block is absolutely enormous. I wonder how many standard deviations above normal the 500mb heights are. 69 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to never believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes This seems to be the worst l've seen it perform. Not only is it way off temperature wise it shows snow all the time while the temps couldn't possibly support it. It seems ridiculous that we would spend hours detailing every nuance of it's output when we know it's pure crap. Knowing this I still like seeing the phony forecasts it produces. Weenie psychosis 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Bad run PDX doesn't even touch freezing. Only thing we have learned from this is that the GFS is seriously worthless. Long live king euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What a crappy run. Wow. Nah. Raging split flow with a Winter drought pattern would be crappy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said: There is a large and intense hunk of moisture that looks like it will just skirt to my south over the next hour or so. Models still are undecided whether it's going to snow up here tonight, but with a temperature of 43F currently, 850mb temps around -5C and 925mb temps hovering right at 0C, I'm suspicious. I guess if it hangs around long enough it will bring the temp down, but if it was anything frozen it would more likely be hail than snow. It could be quite good for Randy in the coming hours though. I probably should of overstayed my welcome up north ! Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I’d really enjoy living out near @MR.SNOWMIZER. Just a better place for snow and super close to green mountain which is about 1600’. Can just go for a hike and get snow in a marginal situation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just a light mix now but temp is down to 34.3. 2 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: Bad run PDX doesn't even touch freezing. Only thing we have learned from this is that the GFS is seriously worthless. Long live king euro. We will need to plug it into our machine learning weather model. The advanced AI will objectively apply this lesson moving forward. But this place will be a lot more boring because we will all KNOW it is not going to snow. Edited November 28, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Continued multiple chances for lowland snow in western Washington on this run. 9 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Going to be funny if it actually dumps snow in Seattle. I prepared today for heavy snow Tuesday night. Filled gas cans, started generator. Looking like a huge wet snow event here and it will probably be destructive. 5 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darrington Troll Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 33 degrees and moderate snow - appears to be setting in for the night. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I'm surprised Mark even put some flakes in the 7 day. None of the models currently show any chance of sticking snow in the Willamette valley in the next 7 days though I think that could still change with fairly minor tweaks to the evolution of this pattern. I suspect there will still be a clear north south gradient this round however. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Currently 38. At 0.19” of rain so far for the day. Might get some more today if the convergence zone slides south before midnight. 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 00z is snowier than the 18z 1 3 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Down to 38 here but still solidly in the shadow for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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